Most likely upsets in March Madness: Watch out for these four Cinderella teams

John Fanta

College Basketball Broadcaster and Reporter

It’s what makes the NCAA Tournament the best postseason in all of American sports. It’s where David can beat Goliath, where the unthinkable becomes reality, and where a kid can become a household name with one shot or performance.

A Cinderella story in sports is found almost every year in college basketball, with a double-digit seed captivating the country with a shocking victory or run. Whether it’s George Mason in 2006 or VCU going from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011, to Saint Peter’s knocking off Kentucky in the opening round and flying to the Elite Eight or UMBC and FDU making history as the first 16-seeds to beat a 1-seed, Thursday and Friday are two of the very best days on the sports calendar because you really do not know what or who the story is going to be by the end of the day.

Before we analyze some Cinderella candidates, how about some research from our FOX Sports team? Since 2018, here are the records for Round of 64 matchups in the NCAA Tournament.

1 vs. 16: 1-seed is 22-2
2 vs. 15: 2-seed is 21-3
3 vs. 14: 3-seed is 22-2
4 vs. 13: 4-seed is 17-7
5 vs. 12: 5-seed is 16-8
6 vs. 11: Even at 12-12
7 vs. 10: 7-seed is 14-9
8 vs. 9: 8-seed is 8-16

The two main takeaways: The 11-seeds, which are VCU, Drake, North Carolina and the winner of Xavier/Texas, are dangerous. I am buying the Bulldogs to pull off an upset victory over 6-seed Missouri behind Bennett Stirtz and a top-50 defense. While I don’t have VCU pulling off an upset against BYU, I think there’s a very real chance we see the 6/11 games evened up again. Ole Miss will meet UNC in the first round, and the Tar Heels should present some challenges for a Rebels squad that has lost five of its last eight games. And then there’s Illinois, a program trying to put its best basketball together behind Kasparas Jakucionis as they await the winner of a sizzling Xavier team and a Texas side powered by freshman phenom Tre Johnson.

I’d be shocked if we saw complete and total chaos in the Final Four like two years ago with UConn, Miami, San Diego State and Florida Atlantic just because the top of the country is so stacked. But that doesn’t take away from the fact that I don’t trust certain 3/4/5/6 seeds that could get picked off.

Here are four Cinderella candidates to keep an eye on.

South Region: No. 12 seed UC San Diego

This is a great college basketball story. UC San Diego, which is in just its fifth year in Division I, is having a historic season with a 30-4 record and a Big West regular season and tournament crown. And they have a star to prove it in senior Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, who is averaging 19.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game for his team. Tait-Jones, who is a Division II transfer from Hawaii-Hilo, charges an offense that has four players averaging double figures with Tyler McGhie, Hayden Gray and Nordin Kapic.

While it’s not an easy draw to have to face Big Ten Tournament champion Michigan, the Wolverines‘ weakness, turning the ball over at times, could play right into the Tritons‘ hands. UC San Diego is No. 1 in the nation with a +7.2 turnover margin, a whole turnover better than the next best teams (Merrimack, Marquette, Ole Miss).

So, I will ride with the Tritons, and they’re the shocker of my bracket picks, stunning Auburn in a David-over-Goliath game and advancing to the Elite Eight before bowing out to Michigan State.

West Region: No. 11 seed Drake

Drake athletic director Brian Hardin made an outstanding hire, bringing in Ben McCollum from the Division II level after Darian DeVries left for West Virginia. McCollum, who won four national championships with three in a row from 2019-22 and a combined 20 conference championships, hit the ground running, bringing in Bennett Stirtz, Daniel Abreu, Mitch Mascari and Isaiah Jackson from his previous stop at Northwest Missouri State.

Stirtz, the 6-foot-4 junior who averages 19.4 points, 5.7 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game, has the opportunity to write a legendary script if he gets cooking from downtown, where he shoots close to 39%.

On the other end of the floor, Drake is only allowing 58 PPG and averaging 5.6 made triples per game. This team can really guard at a high level. They play at a very slow tempo and need to maintain that place against a Mizzou team that can score in a hurry and will want to speed up the Bulldogs.

If Mascari can contribute from deep, Tavion Banks can stay hot, and the Bulldogs can keep Caleb Grill from going nuclear on your defense, McCollum’s team will have a shot.

East Region: No. 13 seed Akron

Before 2022, Akron had not reached the NCAA Tournament in close to a decade. Now, all the Zips do is win men’s basketball crowns in the Mid-American Conference with three tournament championships in the last four years.

And this year, John Groce’s team is making history, winning 21 of the last 22 games and suffering just one loss (at Ohio on 2/22) since the calendar turned to 2025. The Zips have a junior guard in Nate Johnson who went off over the last two games with a combined 53 points along with an 18-for-29 mark en route to winning MAC Men’s Basketball Tournament MVP honors.

Johnson is not the only stud that Groce has at the controls. Junior guard Tavari Johnson made the decision to return for a third year at the program, something his head coach gives him a lot of credit for in regard to staying the course and trusting in the process. Johnson is shooting close to 40% from 3-point territory, while Brooklyn native and senior Isaiah Gray is another solid supplemental weapon who averages close to double figures.

Drawing Arizona isn’t easy with Caleb Love playing alongside Jaden Bradley, but Groce said his team should not be overwhelmed by the Wildcats. The Zips rank 16th in the country in adjusted tempo, something that could prove to be huge because they’ll be no stranger to the fast and up-and-down playing style. If Akron can keep Love from getting in a rhythm and reach their average of 11 made triples per game, then they will have a shot in this one. If Love is in rhythm and Tobe Awaka is pounding the glass, Arizona is winning. It’s a really compelling game and the pace should be a lot of fun, but I’ll go with the Zips.

Midwest Region: No. 13 seed High Point

I am buying that High Point can beat Purdue because the Big South champions are having an excellent season and are averaging close to 83 PPG with an offense that sits in the top-25 of KenPom. If they’re going to win this game, Texas Tech transfer D’Maurian Williams and FGCU transfer Chase Johnston, who leads the team with 70 made triples on the season, have to help. Senior guard Kezza Giffa has averaged 52 points in the last three ASUN Tournament games.

My question with High Point comes from the defensive side of the ball. If the Panthers don’t stay glued to Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, along with the man inside in Trey Kaufman-Renn, it’s going to be a long night.

It feels like it’s only a matter of time before the Panthers pull off an upset. As good as Smith, Loyer and Kaufman-Renn are for Purdue, I do think there’s a level of predictability. Can High Point use its defense to pull off the upset? We shall see, and it’s all part of an epic slate in Providence.

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.

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