Just 10 days separate us from learning the 68-team field in the NCAA Tournament. Bracket season is upon us and the madness is well underway, with multiple bubble results already taking place this week and a mammoth slate of games on the docket this weekend. The headliner is the North Carolina Tar Heels, who have a win-and-in game against No. 2 Duke on Saturday at the Dean Dome.
Coach Hubert Davis is trying to avoid a second missed trip to the Big Dance in the past three years. While his job is safe after it was reported that he signed a two-year contract extension in December 2024 to take him through 2030, the idea of being on the wrong side of the bubble again this year would mean that he must win in the 2025-26 campaign. That said, opportunity knocks Saturday when a Duke team that has lost just once since Nov. 6 comes to Chapel Hill.
This feels like a real uphill battle for UNC, but not many teams get the luxury of a win-and-in game this time of year — and there’s no question that a victory over a Duke squad that sits at No. 1 in NET, KenPom and Torvik would clinch a spot for the Tar Heels. Their résumé? There’s not enough quality to it, with UNC having a 1-10 record against Quadrant 1 teams and that one quality win (a neutral site victory over UCLA) getting negated by a Quad 3 home loss to Stanford. UNC’s NET is 38, a solid ranking compared to others on the bubble and one that is better than Arkansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Xavier. UNC’s “wins above bubble” sits at 44th in the country (+1.0), while the KPI, which ranks every team’s wins and losses on a positive-to-negative scale, places it outside the top 50.
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The point? The Tar Heels will be sweating heavily on Selection Sunday if they lose to Duke and don’t steal a bid in the ACC Tournament. What will the keys be for UNC to have a shot? The Tar Heels have to defend better, and they’ve got to make a decision about defending Cooper Flagg — make him just a scorer or just a facilitator, because if he’s doing both well, they’re in for a long night. RJ Davis has to play like a first-team All-American, while Ian Jackson and Seth Trimble must deliver when they free up with perimeter looks.
There’s a huge bubble bowl in Bloomington, Indiana, on Saturday when Indiana hosts Ohio State. The Hoosiers, who fell at Oregon earlier this week, seem to be in a solid spot to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament and can all but officially lock up a spot with a win over the Buckeyes. Indiana has four Quad 1 wins and zero defeats outside Q1. That’s normally pretty valuable to the selection committee, as is the fact that Indiana only played four Quad 4 games. One of the Hoosiers’ four Quad 1 wins came at Ohio State back on Jan. 17 when Luke Goode hit a clutch 3 and Anthony Leal put up a game-sealing block in the final seconds to seal a victory. Indiana is coming off a 73-64 defeat at Oregon in which Myles Rice and Mackenzie Mgbako were held to a combined 3-for-17 shooting from the field, but the Hoosiers are 13-4 at home as opposed to 5-8 away from Assembly Hall. Winning Saturday would help ensure Indiana isn’t sweating on Selection Sunday, but Ohio State has momentum coming into Bloomington after a 116-114 double-overtime victory over fellow bubble team Nebraska. Bruce Thornton led the Buckeyes with 29 points and nine assists.
I agree with FOX Sports college basketball bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy that the Buckeyes should be in the 68-team field because of a win on a neutral floor over Kentucky coupled with a victory at Purdue. Ohio State has six Quad 1 wins, and while a 3-3 Quad 2 record isn’t great, this team doesn’t own a backbreaking defeat and their résumé is pretty solid all around. The difference between the Buckeyes and another bubble team like Nebraska is the fact the Huskers own two Quad 3 losses. The Huskers host Iowa on Sunday in a must-win game.
Let’s assess other bubble winners and losers!
The Razorbacks looked defeated on Saturday in a loss to South Carolina, but John Calipari’s team bounced back with a 90-77 victory at Vanderbilt. Johnell Davis had 21 points in the victory, showing why he was such a good portal pickup for Calipari. A home date with a Mississippi State team that is top-35 in the NET is another strong chance for Arkansas to make a case. If the Razorbacks win Saturday and aren’t the auto-bid from the SEC Tournament, I could see them in Dayton as one of the first four teams in. TV networks would certainly like that.
Oklahoma (Bubble winner)
If you’re firmly on the bubble at this point and need to move the needle with a win, you have to seize it. The Sooners did just that, shooting 57% from the floor in a dominant win over a Missouri team that stands at 15 in NET. Jeremiah Fears looks every bit the part of a first-round NBA Draft pick, scoring 31 points on 9-of-13 shooting from the floor while delivering five assists. He has sensational upside, but for now, he’s keeping Oklahoma alive for a bid.
The Bearcats’ offense just hasn’t been good enough. They went 2-of-18 from 3 in a loss to Kansas State and don’t have a true alpha scorer. With just one Quad 1 win and a combined 11-13 record versus the other three quadrants combined, I don’t think there’s enough meat on the bone. I’d say Cincinnati is out.
Xavier (Bubble winner)
The Musketeers have won 11 of their past 14 contests, and they routed Butler at Hinkle Fieldhouse, 91-78, in what was perceived as a potential trap game. Coach Sean Miller told me that Zach Freemantle’s level of play and his attitude is one that matches the pros and that he realizes this is it for him in college basketball as a senior. We’re watching that play out, with Freemantle and Ryan Conwell really turning it up on a daily basis.
Tensions rose down the stretch in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday night. Coach Ed Cooley wanted to quadruple his Big East win count, while Kyle Neptune was trying to save his job. Yet, the Cats have lost two games to Georgetown by a grand total of three points. With two Quad 3 losses and another in Quad 4, the Cats just have too many blemishes to overcome.
What a final week and a half on deck in college basketball. For some, bubbles will be popped. For others, they won’t have to worry about a thing on Selection Sunday. Then there’s those middling bubble teams that are trying to find a way in. There will be no shortage of those teams in the mix here down the stretch. Let’s see what happens. It’s the most wonderful time of the year for a reason!
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.
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