Patrick Mahomes has not only lived up to his $500 million contract, the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback’s value has actually exceeded that deal. Yup, apparently, half a billion has been a discount.
Since 2020, Mahomes has appeared in the AFC Championship Game every year. He has been to four Super Bowls and won two. So it’s fair to say the Chiefs are content with what they’ve paid their quarterback.
But is Mahomes?
It’s possible the Chiefs and Mahomes will re-engage in contract negotiations to fairly compensate, arguably, the best football player on the planet.
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He is not the uncontested best player on the planet because of NFL MVP Josh Allen, who just signed a new deal with the Buffalo Bills. And that contract could make things fairly complicated for Mahomes and Kansas City.
Allen signed a new contract with his team on Sunday that’s worth six years and $330 million. That sends his cap hit 19.7% to 13th in the NFL. That’s for a guy who is, at worst, the third-best quarterback in the NFL. So it’s a generous number. He could have easily stayed up in the top two, where he was with Joe Burrow in 2024, when Allen’s average annual value of cap was 23.6%.
We don’t have to get too deep into the math.
But here’s what the Bills have been dealing with at a macro level. As Allen’s contract takes up more space in the cap, the Bills have fewer opportunities to fill out the roster. So Buffalo’s team was short on talent this year. Now, that actually helped Allen win the MVP honor. Quarterback Lamar Jackson had the better stats. Allen, however, had more to overcome, with six of his team’s starters departing by trade, cuts or free agency from 2023. The idea — with this new contract — might be that Allen is forgoing his earnings to help his team build a deeper roster.
He doesn’t want another MVP. He wants a Super Bowl.
Allen could have easily reset the quarterback market. He could easily have asked for more money than Dak Prescott, whose deal averages $60 million per year. But that would hold his team back from building out its roster. He instead took a selfless approach.
It’s similar to what Tom Brady did with the Patriots. This is, to some degree, what Mahomes has been doing with the Chiefs.
When a player establishes himself in the ways that Brady and Mahomes have done, they can afford to cut a few (million) bucks here and there in their NFL earnings. Their name-brand notoriety is so substantial that they’re going to make plenty of side-hustle income through endorsements and other paid opportunities in their careers.
It’s unusual to see someone like Allen take a pay cut of this scale considering that Buffalo is a small market. The opportunities might not be as robust. And Allen hasn’t won a Super Bowl. He hasn’t even appeared in one. But that lack of hardware is likely why Allen is trading dollars in hopes it brings championships.
That spells trouble for Mahomes and the Chiefs in two ways. Obviously, the Bills are chasing the Chiefs. The way to the Super Bowl still runs through Kansas City. If Allen is taking a pay cut to improve the Bills roster, that’s bad news for K.C. But it’s also a tough situation for Mahomes. When he wants a new deal, there really isn’t a limit for what he could request in average annual value.
In 2024, Mahomes’ deal accounted for the sixth-most among QBs (22.7%). It will account for the fifth-highest percentage in 2025. (And remember, Allen is now down at 13th.)
Mahomes dealt with many of the same issues as Allen last year. His supporting cast wasn’t what it once was. The Chiefs defense was outstanding, perhaps apart from their Super Bowl performance. But the offense had glaring holes at left tackle and receiver, particularly when the team suffered a handful of injuries throughout the season. And those shortcomings caught up with them in Super Bowl LIX when the Eagles won in a blowout.
If the Chiefs and Bills are going to engage in an arms race, it will actually be The Arms — the quarterbacks — who help with the funding. Allen has made concessions to help the Bills not just retain their stars (like young top-tier starters Khalil Shakir and Gregory Rousseau) but also go out and get more help.
Will that pressure Mahomes to do the same?
This isn’t to say that he should, by the way. I’m a firm believer that every player should fight for what he feels he deserves in the NFL, a league that’s about as non-commital and ephemeral as any in sport. But Allen has officially put Mahomes in an uncomfortable position. Allen is showing he’ll give up tens of millions to beat Mahomes. Will Mahomes follow suit?
Most of the time, we’re talking about how high a quarterback can go. Can they reset the market? Will a QB hit $65 million this offseason?
But in the cases of Allen and Mahomes, we might be talking about a game of limbo.
How low can you go?
Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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