With just a couple of weeks until the 2025 NFL Draft, and only a few weeks removed from NFL free agency, we are constantly reminded that this league is a year-round sport.
The NFL is always on the minds of fans and sports bettors, and sportsbooks around the country have taken it upon themselves to post Over/Under season win total projections for every team.
If nothing else, it’s a good thought exercise. We can see what numbers the books project for certain teams, compare those to our own opinions and perhaps find some betting opportunities in the process.
The highest win totals on the board are the usual suspects. The Chiefs, Eagles, Ravens and Bills are all listed at 11.5 wins. The lowest number out there is 4.5, with the Cleveland Browns not eliciting much optimism from oddsmakers or from bettors.
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With these numbers still fresh, two teams jumped out to me as being well worth a wager.
New England Patriots Under 8.5 Wins
My thought process here is simple: How can the Patriots be expected to be over .500?
I was shocked to see this number open at 8.5. The Patriots are coming off of a 4-13 season, a season that saw them get outscored by 128 points combined over the course of the year. I understand there’s optimism for second-year quarterback Drake Maye, and new head coach Mike Vrabel gives the Patriots what most would consider an upgrade over Jerod Mayo.
You might remember, Mayo was fired after just one season at the helm.
Vrabel has a great reputation, but since pulling off a pair of upsets in the 2019 playoffs, he has not won a playoff game. His Titans’ team lost home playoff games in 2020 and 2021, then missed the playoffs altogether in 2022 and 2023. The organization then let him go.
Vrabel is a solid coach, but I think his presence is giving this number a bump that I don’t think is necessarily warranted.
Admittedly, the schedule is not overly difficult for the Patriots, but they do still have to play road games against the Bills, Ravens, Bengals and Buccaneers. The Patriots should improve from last year, but jumping from four wins to nine is a bridge too far. The Under is the play here.
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Dallas Cowboys Over 7.5 Wins
Another number that jumped off the page when looking at these win totals? The number that’s next to the Dallas Cowboys.
America’s Team had a disappointing 2024, but prior to that, Dallas had strung together three consecutive 12-win seasons. Even last year, with quarterback Dak Prescott missing more than half of the year, the Cowboys still found their way to a respectable 7-10 record.
The hire of head coach Brian Schottenheimer was indeed a curious one, but the constant discussion in the media of the Cowboys’ struggles is what I believe to be the driving force behind such low expectations. They get covered so much, that their problems get magnified and therefore exaggerated. Prescott might not be a top-five quarterback, but 14 months ago, he was voted second in the NFL MVP race.
He’s a very productive player at the sport’s most important position.
The Cowboys have home games against the Jets, Panthers and Raiders in 2025, as well as two games against the lowly Giants. Bouncing back and getting to eight wins or more should be in the cards this year for Jerry’s ‘Boys.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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