‘It’s not even a debate’: Books say Arch Manning will be favored at No. 1 in 2026

Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

With the first-round dust finally settled after day one of the 2025 NFL Draft, we are only 364 days away from the 2026 episode in Pittsburgh.

I would love to strum up a hot take about next year’s No. 1 overall pick, but it’s shaping up to be one of the most obvious slam dunks of all-time. It’s almost a certainty there will be a late-season tank-off next year among the league’s worst teams for the gunslinger with the Hall of Fame last name.

That player, of course, is Arch Manning.

The Texas sophomore is unquestionably the top overall prospect, despite only throwing 95 passes and nine touchdowns at the collegiate level. Scouts have salivated over Peyton and Eli’s nephew for years, and he’ll finally get to show what he’s made of as Steve Sarkisian’s starter this coming fall.

“It’s not even a debate,” one professional sports bettor told FOX Sports. “You’re going to see a massive price on Arch when the market goes up.

“Sportsbooks aren’t stupid. They’ll bloat the price and make you lay thousands to win a hundred. If I worked at DraftKings or FanDuel, I would open him -3000 to go first. There’s no reason to give it away at anything less.

“He’s the guy if he comes out.”

I can only imagine the price if everything goes to plan down in Austin. Assuming Manning lives up to the hype and plays anywhere near a Heisman-level quarterback, he’ll be astronomically expensive come mid-March when draft betting generally starts to heat up among the public.

Remember, former No. 1 overall picks like Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams were being offered at -10000 or higher about a month before their respective drafts. And Cam Ward reached those levels in early April.

Heisman Trophy odds via BetOnline

Arch Manning: +600 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Grant Nussmeier: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Jeremiah Smith: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Cade Klubnik: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Julian Sayin: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
LaNorris Sellers: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Nico Iamaleava: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)

I wrote a story three summers ago about Manning’s gambling impact on Texas football and spoke to a slew of Las Vegas betting buddies for that story. The common theme was that Manning’s arrival would be a magnet for surrounding talent.

“[Arch’s signing] speaks to the quality of recruits they’re bringing in and the program being on the right track,” college football wizard and former Circa Sports sportsbook director Matt Metcalf told me way back in July 2022.

“I would be surprised if Sarkisian doesn’t have success there, as he’s a great offensive guy, and it shouldn’t be difficult to get the pieces there.”

It should surprise nobody that Texas is one of the favorites (along with Ohio State) to win next year’s College Football Playoff. The Horns are as low as +450 at the Westgate SuperBook and as high as +650 at FanDuel.

And after reaching the national semifinals a season ago, expectations will be even higher with the former Isidore Newman superstar under center.

Manning headlines a star-studded quarterback class that could also see LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Penn State’s Drew Allar and Miami’s Carson Beck go in the first round next year. Only two quarterbacks — Ward and Jaxson Dart — were selected on Thursday night.

Stay tuned.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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