2025 MLB home run leader odds: Can Shohei Ohtani challenge Aaron Judge?

Last updated: 2025/05/16 at 3:41 PM

BigP Published May 16, 2025

Everyone digs the long ball.

“Home runs” is one of those statistics that seems to hold more weight than other statistics.

In two of the last three years, Aaron Judge has led the league in dingers. The year he didn’t Iead Major League Baseball in homers, he missed nearly 60 games.

Let’s take a look at the odds on who is favored to lead the major leagues in home runs in 2025 at FanDuel Sportsbook as of May 16.

Most regular-season home runs

Aaron Judge: -190 (bet $10 to win $15.26 total)
Shohei Ohtani: +470 (bet $10 to win $57 total)
Kyle Schwarber: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Pete Alonso: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Cal Raleigh: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)

Judge and Ohtani had quite the race last season, with the Yankees superstar hitting 58 and the Dodgers superstar finishing with 54. Ohtani also became the first player in MLB history to hit over 50 homers and steal over 50 bases.

In 2022, Judge hit a career-high and American League record 62 home runs, and after last season, he has three seasons tallying over 50 home runs in a single season (2017, 2022, 2024).

As for Ohtani, he led the AL in home runs in 2023 with 44 (the year Judge was battling injuries) before leading the NL in home runs last season.

Ohtani’s previous career high in home runs was 46 in 2021.

This year, the two sluggers are once again in a hotly-contested race in the first part of the season, with both sitting at 15 as of May 16, tied with Philly’s Kyle Schwarber, who is third on the oddsboard.

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