2025 NBA, NHL Playoffs best bets: Back Clippers, Avalanche to start hot

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

A lot of you know me as the football guy when it comes to placing wagers. And yes, I played in the NFL and love the league and college football, but I enjoy the entire spectrum when it comes to sports.

Especially when it comes to playoff ball — or puck, in some cases.

Since we’re all watching the exciting action of the NBA and NHL Playoffs, I decided to do some research and give you spots that I like the most for Thursday’s games.

Let’s take a look.

Denver Nuggets @ LA Clippers

This has been a fantastic series. We’ve seen buzzer-beaters, come-from-behind wins and a few games that got out of hand for the home team.

The Nuggets head into Game 6 with a 3-2 series lead, after beating the Clippers 131-115 in Game 5. Now the series turns to Game 6 and the Clippers are in a must-win situation at home. I always make a first-quarter wager in these situations instead of on the full game where the better team can take over at the end.

First-quarter wagers in the NBA playoffs are my favorite. In Game 1 scenarios, the home team — who is often better than its opponent — is trying to start fast in front of its crowd. Six of the eight home teams covered the first quarter in Game 1 of Round 1 this postseason.

I also apply the same theory for Game 3 situations, where the home team is back on its own court and feeding off that fan energy early on. The home team covered only half of the first quarters in Game 3 situations this postseason.

Once the series gets to Games 5, 6 or 7, there are targeted opportunities to grab first quarters when the home team has to win.

The Clippers must win Thursday night. And I’m wagering that they start fast — just like in Game 3, when they were leading the Nuggets by seven points after one quarter.

PICK: Clippers (-2.5) to lead by more than 2.5 points at the end of the first quarter

Tim Hardaway Jr. O/U point total

I’m a big subscriber to the zigzag theory in the NBA postseason. Essentially, a player under-performs and you take his Overs the following game. This isn’t a wager you make for every player that doesn’t play well, but there are circumstances where it makes sense.

Tim Hardaway Jr. fits the perfect mold for this wager. Hardaway is a player who averages nearly 12 points a game and shows a tendency to take more shots and score more points at home. In this series, he has scored 19, zero and eight in the three road games, shooting 4-for-23 from the 3-point line in those three games. Meanwhile, he’s scored 24 and 14 in the Pistons‘ two home games, going 11-for-25 from 3.

He’s coming off an eight-point Game 5, with just one 3-pointer made.

I like Hardaway to regain his form in Game 6.

PICK: Tim Hardaway Jr. to score Over 12.5 points

Are the Knicks serious title contenders?

Vegas Golden Knights @ Minnesota Wild

I’m going to stay away from the first game of the night in Ottawa, as the Senators look to even the series at 3-3 after going down 3-0 to the Maple Leafs. The scar tissue of previous Maple Leafs’ failures in this spot will hang heavy on the franchise. Not a good wagering opportunity in either direction.

The Golden Knights reclaimed home ice with a Game 5 win to lead the series 3-2, after some inconsistent play as the series favorites. The series now heads back to Minnesota, with the Wild needing a win to stay alive.

I like two wagers in this game.

The first is a system play that I’ve found, courtesy of Jonathan Davis, host of “Ice Cap” on SiriusXM and a VSiN NHL betting analyst. As of writing this on Wednesday, the team that lost the previous game has scored the first goal in 19 of 29 games. So that’s a 19-10 record with this series being 2-2 on that trend.

I like the Wild to make that trend 3-2 on Thursday night.

The first goal has been scored by the home team in four of these five games, and the Wild need a win to keep the series alive. They will look to score quickly to set the tone.

PICK: Wild (+105) to score first

Wild wing Kirill Kaprizov has been a dominant force in this series. He’s had at least one point in all five games, going over 1.5 points in three contests. He’s had assists in three games while scoring goals in another three contests. The Wild will need Kaprizov to be outstanding once again to help them get back to Vegas for Game 7.

PICK: Kirill Kaprizov (+145) Over 1.5 points

Dallas Stars @ Colorado Avalanche

Same situation as the game above with the system play. It’s a home team needing a win, as it is coming off a loss. In this series, the home team has scored first in four of the five games, including the Stars scoring in the first 11 seconds of Game 5, with a shot that hit the back of the Avs’ goaltender before settling into the net.

The losing team has scored the first goal in three of the games as well. So let’s go with the Avalanche to score the first goal of this game.

PICK: Avalanche (-150) to score first

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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