In NFL season win totals, quarterbacks and coaches are the linchpin of expectations.
The New England Patriots grabbed QB Drake Maye third overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, solving the first part of that equation.
Then in January, the Pats fired first-year coach Jerod Mayo following a 4-13 campaign. To replace Mayo, the team brought in another former New England linebacker, but a more veteran coach in Mike Vrabel.
Bettors seem to think Maye and Vrabel are a good combination.
“The New England Patriots are taking a lot of Over money. We opened at 7.5 wins, and we are up to 8.5,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Feazel serves up more insights on the Patriots and a few other notable teams in NFL win total odds.
Patriot Games
New England is actually coming off back-to-back 4-13 seasons, and those were preceded by an 8-9 record in 2022-23. The Patriots haven’t reached the playoffs since going 10-7 in 2021-22, when they got drilled 47-17 by Buffalo in the wild-card round.
But early action shows bettors think Over 7.5 wins — and perhaps Over 8.5, for a winning season — is a possibility this year.
“There’s a lot of positivity in the offseason, with the addition of Mike Vrabel,” Feazel said of the former Titans coach taking the helm in New England. “And the schedule does the Patriots a couple favors, too.”
New England’s schedule includes two dates with the AFC East rival New York Jets. New York is tied for the lowest NFL win total in the market at 5.5, along with the New Orleans Saints, New York Giants and Cleveland Browns.
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As it turns out, the Pats host the Giants and the Browns, and they have a road date vs. the Saints. New England also has a home game vs. the Carolina Panthers, whose win total is 6.5.
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The Big Lousy
Unlike the Patriots, the Saints are unsettled at quarterback.
Last season, New Orleans went 5-12, and starter Derek Carr played in just 10 games. In Week 14, Carr suffered a broken left (non-throwing) hand and also entered concussion protocol.
That combo ended Carr’s season. Then, in late March, Carr revealed he had a shoulder injury. Somewhat surprisingly, on May 10, the 11-year QB announced his retirement.
“The elephant in the room is Derek Carr retiring from the Saints,” Feazel said. “We opened their win total at 6.5, and now we’re down to 5.5 (Under -155).”
That means bookmakers’ expectation for the Saints is five victories or fewer in NFL season win total odds.
New Orleans could see rookie QB Tyler Shough— drafted in the second round — or second-year QB Spencer Rattler starting this season. That has bettors going against the Saints, and not just in NFL win totals, which have been on the board since March 27.
“There’s a lot of action on the prop bet of New Orleans to have the worst record in the NFL this year,” Feazel said.
The Saints are the +425 favorite to post the league’s worst record. Close behind are the Giants (+550) and Browns (+575), with New York’s win total at 5.5 (Under -130) and Cleveland’s at 5.5 (Under -125).
“The Saints don’t look like they will be very competitive this year. They seem to be accepting their fate that they’re in rebuild mode,” Feazel said.
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The Giants were 3-14 last season, tied with the Browns and Titans for the league’s worst record. So this year, New York getting beyond 5.5 in NFL season win totals would actually represent significant improvement.
But bettors aren’t seeing it.
“We’ve seen some sharp bets on Under 5.5 early,” Feazel said.
A key reason for that is the Giants’ schedule, particularly over the first two months:
The Eagles and Commanders met in last season’s NFC Championship Game, with the Eagles advancing and ultimately rolling over the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. The Chargers and Broncos were also playoff teams last season, and the Niners were NFC contenders for a few years before an injury-plagued 2024-25 season.
“The Giants’ easiest opponent is the Saints in Week 5,” Feazel said. “It’s gonna be a tough start to the year. And that might lead to Jaxson Dart starting early.”
New York took Dart with the 25th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. He’s currently third on the depth chart, behind offseason acquisitions Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston.
Over Drive
Along with the Patriots, Feazel noted two teams sparking optimism in early bettors: the Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Rams.
Minnesota had a phenomenal 2024-25 regular season behind Sam Darnold, going 14-3. But because the Detroit Lions went 15-2, the Vikes earned only a wild-card bid and fell to the Rams 27-9 in the playoff opener.
The Vikings then decided to pin their future QB hopes on J.J. McCarthy, who missed his rookie season with a knee injury. Darnold moved on to the Seattle Seahawks, signing a three-year, $100 million deal — a price tag that was surely part of the Vikings’ calculus.
With ostensibly a first-year QB, Minnesota is at a relatively modest 8.5 in Caesars’ NFL season win total odds. But the Over is up to a -150 favorite.
“The Vikings are going with McCarthy instead of Darnold, which leads to the question: Is it just a great system?” Feazel said. “We’ve seen a lot of takers and a lot of money on Over 8.5.”
The Rams’ win total sits at 9.5, with the Over a solid -165 favorite.
“The Rams are also taking some Over money. They have Matthew Stafford still. They were only a play away from reaching the NFC Championship Game last season,” Feazel said, alluding to L.A.’s 28-22 divisional-round loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. “There’s a lot of love for the Rams.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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