6 NFL teams whose win totals changed drastically from last season

Following the NFL’s schedule release on May 14, it’s time to take a look at each team’s Over/Under win total heading into the 2025 season.

These lines can gauge where teams sit following free agency and the NFL Draft, and as OTAs begin.

They can also indicate how teams have improved or taken a step back over the last 365 days.

Here are the teams whose Over/Under win totals have changed the most this offseason in comparison to where they were last offseason.

Cleveland Browns

2024 preseason O/U win total: 8.5
2025 preseason O/U win total: 4.5

The Browns didn’t come close to their win total last season (3-14), as Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston and Dorian Thompson-Robinson all struggled under center. And coming into this season, they haven’t made many strides to fix their QB issues. Watson will enter the year on the injured reserve list, and Cleveland waited until the later rounds of the 2025 NFL Draft to select Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, who could compete with veteran Joe Flacco for the starting job. Cleveland will open its season against six teams that finished 2024 with a winning record, and will also face the annual AFC North gauntlet.

Denver Broncos

2024 preseason O/U win total: 5.5
2025 preseason O/U win total: 9.5

In Year 2 under head coach Sean Payton, the Broncos outperformed their 2024 projection behind breakout seasons from rookie quarterback Bo Nix and star cornerback Patrick Surtain, who won NFL Defensive Player of the Year. This offseason, the Broncos brought over two former 49ers, safety Talanoa Hufanga and linebacker Dre Greenlaw. They drafted Texas cornerback Jahdae Barron in the first round and also added former Jaguars tight end Evan Engram. Lastly, Denver faces the AFC South this season, one of the worst divisions in football throughout last season.

New England Patriots

2024 preseason O/U win total: 4.5
2025 preseason O/U win total: 8.5

In one season under Jerod Mayo, the Patriots lacked nuance on offense and consistency on defense. Mayo was dealt a losing hand, though, as the Patriots didn’t surround rookie quarterback Drake Maye with much talent and saw key parts of their front seven sustain mid-season injuries. Still, they moved on from Mayo to another former Patriots player — and a more proven head coach — Mike Vrabel. They also spent as much money as anyone in the free-agent market, adding defensive linemen Milton Williams and Harold Landry, linebacker Robert Spillane and cornerback Carlton Davis. They also signed free-agent Stefon Diggs and drafted Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson. Seven of the Patriots’ first nine opponents had losing records in 2024.

Is Brock Purdy’s 5-Year, $265 million extension a smart move for the 49ers?

New York Jets

2024 preseason O/U win total: 9.5
2025 preseason O/U win total: 5.5

The Jets’ expectations coming into last season were a bit lofty given Aaron Rodgers’ age and health. Even though he avoided an injury, Rodgers never quite clicked with the New York Jets’ top weapons in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. After one season, the Jets let Rodgers walk and signed quarterback Justin Fields to a two-year deal. New York returns the core of its defense, including Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams, and Jermaine Johnson. New York faces a tough early-season schedule, hosting the Steelers and Bills before traveling to play the Buccaneers. They have a favorable stretch, playing the Browns and Patriots after their Week 9 bye, and could get a pair of wins in Week 15 against the Jaguars and Week 16 at the Saints.

Washington Commanders

2024 preseason O/U win total: 6.5
2025 preseason O/U win total: 9.5

The Commanders outdid their win projection more than just about any team in 2024. They drafted the franchise QB Jayden Daniels, and behind him, Washington’s offense was humming as Daniels found a connection with receiver Terry McLaurin. Washington beefed up its defense coming into 2025, adding interior defensive linemen such as Javon Kinlaw and Eddie Goldman, along with Deatrich Wise on the edge. It got McLaurin a running mate in Deebo Samuel. Washington also reinforced both offensive tackle positions, drafting Josh Conerly Jr. in the first round and trading four draft picks to acquire Laremy Tunsil. The Commanders have favorable matchups against the Giants, Raiders, Falcons, Bears and Cowboys in the first half of their season.

Dallas Cowboys

2024 preseason O/U win total: 10
2025 preseason O/U win total: 7.5

After giving Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb expensive extensions, the Cowboys failed to build around the edges in 2024. With legendary offensive guard Zack Martin retiring, none of their offensive linemen are very experienced, so time in the pocket could be a premium for Prescott. Dallas did give him another weapon, though, trading a third-round pick for Pittsburgh receiver George Pickens, to take some pressure off Lamb. Dallas might only be favored in one divisional game — when it hosts the Giants. The Cowboys have a nice early-season stretch with road games against the Bears, Panthers and Jets. They, then, have a gauntlet between Weeks 12-17, where they face the Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, Chargers and Commanders.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!