The New York Knicks are down to their last bullet.
Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers have a commanding 3-1 series lead in the Eastern Conference finals as they now head back to Madison Square Garden for Game 5, a contest where the Knicks opened as 5-point home favorites.
Our series bread is already buttered with Pacers stock, but it’s difficult to ignore the better team catching points that’s dominated as an underdog all postseason.
Indiana is 7-2 ATS as a playoff pup.
“The Pacers have more players, more versatility,” one seasoned professional bettor warned FOX Sports before the series. “It might not be fair to this current Knicks group, but the [Tom] Thibodeau factor is real. His teams always burn out, especially his old teams back in Chicago.”
That forecast is about as close to a bullseye as it gets.
If you still believe in New York, there are big series prices available in the market. I’m not sipping that Kool-Aid at all, but if you believe the Knicks can rattle off three straight victories, there’s a +442 at Pinnacle and +450 at DraftKings.
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A $10 bill would net over $450 bucks at either one.
Knicks star Jalen Brunson continues to be a popular bet, and he’s cashed his points Over in three of the four games. Sportsbooks bumped his prop to O/U 29.5 in Game 4, and he made a layup with 16 seconds left to finish with 31.
The Brunson premium is even more expensive heading home, where BetMGM is out to 30.5 points [O -115] on the former Villanova Wildcat in a must-win Game 5.
I prefer more attainable numbers and will likely find myself on veteran Josh Hart to go Over his prop. You can bet Over 9.5 points at -105 at a ton of outs and there are worse ideas than relying on a guy who’s been around the block to deliver.
At the end of the day, my favorite Thursday night bet is the Pacers to hang inside the point spread. We’ve discussed their prowess as “playoff puppies” for weeks on my radio show Bet Sweats and there’s no reason to run from it.
I also vividly remember covering multiple Thibodeau-led Bulls teams deep in the playoffs as a young reporter in Chicago. I’ll never forget all their best players basically hitting the wall of fatigue before ever making it to the NBA Finals.
I’ve seen this movie before.
Even if New York extends the series, it should be a close game.
PICK: Indiana Pacers (+5) to lose by fewer than 5 points or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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