2025 NBA playoff predictions, odds: Back Thunder to sweep underdog Pacers

Will Hill

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

After a lengthy layoff between rounds, the NBA Finals begin on Thursday. It will feature the upstart Indiana Pacers taking on the juggernaut Oklahoma City Thunder.

These two teams have taken very different paths to get here.

The Pacers were once 10-15 in the early stages of the season and looked like they might struggle to even return to the postseason after such a sluggish start. They eventually overcame that rocky start and captured the 4-seed in the Eastern Conference.

The Thunder had no such struggles, as they enter the Finals with an absurd 80-18 overall record — including the playoffs. They even set the record for most double-digit wins as the 1-seed in the Western Conference this season.

OKC not only had a record-setting 54 wins by 10 or more but won a staggering twelve games by 30 points or more.

Sportsoddshistory.com has some fascinating tidbits about this series.

Betting on these two teams to meet in the Finals prior to the season would have paid 100-1 at BetMGM, while the Pacers were 25-1 to win the East and 66-1 to win the NBA title.

This was an incredibly unlikely run, and considering the Pacers’ 10-15 start, it’s even more amazing.

But can they finish the job? I’m skeptical.

Do the Pacers have a chance against the Thunder?

However, I am somewhat hesitant to underestimate this Pacers team, considering how impressive it has been through the first three rounds.

Indy is led by Hall of Fame coach Rick Carlisle and the aptly-named Pacers want to run and gun, playing at a fast, frenetic tempo. But that’s usually not the formula for pulling off an upset against a more talented team.

The Thunder are young, deep, and outstanding defensively. They will thrive at playing a fast-paced style. What gave the Thunder the most trouble so far this postseason was when the Nuggets dragged them into a slow, half-court game.

It also helped that Denver had three-time MVP Nikola Jokić.

I think the underdog story comes to an end here. It’ll be like when the aforementioned Nuggets quickly disposed of the underdog Heat in five games to win the championship in 2023.

The Pacers are a fantastic story, but this is a brutal matchup, considering their style of play. The Thunder, on the other hand, have a plethora of viable perimeter options for defending Pacers’ star Tyrese Haliburton.

FanDuel had “OKC to sweep” at +330 just hours before I wrote this, and it’s now the best number on the market at +290. But it’s still a bet that I would make. The Thunder are heavy -750 series favorites, and losing would be a historic Finals upset. But chalk should prevail here, as I expect the Thunder to make short work of the Pacers.

PICK: OKC (+290) 4-0 Correct Series Score
PICK: Total games Under 5.5 (-135)

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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