Thunder vs. Pacers predictions, pick: Game 3 is must-win situation for Indiana

Last updated: 2025/06/11 at 2:00 PM

BigP Published June 11, 2025

Jason McIntyre

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Pacers stole Game 1 of the NBA Finals in OKC, and then got smoked in Game 2.

Now, Indiana goes home with a chance to go up 2-1 against the Thunder, who have only trailed once in a series in these playoffs.

The Pacers haven’t lost back-to-back games since early March. The problem is, Indiana has led for fewer than two minutes total so far in the series.

Is there a case for them to steal Game 3?

For as right as I was about the Pacers against the Cavs, I was badly off on Indiana vs. the Knicks. I thought there was no way the Pacers — an above-average team on 3-pointers during the season (ninth) — could stay that hot from the perimeter.

They shot 17-for-33 from deep in Game 6 to close out the Knicks.

Through two games against OKC, Indiana is shooting 40% on 3s. If this continues, it will stay in the series.

The key for me throughout the first two games has been bench 3-point shooting. In Game 1, Obi Toppin shot 5-for-8 on 3s for the Pacers. He regressed to 1-for-5 in Game 2.

The Thunder were bolstered by two reserves getting hot from deep: Alex Caruso (4-for-8) and Aaron Wiggins (5-for-8).

Which role players will step up in Game 3?

Usually, the narrative is that role players emerge at home and shrink on the road. It could be anyone for Indiana. Thomas Bryant (came out of nowhere to hit three in Game 6 vs. NYK)? Ben Sheppard? Ben Mathurin?

When you couple that with two of the three Thunder horses struggling so far in the finals — Jalen Williams 33% FG, 22% 3FG; Chet Holmgren 40% FG, 25% 3FG — and it’s a recipe for a comfortable Pacers win.

Remember, the Thunder were down 26 to Memphis on the road in Game 3 during the first round before Ja Morant got hurt, and they were down 31 to the Wolves in Game 3 in the West finals. In both of those series, OKC was up 2-0.

Against Denver, they were tied 1-1 and lost Game 3.

If the Pacers want to have any chance to win this series, they must win on Wednesday.

PICK: Pacers (+5) to lose by fewer than 5 points or win outright
PICK: Pacers (+180) moneyline

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

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