Thunder vs. Pacers predictions, picks: Back SGA to surpass assist total

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The NBA Finals continue on Friday after the Indiana Pacers secured a 116-107 Game 3 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, taking a 2-1 lead and shocking us all.

OKC has the opportunity to tie the series and will need guys to step up after its last performance.

With that in mind, I see three wagers that have value right now.

Let’s dive into it.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 assists

There’s a zigzag spot for the Thunder to have more assists in Game 4 after a poor performance sharing the ball in Game 3.

Oklahoma City scored 107 points on 37 made baskets. It had only 16 assists, which is unacceptable for an NBA Finals performance.

This isn’t new for the Thunder in this series, as they had only 13 team assists on 39 made shots in their Game 1 loss. There have been two nights when the Thunder did not share the ball and two losses to show for it.

However, in Game 2, when the Thunder won by 16, they had 25 assists on 40 made baskets. This is how they’d like to distribute the ball, and it’s been the method that’s worked in this series.

When the Thunder are looking to pass the ball more, it starts with SGA. He is the primary ball handler, and the Pacers are going to run two guys at him often. On pick-and-rolls, the Pacers try to close hard and force him to pass. SGA just needs his teammates to knock down some shots.

In Game 2, he had eight assists. In the four wins against the Wolves, SGA has at least eight assists. It seems obvious that the path for the Thunder to have success tonight is by having SGA pass the ball to his teammates, who can then finish for points.

PICK: SGA Over 6.5 assists

Pacers made a statement that they are better in fourth quarter — will OKC bounce back?

Myles Turner Over 13.5 points

This is an opportunity to wager on Turner to have a bounce-back game. Turner scored only nine points in Game 3, down from 15 and 16 in the first two games.

Turner has not scored in double-digits in other playoff games, such as when he scored five points against the Knicks in Game 6. Turner only took three shots in that game and made two of them.

What stood out to me about Turner’s nine points on Wednesday was his poor shooting performance. He only made 27% of his shots. Turner was 3-for-11, including 1-for-4 from 3. That’s the worst shooting percentage Turner has had in a playoff game since Game 3 against the Bucks, where he was 1-for-9 with only six points. In the next game, he was 9-for-13 with 23 points.

PICK: Myles Turner Over 13.5 points

Pascal Siakam Under 7.5 rebounds

This number is too high for the production of Siakam in the postseason. He’s had over seven rebounds just four times, including Game 1 against the Thunder. In that game, the Pacers outrebounded the Thunder by 16, which is abnormal for both teams. The Thunder have rebounded better, winning that battle in both Games 2 and 3.

With that, we’ve seen Siakam’s rebounding number come down. He had 10 in the first game, then seven in Game 2, followed by just six in Game 3. I think the trend continues tonight.

PICK: Pascal Siakam Under 7.5 rebounds

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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