In all but three of the past 22 seasons, a team has gone from last place in their division to first. Last year was one of those three where it didn’t happen. In fact, all but one of the division winners from 2023 remained the same — the Rams were the only deviation.
That many repeats is rare, so it stands to reason there will be a team that goes from worst to first this year. But who will it be?
Let’s go through each of the fourth-place finishers from 2024 and rank their chances of winning their respective divisions in 2025?
The Ravens are so firmly at the top of the AFC North that I just don’t think anyone is overtaking them, much less the Browns, whose quarterback situation is anything but settled. They do have a formidable pass rush behind the highest-paid edge rusher in the league in Myles Garrett, and they invested in some offensive pieces this offseason. But with the biggest question mark being who is lining up under center, I don’t see how they’re going to make noise in one of the tougher divisions in football.
It was a toss-up for last place between the Browns and the Giants, but I ultimately decided that I feel better about New York’s quarterback situation than Cleveland’s. The Giants also have an excellent defensive line and some fun offensive pieces that could help them win some games they’re not supposed to. That being said, they have the worst schedule in the league with having to play in the NFC East and against the NFC and AFC North. They’ll be lucky to win a game in their division, much less contend for the division title.
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Giants first-round rookie Jaxson Dart will compete with Russell Wilson for the starting quarterback job as head coach Brian Daboll enters a pivotal year in 2025. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)
The Saints’ problems were made worse with the surprise retirement of quarterback Derek Carr. They now place their offense in the hands of either Spencer Rattler or rookie Tyler Shough. Their best offensive weapon in Chris Olave has had trouble staying healthy. Their defense is old and they’re still barely scraping by with their finances.
The Carolina Panthers, who finished with the same record as New Orleans in 2024, should be better this year. So should the Atlanta Falcons if Michael Penix Jr. really is their quarterback of the future. With all that said, the Buccaneers are vying for their fifth-straight division title, and they look primed to get it.
The Chiefs lost only two games with their starters on the field during a season in which they had question marks and injuries throughout their offense. Question marks that they addressed this offseason, by the way. I’m not betting on the Chiefs being any worse, as a result. Therefore, the AFC West is nowhere near up for grabs. Add in that all three of the Raiders’ division opponents made the playoffs last year and the hill gets steeper in the desert.
For what it’s worth, Las Vegas has been playing Kansas City tough of late — the last three games have been decided by one score, and the Raiders even won one. They now also have a decorated head coach in Pete Carroll, while new general manager John Spytek has made some key additions this offseason. If the offensive line can hold up for Geno Smith, I think Las Vegas is going to outperform expectations.
Head coach Pete Carroll of the Raiders walks on a field during an OTA offseason workout at the team’s headquarters/Intermountain Healthcare Performance Center on May 21, 2025 in Henderson, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
The Bills aren’t going to relinquish their hold on the AFC East anytime soon, but I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that the Patriots finish second in the division. In fact, that might even be likely now that Mike Vrabel is putting his stamp on the team he once played for. Drake Maye is an incredibly talented young quarterback, and his offensive line has conceivably gotten better. It almost feels like New England is next in line to vie for the division title, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see that start this year.
The Bears have done everything right this offseason, which means they’re doing things they’ve never done. They shelled out a lot of cash for head coach Ben Johnson and his staff. They gave Johnson autonomy over a roster that needed an overhaul on the offensive line, and he addressed it before free agency even started. Now, it all depends on whether Caleb Williams makes a leap and Johnson shortens the learning curve in his first head coaching stint. If those things manifest, the Bears could be right in the playoff mix.
The Lions don’t feel like the immovable object that the Bills or Chiefs are, especially with the news that center Frank Ragnow is retiring. If the Bears can split the series with each NFC North rival, their fourth-place schedule provides a pathway to earning a decent record. That’s still much easier said than done, though. This is a division that produced three playoff teams in 2024.
Head coach Ben Johnson of the Bears looks on during rookie minicamp at Halas Hall on May 09, 2025 in Lake Forest, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
The AFC South looks completely up for grabs, and with the addition of Cam Ward at quarterback, the Titans could be the surprise team of the league. They’ve collected quite the starting five in front of the No. 1 overall pick and added four receivers, including underrated veteran Tyler Lockett. Tennessee’s defense also looked like it was ascending last season. I’m not saying it’s definitely going to happen, but if we see a major shakeup in any division, it’s likely going to be the AFC South.
This was a decently easy call when it comes down to likelihood, though I do think the Rams are going to be a hard team to overcome for the top spot in the NFC West. That being said, last year was an uncharacteristically bad year for the Niners and I don’t expect that to continue. They still have one of the better rosters in the division, and they just paid quarterback Brock Purdy.
If San Francisco gets running back Christian McCaffrey back and healthy, all bets are off as to who wins this division. That is an “if,” though. The Niners snagged a couple of defensive linemen with their first two picks in the draft to make up for their losses there, too.
Carmen Vitali is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.
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