One of the things I’ve learned covering sports betting over the last decade is it’s not the best idea to bet the Heisman Trophy preseason favorite.
Not a single “summer favorite” has won since 2015, and we’ve seen doozies like Sam Darnold, Leonard Fournette, Spencer Rattler and DJ Uiagalelei sit atop the betting boards as the calendar flipped to August.
Conversely, we’ve seen players like Travis Hunter (50/1), Lamar Jackson (100/1) and Joe Burrow (200/1) defy betting odds to hoist the Heisman, while DeVonta Smith wasn’t even listed before the 2020 campaign.
Enter Arch Manning.
The Texas quarterback with the million-dollar name is this year’s favorite with a consensus price of around +600 in the market. Manning possesses insane upside on a team co-favored to win the national championship. That said, he threw for 939 yards last season with 13 total touchdowns.
If Arch’s last name was “Martin,” the price might be double.
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Arch Manning’s 2025 Heisman odds
+500 Caesars ($10 wins $50)
+500 Circa ($10 wins $50)
+500 Westgate ($10 wins $50)
+600 BetMGM ($10 wins $60)
+700 DraftKings ($10 wins $70)
+750 FanDuel ($10 wins $75)
“I would throw anybody out at 5 or 6/1,” Heisman voter and Pick Six Previews pundit Brett Ciancia told FOX Sports. “I wouldn’t touch anything like that. It’s such a crap shoot in August every year.
“That’s the beauty of college football. It’s such a mystery how these Heisman races and All-American candidates will play out. Remember, Carson Beck was the favorite last year to win the Heisman and he ended up nowhere close.
“I wouldn’t touch any Heisman favorite.”
Ciancia’s early darling is Clemson QB Cade Klubnik.
“Even that’s a little bit chalky at 9/1,” he admitted. “He’s a pretty safe bet coming in as a playoff contender. [Clemson] is going to be in the playoff mix, given how weak the ACC is. A very veteran roster around him, and they’re building off a conference championship. That’s my chalk pick.
“If you want a lottery bet, I would go with Oklahoma’s John Mateer at 30/1. It’s going to be a high-powered, new-look offense there. He tore it up at Washington State with this same coordinator. I don’t know if it’s just the towel or the headband, but he looks like Baker Mayfield out there.
“Similar playing style, he’s going to get a ton of stats and if the Sooners make a run in the SEC, he’ll be looked at as a Heisman candidate.”
I’ve buttered my bread with the aforementioned Beck, who transferred from Georgia to Miami to replace Heisman finalist and No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward. There’s something to be said about a quarterback changing scenery to play in a system that’s more conducive to putting up big numbers.
FanDuel was dealing Beck at 37-1 a couple of weeks ago and yes, I would still bet him at 25-1 or higher if you’re a little late to the party.
Please don’t bet FanDuel’s current price at 18-1.
Truth be told, Manning has the ability, name and surrounding talent to take this Heisman race and run with it. And I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about him throwing three touchdowns against Ohio State in Columbus on Aug. 30 and never looking back.
As we’ve learned, though, it’s usually not that simple.
Just ask Uncle Eli or Uncle Peyton.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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