There’s nothing more American than betting on the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest every Fourth of July at Coney Island.
Last year’s winner, Patrick Bertoletti, crushed 58 hot dogs and buns to win his first career mustard belt in a wide-open field without Joey Chestnut.
The first hot dog “total” posted on Bertoletti for this year’s event was O/U 49.5, an offshore number that felt way too low. DraftKings opened his number at 50.5 last week and their number is up to 53.5 one day out.
Circa Sports is currently the highest on Bertoletti at 55.5.
“He was the toughest eater to price,” Circa risk manager Dylan Sullivan told me late Wednesday night. “He’s been pretty inconsistent over the years, but I saw the direction his market was being bet and wanted to be high. I would rather build a cushion near the ceiling than get run over with Over bets.”
Patrick Bertoletti +17.5 hot dogs vs. Chestnut
Truth be told, my “Bet Sweats” co-host Joe Ostrowski and I loved Bertoletti’s prop at Over 49.5, but we won’t have a single cent Over 55.5.
Chestnut is back at the event this year after being banned last July for a sponsorship issue with Impossible Foods. The 16-time Nathan’s champion is the unquestioned favorite, and he’s as high as -2500 to win.
That means you’ve got to lay $2500 to win a Benjamin.
No thanks.
Chestnut’s total is very polarizing at O/U 71.5 because we’ve seen him eat as many as 76 dogs and buns in 2021, but only 63 and 62 in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
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“You would think he would be motivated to destroy the competition,” one bettor told me. “But weather is the most important factor. If it’s too hot, the pace slows down and if it’s on the cooler side, the food gets cold.”
“Let’s be real, you’re gambling on a bet at [O/U] 71.5.”
Chestnut was on Barstool Sports’ “Pardon My Take” podcast this week and said “it’ll take perfect conditions” to beat his world record of 76.
Temperatures are expected to be in the high 60s, so I have little interest in betting on him to eat 77 or more at a price of +300.
As for the women’s event, Miki Sudo is the clear favorite, and it’s such a forgone conclusion that she’ll win her 11th title that most sportsbooks aren’t even booking a women’s future pool. That’s how dominant she is.
Sudo’s total is in the 45.5 to 46.5 range.
I did eye Sudo (+115) against Nick Wehry in a head-to-head matchup at DraftKings. Sudo ate a women’s record 51 dogs and buns last year, and I would much rather bet the best woman to beat the fourth-best man heads up.
At the end of the day, I can’t ignore this betting blitz on Bertoletti. The hot dog sharps have already spoken, gobbling up the Overs from 49.5 to 53.5, and I’m not as confident as the market is that Chestnut will reach 70.
Let’s see what happens.
PICK: Patrick Bertoletti (-130) +17.5 dogs vs. Chestnut
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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