The Offensive Player of the Year award in the NFL has fallen into two buckets over the last generation of football.
The first bucket is this: It has been a running back or a receiver, having an outstanding season — often on a winning team — like we saw with Saquon Barkley last season or Christian McCaffrey in 2023, or going further back to Cooper Kupp in 2021 or Todd Gurley in 2017.
There has not been a repeat winner or back-to-back Offensive Player of the Year at these two positions since Marshall Faulk won the award three times in a row from 1999 to 2001.
The second bucket has been quarterbacks who either also won the MVP, like Patrick Mahomes in 2018 or Cam Newton in 2015, or Drew Brees in 2011, who was fantastic but a runner-up to Aaron Rodgers in the MVP vote.
Over the last six seasons, it appears the voters have tended to favor the receiver-running back option.
With these parameters, I like three options for Offensive Player of the Year.
Henry last won this award in 2020, so there’s been enough time for voters to feel like he hasn’t won it too recently. Henry was incredible last season, and if not for Barkley, we’d be talking about his 325 carries and 1,921 yards more often.
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Henry also added 16 touchdowns.
The reason more running backs haven’t won this award in back-to-back seasons, or even won a second time, is durability. That has not been an issue for Henry, who’s built like a superhuman. He’s played in every available game for the last three seasons with nearly 1,000 carries. I do not see his production dropping off this season in Baltimore.
The only concern with wagering on Henry is his quarterback, Lamar Jackson, taking away votes because of his individual success.
PICK: Derrick Henry (+1600) to win OPOY
NFL executives rank Joe Burrow above Lamar Jackson — do you agree?
I have to play this number for a quarterback who was arguably the best in the NFL last season. He played on a Bengals team that didn’t make the postseason because the defense was awful. Burrow completed 70% of his 652 pass attempts for a league-leading 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns.
I don’t expect the Bengals offense to slow down this season because their defense is still suspect.
Burrow has elite weapons around him, and I could see voters giving him this award if he’s near 5,000 passing yards again. His Bengals team won’t be good enough for Burrow to win MVP, so the reward of giving him this honor would be something voters would dig. This number is worse than Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
If Burrow starts fast, this number is going to drop quickly.
PICK: Joe Burrow (+5000) to win OPOY
Patrick Mahomes ranked second-best QB behind Josh Allen — is he losing his grip?
Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes has an upgraded offensive line, a healthy receiving group (with a looming Rashee Rice suspension), Travis Kelce back and lots of pundits saying the Chiefs‘ run is over — so sign me up for an angry Mahomes this season trying to prove the Chiefs offense still has it.
Kansas City’s offense was dead last in explosive play rate but fifth in success rate. That was due to the offense not having healthy receivers for most of the season. That is fixed with Rice and Brown healthy, plus the addition of Jalen Royals in the draft and Xavier Worthy in Year 2.
Mahomes is only two years removed from a 5,000-yard season. I think he will have a monster season, and if he does but doesn’t win the MVP, this is an award he can claim. This number is too large to pass up.
PICK: Patrick Mahomes (+10000) to win OPOY
A few guys I did not wager on but are worth a mention: Ja’Marr Chase could take votes away from Burrow, and it might be worth splitting that wager on Burrow to add some to Chase. However, I’m leaning into Burrow here as the better story. Justin Jefferson caught my eye, but I’m not sure what his numbers will be with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback. I also looked at McCaffrey, but I worry about the Niners offensive line and his health.
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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