Are the Blue Jays the Real Deal? Looking At the Reasons Behind Toronto’s Surge

Deesha Thosar

MLB Writer

When Joey Loperfido connected on a 93-mph fastball in the fifth inning on Monday, there was a feeling of inevitability behind it. It didn’t matter this was just his second game of the season, after being called up on Sunday to help the major-league roster.

The way that things have been going for the Blue Jays, anyone who puts on a royal blue uniform right now will reap the benefits of their winning formula.

(Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images)

Loperfido’s soaring fly ball to right field was his first home run of the year, breaking a tie with the White Sox and setting in motion a barrage of runs from Toronto’s blistering-hot lineup. The Jays scored six more times against Chicago, which was more than enough run support for right-hander Jose Berrios, who recorded his 12th quality start of the season.

And so it went for the Blue Jays as they stuck to their fruitful approach: overwhelm the opponent, cash in when there are runners on base, then let the pitching staff do its thing. Their offensive philosophy — driven by new hitting coach David Popkins — might sound simple, but it flourishes when hitters are comfortable being themselves. The coaching staff is maximizing the offense’s potential by being up front with players about their roles in the lineup. The No. 9 hitter is just as important as the leadoff man, and the hitters in the middle of the pack have to keep the line moving.

Trusting the approach has led to a brand of Blue Jays baseball that we haven’t seen since 2015.

The Blue Jays’ 8-4 victory over the White Sox on Monday marked their ninth consecutive win, their longest streak in 10 years before they extended to 10 on Tuesday. They are the only Major League Baseball team with seven or more wins and fewer than two losses in that span, scoring eight or more runs four times during their 10-game win streak. They’re averaging 6.67 runs per game and have crushed 17 home runs, both of which are the second-most in the major leagues since June 29. Throughout their winning streak, the lineup’s .372 batting average with runners in scoring position is the second-best in baseball.

They’re capitalizing on their opportunities and hammering the starting pitcher — especially his second and third time through the order, if he even gets there. After the first time through the lineup, the Jays have scored 26 runs (tied for first), have 46 hits (most) and 18 extra base hits (tied for first) throughout their win streak. There is carefully-constructed depth throughout the lineup that makes navigating it exhausting for opposing pitching staffs, and as everyone else considers whether their formula is sustainable, the club’s confidence is only climbing to new levels.

All they have to do to remind themselves that their hard work is paying off is peek at the standings. They captured first place after a four-game sweep of the New York Yankees to begin the month, and as much as their AL East rivals want to believe that dominance won’t last, the Blue Jays have only persisted. Toronto has stretched that lead to 3.5 games entering Wednesday, suggesting it won’t be as easy as New York expects to reclaim the division lead.

The first-place Blue Jays are the hottest team in baseball, but they weren’t expected to be this good.

There was a mix of optimism and caution as Blue Jays players packed their bags for spring training back in February. The front office gave the fan base a modicum of hope this winter, acquiring power hitter Anthony Santander and future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. They added much-needed bullpen depth, which was a weakness last season. But could the Jays be depended upon to turn it around? Sure, they have a strong core that features Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and George Springer, but we had seen that offense underproduce and struggle with consistency too many times to really count on a big year from them. Coming off a 74-win season and a last-place finish, FanGraphs gave the Blue Jays a 43% chance of making the playoffs before the season began.

Now? The Jays have an 91.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 48.4% percent chance of winning the division, per FanGraphs. While household names like Guerrero and Springer have been key, it’s their secondary offense that deserves credit for bewildering opposing pitchers and forcing them to exit their outings earlier than they’d anticipated.

Third baseman and right fielder Addison Barger is one of seven major-league players to have hit four or more home runs since June 29. And in that span, he’s just one of two players to have hit four homers and collect at least one steal, joining Springer. Barger’s 70.8% hard-hit rate is tied for third-best in the majors during the team’s win streak. But his success at the plate goes back even farther than Toronto’s nine most recent wins. It took about a month for the 25-year-old to find his rhythm, but Barger has been a top 10 WAR leader in MLB since May 8. Known as Bam-Bam around the Rogers Centre, Barger is quickly becoming a fan favorite following his 2024 major-league debut.

Addison Barger celebrates with Bo Bichette during a game against the Chicago White Sox. (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Beyond his dramatic turnaround, the Blue Jays offense is getting help from guys like catcher Alejandro Kirk and infielder Ernie Clement. Kirk, who signed a $58-million, five-year contract extension during the spring, is returning to the All-Star Game for the second time in his career. He was an obvious pick for rebounding at the plate after two consecutive down years. Through 76 games, Kirk is slashing .300/.358/.410 with 41 RBIs and a career-best 9.9% strikeout rate. The 26-year-old, who has talked about finally knowing who he is as a hitter this season, seems to be one of the best recipients of Popkins’ offensive philosophy. Clement, too, is enjoying a career year — and not just at the plate.

The Blue Jays represent the best defensive team in baseball, and it’s not particularly close. Toronto has amassed 32.9 defensive WAR, with the Milwaukee Brewers in second with 20.8 dWAR. Much of their improved defense is due to Kirk, who is renowned for his exceptional framing behind the plate. But guys like Clement, Andres Gimenez, Miles Straw, Alan Roden, and Daulton Varsho (before he got injured) are major contributors with their sharp gloves, helping to limit damage behind their pitchers. Flashing the leather is nothing new for the Jays — they finished the 2024 season with the best defense in MLB, too — but when that type of attention to detail is combined with consistency in the lineup and solid pitching performances, the roster from top to bottom is dangerous.

The Blue Jays are a living, breathing example of how to reject early-season expectations and harness an organizational strategy that plays to every individual’s strength. Even when Guerrero takes a seven-day break from being exceptional at the plate, and given that Santander and Varsho have been injured since the end of May, and right-hander Alek Manoah has yet to throw a pitch this season, the Jays are calling the next man up and thriving all the same.

If they’re this good now, how much better will they be at full strength? How much more improved will they be after the trade deadline? Those are some seriously scary thoughts for opposing teams, who have officially been put on notice. The Blue Jays aren’t messing around this time. If they can stave off the Yankees and hold onto the division lead, they’re knocking on the door of their first playoff appearance past the wild-card round since 2016.

That special, giddy feeling is back, so go ahead and believe in them. It’s a wonderful and exciting time to be a Jays fan.

Deesha Thosar covers Major League Baseball as a reporter and columnist for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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