Dublin will get its fair share of Cyclones and Wildcats this weekend.
The first college football game of the season pits the No. 22 Iowa State Cyclones against the No. 17 Kansas State Wildcats in Ireland.
Can you feel the excitement?
With that, here are two bets I like from that game, as well as one more wager from a West Coast Week 0 showdown.
Avery Johnson Over/Under 54.5 rushing yards
Game 1 with importance equals plenty of opportunity for a rushing quarterback to take advantage. Iowa State has spent months preparing to stop quarterback rushes, but will not have seen a QB like Avery Johnson, and Iowa State is also replacing much of its defensive line.
The Kansas State offensive line could be worse this season, which would force Johnson to bail on pass plays for long rushes. It could also hurt me if he gets sacked, which gets added to the quarterback’s rushing stats.
Johnson had some of his biggest rushing outputs against top-ranked teams last season, including 64 yards against Iowa State, 60 yards against a ranked Oklahoma State and 110 yards against Arizona. Higher rushing outputs against better teams and/or in bigger games makes sense. In those games, the quarterback tends to use his legs because there’s more pressure to make plays and more urgency to win.
And once again, a quarterback being able to use their legs is a huge advantage.
PICK: Avery Johnson Over 54.5 rushing yards
Rocco Becht Over/Under 230.5 passing yards
This is a wager on the Iowa State passing offense starting the season slow with new receivers.
Iowa State saw its pair of 1,000-yard receivers depart and will rely on transfer portal players for production at the receiver position. The Cyclones are also fighting to find a third receiving option in training camp.
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ISU does have reliable tight ends, but its offensive line is questionable when it comes to pass protection. I don’t like the matchup against the Kansas State pass rush and that could lead to hits, pressures and sacks on their QB, Rocco Becht.
I see Iowa State trying to win this game on the ground like it has done in years past.
PICK: Rocco Becht Under 230.5 passing yards
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Stanford @ Hawaii Over/Under 50.5 points scored
Both these defenses are likely to stink, but their offenses are such unknowns that I doubt we see much scoring in this game.
Stanford turns to Oregon State transfer Ben Gulbranson to run its offense under interim head coach Frank Reich. Gulbranson played in a super-quarterback-friendly offense with Jonathan Smith at Oregon State in 2022, and then again last season — but he barely completed 60% of passes.
The Stanford offensive line was poor last season and I don’t see much difference this season. The Cardinal don’t have reliable receiving options either.
Hawaii’s offense was poor last season, and it turns things over to Micah Alejado, who played in Hawaii’s final two games last season. He played well, which is a positive, but it’s hard to forecast for this season, with portal receivers and a poorly-functioning offensive line that couldn’t run-block all that well.
There’s just so much we don’t know about these offenses, while Hawaii’s defense returns some playmakers. I think this will be a sloppy game.
PICK: Under 50.5 total points scored
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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