Before you ask, yes — I have the team that selected first in the 2025 NFL Draft winning its division and going to the playoffs.
As the NFL preseason winds down and the regular season is just weeks away, let’s continue our division breakdowns with a look at the AFC South, from a betting perspective.
The last time an AFC South squad appeared in the Super Bowl was 2009, with 2007 marking the last time the South won a Super Bowl (both by the Indianapolis Colts).
Will either streak be broken this year?
Let’s dive in and find the best bet for this division.
Let’s start at the top with the Texans, who aim to win their third straight division title. Their Over/Under for projected wins is 9.5, as they are even money (a $10 bet returns $10) to win the AFC South, and have 35-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Two years ago, the Texans were the feel-good story of the 2023 season. They surprisingly went 10-7 and won a playoff game before losing in the divisional round. In 2024, the Texans felt like a disappointment, despite following the same path as the previous year, losing in the divisional round after a 10-7 season, which included a playoff victory.
However, that feeling of disappointment regarding last year’s Texans felt justified, given shaky offensive-line play and regression from quarterback C.J. Stroud, which left them as a team that scored exactly as many points as they allowed (372).
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With games against the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs, and a perhaps tougher out-of-division schedule, the Texans still have to show that they’ve improved an offensive line that allowed 54 sacks last year (fourth most in the NFL). They are the rightful favorite, but not necessarily a team that warrants a bet at their short odds.
The Jaguars have a projected win total of 7.5, with odds of +300 to win the division and +8000 to win their first-ever Super Bowl. The Jaguars are coming off a dismal four-win season in 2024, as new head coach Liam Coen comes over from Tampa Bay, where he was the offensive coordinator.
Coen is highly regarded for his time with the Bucs, and will have two-way star rookie Travis Hunter to deploy, both of which are reasons for optimism. Perhaps Trevor Lawrence will show flashes of his 2022 season, where he threw for over 4,000 yards and had a 25-8 touchdown-interception ratio while leading the team to the only postseason appearance since being drafted in 2021.
But at +300, there’s not enough value and too many question marks.
The Colts have expectations similar to the Jaguars mentioned above. The Colts have a projected win total of 7.5, are +370 to win the division, and are 120-1 long shots to win the Super Bowl in February. Daniel Jones will be the 11th different starting quarterback for the Colts since Andrew Luck unexpectedly retired weeks before the start of the 2019 season. Anthony Richardson, the fourth overall pick in 2022, will serve as the backup.
Despite the uncertainty at quarterback, the Colts have some talent on the roster, but do they have enough to win a division title? Likely not.
Albert Breer on Shedeur Sanders’ injury, Texans’ odds of winning AFC South, Caleb Williams
Now that that’s all out of the way, let’s get to the team that I believe is the sleeper in this division, the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans were bad last year, bad enough to pick first overall in April’s NFL Draft. They have a projected win total of 5.5, are +650 to win the division, and 200-1 to become a true “worst to first” and win the Super Bowl.
Make no mistake, it was ugly last year for the Titans. Not only did they win just three games, but they were also an unfathomable 2-15 against the spread. However, if you’re looking for positive signs, look no further than their Week 1 loss last year to the Bears. The Titans led that game 17-0, held the Bears to 148 yards of offense and just 11 first downs, yet lost 24-17.
How? Special teams ineptitude and turnovers, primarily from quarterback Will Levis, who will no longer be the starter and is out for the season due to injury. The Bears rallied that day by forcing three turnovers, including one for a touchdown, and blocking a punt for another touchdown — a fitting microcosm for a season that saw the Titans commit a league-leading 34 turnovers.
With just average quarterback play from rookie Cam Ward, this team can make a giant leap, similar to the one made by the Texans in 2023 in CJ Stroud’s rookie year. The Titans gained five yards per play last year, while allowing 5.2 yards per play. They weren’t by any measure a quality team, but many statistics suggest they should have been much closer to mediocre.
The Texans deserve to be favored here, but this is not a division with a powerhouse like the Chiefs, Eagles, Ravens or Bills. Better quarterback play for the Titans is almost a given, considering how bad Levis was last year.
With a little luck and some better special teams play, the Titans can go from worst to first and claim a very winnable and wide-open AFC South.
PICK: Tennessee Titans (+650) to Win the AFC South
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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