As we take a look at the AFC West, it’s easy to see why many will make a case that this is the best and deepest division in the NFL.
Last year, this division produced three playoff teams that all won double-digit games. This includes the 15-win Chiefs, who made the Super Bowl (again).
While the Chiefs were the only team in the division that won a playoff game once it got there, the 36 combined wins last season between the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos should not be overlooked.
In 2015, Peyton Manning (and Brock Osweiler) led the Broncos to an AFC West crown, eventually defeating the Carolina Panthers in the Super Bowl. I mention this because it’s the last time a team other than the Chiefs won this division.
While it’s hard to believe a team can rattle off nine straight division titles, it’s also hard to fathom that the 2015 Broncos run is already a decade ago.
The Chiefs’ 2025 schedule, though, will make winning a 10th straight AFC West a tall task.
Kansas City has an Over/Under win total of 11.5 and +850 odds to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings Sportsbook. The popularity of the Chiefs works against them when it comes to the schedule, as they are slated to play in at least eight prime-time games, including on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys and on Christmas against the Broncos.
They have a Super Bowl rematch in September against the Eagles, as well as games later on in the season against the Ravens, Lions, Bills, Commanders and Texans, in addition to their six tough division games. That’s a brutal schedule, especially considering all the short weeks they have because of their prime-time night games.
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This puts Kansas City at a disadvantage in terms of prep and rest time.
All that being said, there are better ways to make money than betting against a Hall of Fame coach and quarterback in Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
More on this later when I talk about my best bet.
As we look at the rest of the division, the Broncos’ outlook is much brighter than it was this time last year, when they were viewed as a five- or six-win team by the market.
They soared past those expectations and won 10 games, despite an 0-2 start. Now, they look to be a solid playoff contender once again. Their O/U for wins is 9.5, and they are +2800 to win it all. I expect them to duplicate last year’s success and return to the playoffs behind what may very well be the league’s best defense.
The Chargers also come into the year off of a double-digit win season and a playoff appearance, and are viewed on the same level as the Broncos.
After finishing 11-6, their O/U for wins is also 9.5, with +2800 odds to win their first ever Super Bowl.
Can head coach Jim Harbaugh lead his Chargers on a deep playoff run?
While I try to avoid betting against Chargers’ coach Jim Harbaugh, who seems to win big everywhere he goes, the Chargers were only 2-6 last year in games against teams that made the postseason — including a blowout playoff loss to the Texans.
The Bolts thrived last year on creating turnovers, while they feasted on a very favorable schedule. The schedule is tougher this year, and they now have the season-ending injury to star offensive lineman Rashawn Slater to deal with. This will make things even more challenging in 2025.
However, I never underestimate Harbaugh, but there are some signs they might take a step back.
One team that almost certainly will not take a step back is the Las Vegas Raiders, who won four games in 2024. They added a steady starting quarterback with the surprising trade for Geno Smith and used the sixth pick in the draft on standout Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty.
Head coach Pete Carroll takes over a team with an O/U of 6.5 and 120-1 odds to win the Super Bowl.
While the division is challenging, adding Smith and Jeanty to star tight end Brock Bowers is going to be fun to watch, and I would only look at Over 6.5 wins for a Raiders team that can flirt with the playoffs. That’s if everything breaks right for them.
All of this brings me to my best bet — Chiefs-Broncos (+340) Exact Division Finish 1-2.
This is a fun market offered at Draftkings and one that I think offers great value. While the Chiefs have a challenging schedule, until Mahomes and Reid don’t win the division, I’m picking them to do so. While I think the Chiefs will win it again, the Slater injury for the Chargers is enough for me to opt for the Broncos as runner-up. Denver has notable talent on both sides of the ball.
This is a fun division. Every head coach in it currently may very well be in the Hall of Fame one day. But look for it to ultimately be Chiefs-Broncos in the Nos. 1 and 2 spots, respectively.
PICK: Chiefs-Broncos (+340) exact division finish 1-2
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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