Ohio State vs Texas Predictions, Odds, Expert Picks

Chris Fallica and 3 more

On Saturday, the defending national champions will take on the No. 1-ranked team in the AP Poll for the first time since 1988, and for just the fourth time ever.

Top-ranked Texas travels to Columbus to take on No. 3 Ohio State at noon ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app.

Our FOX Sports wagering experts each dove into the game, breaking down the matchup and choosing a winner. Let’s get into it:

Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica:

I’d love to sit here and tell you who’s going to win the 1 vs 3 showdown in Columbus, but I have no idea. I have thoughts, but play the game 50 times and each win 25. There’s a reason the game is about a pick ‘em on the odds boards. That being said, if you handed me $100 and told me you had to bet the game, I’d bet Ohio State. However, it’s not an official pick for the Bear Bets column and ledger though. Yes, the Buckeyes have two new coordinators, a new QB, new RB and a bunch of new starters on defense. They also have arguably the two best players in the sport in Caleb Downs and Jeremiah Smith, and have recruited as well as anyone in the country.

I wonder if the fact that Ohio State has so many new components to it, that it might be an advantage—a sort of element of surprise. How does Texas prepare for that? I’m sure Steve Sarkisian won’t ask Arch Manning to win this game on his own, he’s got a bunch of good backs to help carry the load. If the Ohio State offensive line can give Julian Sayin some time to get the ball to those great wideouts, the Buckeyes should get a hard-fought home win in what could be the first of two meetings between these two very good teams.

Prediction: Ohio State 24, Texas 21

Sammy P:

“They’re gonna be jamming Texas like no other,” Wynn Resorts trading manager Motoi Pearson told me earlier this week.

I won’t have a single dollar on the side, but lean to what the house needs. There’s been a hellacious appetite to bet Arch Manning and the No. 1 Longhorns— especially this week—and the betting line has moved accordingly, from Ohio State -3 to Ohio State -1.5 at most shops.

That’s such a cheap price on a top 3 team playing at home. Buckeye receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are matchup nightmares for any defense.

Prediction: Ohio State 27, Texas 24

Will Hill:

There has been sentiment in the betting market for Texas, as they have now flipped to 1.5-point favorites. I understand the enthusiasm for Texas, and backing the No. 1 team in the country to win the game certainly makes some sense considering everything Ohio State lost since last year. Fourteen Buckeye players departed in the NFL Draft, including four first rounders, in addition to losing both coordinators.

But ultimately, Texas starting quarterback Arch Manning has never attempted a pass on the road, and his limited action has all been against lesser competition. I’ll take the home team here, as Ohio State still has one of the most dominant players in the country on each side of the ball with wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, and safety Caleb Downs, as well as a raucous crowd that could be the difference in such a close game.

Prediction: Ohio State 24, Texas 21

Geoff Schwartz:

Manning has all the talent but is still unproven. He’s got mobility, and I’d imagine there will be creative ways for Texas to run him. He has a skill position group that’s one of the best in the country — Texas recruits with the best of ’em — but will be behind an offensive line with four new faces.

Manning also faces an Ohio State defense with a new coordinator and over half of the defense from last season has moved on to the NFL. That defense has Downs and linebacker Sonny Styles — both will be high draft picks next summer — but it’s also full of unknown talent.

Sayin is making his first start after seeing the field briefly in backup duty in 2024. He’s facing a Texas defense guided by coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski, who turned his squad into one of the best defenses in the country last season. Texas sent five starters to the NFL but does return dudes at every single position on the field.

That defense will be outstanding again this season.

If I asked you to blindly predict the results of a Week 1 game for a team with a redshirt freshman quarterback making his first start, alongside a first-time offensive coordinator calling plays (I assume Ryan Day will help), alongside a new offensive line and an entirely new set of running backs, paired with a defense that has a new coordinator calling his first college game with a unit full of new starters, all while hosting the No. 1 team in the nation, you’d say, “That team is in trouble.”

Ohio State is a gifted squad — but it is unproven all over the field and in the coaches’ box, too. I trust Texas, which is returning with more experience and with the same coaches.

Prediction: Texas 28, Ohio State 23

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