NFL Week 4 odds saw the public betting masses have a great time in Sunday’s early window of games.
But the marquee matchup in the late window generally fell in favor of the bookmakers, who were in the rare position of needing the Chiefs at home against the Ravens.
“Surprisingly, the Chiefs were not a great result for bettors, as the Ravens were all the rage,” Caesars head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
More on the weekend that was, as oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap NFL and college football betting.
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Hail To The Chiefs
In the Patrick Mahomes era, Kansas City is rarely an underdog, certainly not at home. Yet the Chiefs were 2.5-point home ‘dogs Sunday against Baltimore.
Prior to kickoff, BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said he thought Ravens-Chiefs would draw 50/50 betting. Instead, 80% of point-spread money landed on Baltimore.
When contacted again with the Chiefs up 30-13 late in the third quarter, Cipollini was in good spirits.
“It’ll be a good day if this Chiefs score holds,” he said.
It did, with K.C. rolling to a 37-20 victory.
As noted above, that outcome worked well for Caesars Sports, too. At DraftKings Sportsbook, bettors were also solidly on Baltimore on the spread and the moneyline.
But there’s always an outlier or two. While the bigger national sportsbooks needed the Chiefs, The SuperBook and South Point in Las Vegas were Ravens fans Sunday.
“We were just rooting for Baltimore to win and cover,” SuperBook vice president John Murray said.
Public Payout
Seated behind his desk in the South Point risk room late Saturday afternoon, sportsbook director Chris Andrews pored over the day’s results to that point. And they weren’t pretty.
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“We had nine decisions. We won two of them,” Andrews said, while pointing mostly to the early window of games. “They all bet New Orleans, they bet Atlanta, Detroit, Houston.”
The Saints were 14.5-point underdogs at Buffalo but were within 21-19 with 8:53 remaining. New Orleans ultimately lost 31-19 but covered the big number.
The Falcons, 2.5-point home favorites, beat Washington 34-27, with the Commanders minus Jayden Daniels due to a knee injury. The Lions were 10-point home favorites vs. Cleveland and rolled 35-10, while the Texans shut out Tennessee 26-0, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites.
And the late window of games wasn’t much better.
“We needed the 49ers and needed the Ravens. The public did great here today,” Andrews said.
San Francisco was a 3.5-point home favorite and lost to Jacksonville 26-21.
Caesars Sports joined South Point in lamenting the early slate of games.
“The early games were [good] for the customers, with all but one result going in their favor. The Giants‘ upset was the only poor result for the bettors,” Feazel said.
New York was a 6-point home underdog to the Los Angeles Chargers. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart made his first NFL start and helped the Giants notch a 21-18 victory.
Sunday Night Swing
One universal need among sportsbooks in NFL Week 4 Odds: the Dallas Cowboys.
BetMGM, Caesars, SuperBook, South Point and surely others needed Dallas against Green Bay.
Said Feazel prior to the Sunday night game:
“A Packers cover [of] 6.5 and Over 46.5 will swing the day firmly in the customers’ favor.”
Those customers got Over 46.5 no problem. Packers -6.5? Problem.
Green Bay needed a final-second field goal to tie it at 37 and force overtime. Then Dallas got a field goal on the first possession of OT, taking up almost half of the 10-minute period.
The Packers then used the rest of OT to get their own field goal — but barely — as the game ended in a 40-40 tie. So Green Bay didn’t cover the spread, giving bookmakers a key win to end the day.
On Campus
Saturday had arguably the best batch of matchups we’ll see all regular season. Oregon vs. Penn State and Alabama vs. Georgia certainly lived up to the billing, going head-to-head in prime time.
The Ducks and Nittany Lions went to overtime tied at 17, and Oregon ultimately won 30-24 in double overtime. So Oregon not only won outright as a 4-point road underdog — and a trendy public underdog, at that — but the Over hit by a mere half-point on the total of 53.5.
The game was a lead-pipe-cinch Under the whole night. Until it wasn’t, with 20 points scored in OT.
Alabama matched Oregon, going on the road as a 2.5-point underdog and beating Georgia 24-21. Both results were much to the chagrin of BetMGM.
“The night slate wasn’t good for the book. But the afternoon was enough to make up for it. It still ended up being a good Saturday for the book,” Cipollini said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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