On Monday night, the Ravens lost at home to the Lions 38-30. Next up is a Sunday road trip to face the three-time defending AFC champion Chiefs.
So you might think the Ravens’ loss would be reflected in NFL Week 4 odds, with the number moving toward K.C. — but you’d be wrong.
Baltimore opened as a 2.5-point favorite and is still -2.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
“What’s coming through is the bettors believe the Ravens are the better team,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said, while noting another interesting component to this game. “It’s gonna be wild that one of these teams could be 1-3 going into Week 5.”
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on that marquee matchup and other intriguing games, as we dive into NFL Week 4 betting nuggets.
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Raven-ous Appetite
Caesars first posted the Ravens-Chiefs line on Sunday night, opening Baltimore at -2.5 (-115). For those unfamiliar, that -115 signifies that if you bet on the Ravens -2.5, it takes a $115 wager to profit $100.
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The only change after the Ravens’ loss to Detroit: Going from -2.5 (-115) to the standard -2.5 (-110). And on Tuesday morning, Baltimore actually got to -3 for a few minutes, then returned to -2.5.
“This is a team that’s highly respected on both sides of the ball, even though the defense doesn’t always show well. It’s significant to see how this team is treated by bettors,” Feazel said.
Indeed, even though Baltimore is 1-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) — as is Kansas City — and is heading into a tough road environment, bettors remain believers.
“There’s a lot of action coming in on the Ravens, and I don’t expect that to stop,” Feazel said. “There aren’t a lot of people who have been excited about betting on the Chiefs.”
NFL Rocks On FOX
As FOX Sports noted in the preseason, the Eagles have the fourth-toughest strength of schedule in the NFL this year.
Week 4 marks the third consecutive game in which Philly meets a playoff team from last season. Jalen Hurts & Co. visit the Buccaneers on Sunday. And guess what? Week 5 will make it four straight weeks, when the Eagles host the Broncos.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
Philadelphia and Tampa are both 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS. Both had to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in Week 3. The Eagles were 3.5-point home favorites vs. the Rams and posted a wild 33-26 win, while the Bucs were 6.5-point home favorites vs. the Jets and squeaked out a 29-27 victory.
Caesars opened Eagles-Bucs at Philadelphia -3 and is up to -3.5.
Barring an overtime tie in this 1 p.m. ET clash on FOX, only one of these two teams will remain undefeated. And early bettors think that team will be the defending Super Bowl champion.
“The Eagles got a very exciting win last Sunday,” Feazel said. “So far this week, we’re seeing some Eagles action come in. Last week, customers were hesitant, betting on the Rams, both sharp and public.
“This week, public bettors are back on the Eagles, laying the 3.5.”
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is on a battle of winless teams this week: the Jets vs. the Dolphins. McKay took Dolphins -2.5 (-120) and said he’d still recommend Miami at -3 (even).
“This could be coach Mike McDaniel’s last stand, if he doesn’t win this one,” McKay said, while also noting the Dolphins played the Thursday night game in Week 2. “Miami has extra rest.
“I’m also impressed with defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver, who gets some guys back from a makeshift defense that contained Josh Allen in Week 2.”
The Dolphins were in it throughout at Buffalo, with a chance to tie at 28 before Tua Tagovailoa threw an interception with Miami just outside the red zone. The Bills went on to win 31-21.
Another factor: Jets QB Justin Fields is questionable while in concussion protocol.
Thursday Theater
The NFC West gets the Thursday night spotlight in NFL Week 4 odds, with the Seahawks (2-1 SU and ATS) visiting the Cardinals (2-1 SU and ATS). This line jumped the fence at Caesars, opening at Cardinals -1.5 on Sunday and flipping to Seahawks -1.5 by Tuesday afternoon.
“So far, we’re seeing a lot of action on the Seahawks, both on the spread and the moneyline,” Feazel said. “The Seahawks are a little bit underrated. But now they’re getting some respect. It’s one-way action on the Seahawks.”
That includes sharp bettors taking Seattle at +1.5 and pick ‘em.
Sunday Night Showdown
Micah Parsons gets a shot at his former team when the Packers and Cowboys square off Sunday night. The Cowboys (1-2 SU and ATS) traded the standout edge rusher to the Packers just before Week 1.
Green Bay (2-1 SU and ATS) was the talk of the town after wins over Detroit and Washington. Then the Packers were dealt a stunning 13-10 upset as 7.5-point favorites at Cleveland.
But that’s not swaying the public betting masses this week. Caesars opened Green Bay -5.5, went to -6 right away Sunday, then got to -6.5/-7 on Monday. As of Wednesday afternoon, it’s Packers -6.5.
“It’s one-way traffic on the Packers, and I don’t see that stopping,” Feazel said. “They continue to be the public darling, with bettors laying 6.5 and 7. And the Cowboys not having CeeDee Lamb is worth at least half a point to the spread.”
Lamb is expected to miss three to four weeks with a high ankle sprain.
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
NFL Week 4 odds haven’t seen much in the way of major wagers at midweek. So let’s hop in the not-so-wayback machine to a massive Monday night wager that proved to be a big donation to the house: $249,780 on Lions-Ravens Under 54.5.
It was a sweat throughout the first three quarters: tied at seven after the first quarter, a 14-14 tie at half and a 21-all tie through three quarters. So the game was on an Over pace, but not by much.
However, a 26-point fourth quarter lit that quarter-million dollars on fire, with Detroit winning 38-30 for a total of 68 points.
Another DraftKings customer got a much better result, putting $105,000 on Lions +4.5 (-105). Detroit’s outright win sealed a $100,000 profit (total payout $205,000).
I also like small bets with big payouts, and you can’t do much better than wagering $3 on a 13-team moneyline parlay, then having all 13 teams win.
That’s what happened for a Hard Rock Bet customer. Detroit’s victory clinched the bet, turning three bucks into $29,342. Hard Rock noted the bettor opted against the pregame cashout offer of $9,198.66.
FanDuel Sportsbook had a couple interesting Lions-Ravens player-prop parlays:
- $95.20 on David Montgomery and Mark Andrews to both have at least two touchdowns, at odds of +10462 – or almost 105/1.
- $15 on a five-leg anytime-touchdown parlay of Andrews/Montgomery/Derrick Henry/Jahmyr Gibbs/Rashod Bateman.
On the first ticket, Montgomery scored a second-quarter TD and a late-fourth-quarter TD, while Andrews had a third-quarter TD, then clinched the bet with just 29 seconds left in regulation. The bettor turned that $95.20 into a hefty profit of $9,959.82 (total payout $10,055.02).
Odds on that second parlay were in the same neighborhood, approximately 103/1. It was hardly a sweat at all, as four of those players — Gibbs, Henry, Montgomery, Bateman — scored in the first half, and Andrews scored six minutes into the third quarter.
So the customer pocketed a nice payout of $1,549.03.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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