Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen knows when a quarterback is on a heater.
Steichen coached Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert while serving as the quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers. He also worked with Jalen Hurts when he first took over as the team’s starting quarterback during his tenure as offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles.
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And now, as the head coach of the Indianapolis Colts, Steichen has an up-close view of the NFL’s latest reclamation project: Daniel Jones. Like Geno Smith, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield before him, Jones has transformed into an elite performer through the first three weeks of the season after getting released by the New York Giants last season before spending the end of the year with the Minnesota Vikings.
“I think he’s just seeing it really well, getting us in the right plays,” Steichen said. “He’s delivering the ball with accuracy. He’s playing really freaking good right now.”
Jones is third in passing yards (816), second in yards per attempt (9.3) and third in passer rating (111.7) through the first three weeks of the season. He’s also only been sacked twice in three games, adding 55 rushing yards and three rushing scores.
Daniel Jones has show true dual-threat ability during his first few games with the Colts. He’s statistically been one of the league’s best passers while rushing for three touchdowns. (Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images)
Jones is playing at a high level right now, but is it sustainable? The teams Indianapolis has defeated this season are a combined 1-8 this year (Dolphins, Broncos and Titans), so the Colts will face their first real test on the road against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 4.
But Jones has rightly entered the MVP conversation with his performance through the first three weeks. And that’s shown with his MVP odds improving to +8000 this week, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Reigning MVP Josh Allen is the favorite this week at +250, followed by Lamar Jackson (+300). Justin Herbert jumped from +800 to +500 after another stellar performance in leading the Los Angeles Chargers to a 3-0 record.
Here’s a closer look at my top five for MVP Watch heading into Week 4.
1. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (Last week: 2)
Allen and the Bills are riding a 13-game home winning streak with the winless New Orleans Saints up next. During that streak, Allen has posted 37 total touchdowns and a 105.4 passer rating. With a victory over New Orleans, the Bills would begin the season 4-0 for the first time since 2020.
One of the reasons for Allen’s success this season is his efficiency in the short passing game. Only seven other quarterbacks have attempted more throws under 10 yards or behind the line of scrimmage. On those throws, Allen is 55 of 67 (82%) for 476 yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Odds to win MVP: +250
2. Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (Last week: 4)
Herbert leads the league in passing yards with 860, but those big numbers have come at a cost. He was hit 14 times and sacked five times in his comeback win over the Denver Broncos last week. For the season, Herbert has been hit 52 times and sacked 10 times. Only Joe Flacco (53) has been hit more this year.
Justin Herbert has had to more for the Chargers’ offense that some might have thought he would this season, leading the league in passing through the first three weeks. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman must also do a better job of running the football to create balance on offense. The Chargers are averaging 92 yards per game, No. 24 in the NFL.
Odds to win MVP: +500
3. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (Last Week: 1)
Jackson is the fourth quarterback in NFL history with a passer rating of at least 125.0 in each of his team’s first three games of the regular season, joining John Hadl (1973 with the Los Angeles Rams), Patrick Mahomes (2019) and Russell Wilson (2020).
Speaking of Mahomes, Jackson faces his quarterback rival in a nationally televised contest on Sunday. It’s the seventh time in the past eight seasons the Chiefs and Ravens have faced off, including the postseason. Five of the previous six meetings have all been decided by seven points or fewer. Jackson is 1-4 all-time against Mahomes.
Odds to win MVP: +300
4. Daniel Jones, QB, Indianapolis Colts (Last week: unranked)
Per Next Gen Stats, Jones has completed 27 of 43 passes for an NFL-high 415 yards and a touchdown against the blitz this season. His 59.6% success rate against the blitz in 2024 is much better than his career success rate of 40.9%.
The Colts have punted just once this year. And with a win over the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium, Indianapolis can start the season 4-0 for the first time since 2009.
Odds to win MVP: +8000
5. Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last week: unranked)
The Oklahoma product debuts at No. 5 on the list after leading the Buccaneers to another late-game victory, this time against the Jets. He was able to get Tampa Bay in field goal range after New York’s surprising blocked field goal touchdown return, giving the Buccaneers the win at the buzzer to improve to 3-0.
Mayfield has surprisingly found success this season by using his feet. Mayfield has scrambled for 118 yards through three weeks, the second-most in a game in his career, per Next Gen Stats. He’s gained eight first downs on scrambles this season after converting 21 first downs all last season.
And Mayfield’s still been one of the game’s top passers. He’s led the NFL in touchdown passes (75) since 2023, logging six already this season (tied for fifth in the league).
Odds to win MVP: +1800
Honorable mention: Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, Bijan Robinson, Patrick Mahomes, Jonathan Taylor.
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on X at @eric_d_williams.
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