The Eagles’ Super Bowl defense will start in a heated way.
Thursday night, the defending champs will receive a visit from their bitter division rival Dallas.
The number for this game was sitting around 7 until the news broke last week that the Cowboys traded superstar pass rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers.
Dallas received two first round picks and defensive tackle Kenny Clark in return.
Those two draft picks won’t help them win games now, but Clark is certainly an upgrade over their current interior defensive lineman options.
However, the loss of Parsons cannot be undersold. When he was on the field for the Cowboys defense, they were No. 1 in defensive efficiency. When he was off the field for just over 1,000 plays in his career, the Cowboys defense is ranked 31st in the same category.
There’s just no way to replace that level of production in a few weeks.
The question now is how to wager on it because the line has gotten well above 7 if you’re backing the Eagles.
With all this in mind, here’s how I’m wagering the first game of the season.
Will the Eagles defend their title this season?
Eagles team total Over/Under 28.5 points scored
Philly’s offense is returning 10 of its 11 starters from last season, and while the Eagles do have a new offensive coordinator, I expect them to hit the ground running. They had a new offensive coordinator last season, too, in Kellen Moore and still put up 34 points against the Packers. They’ll control the line of scrimmage and the Cowboys won’t be able to hit the quarterback.
Who is going to disrupt Jalen Hurts without Parsons and against this Eagles offensive tackle group?
I don’t see much resistance from this Cowboys group on Thursday night. I also think there’s an opportunity for a late touchdown while the Eagles are trying to grind out the clock for victory.
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PICK: Eagles team total Over 28.5 points scored
Dak Prescott Over/Under 2.5 rush attempts
Dak Prescott is a mobile quarterback but not a rushing quarterback.
In the three seasons between 2021-2023 where he played a majority of games, he averaged just over three rushing attempts per game.
That number jumps when he’s playing the Eagles.
In 2023, he played the Eagles twice. In one of those, he rushed three times and in the other, he rushed six. In 2022, he rushed six times against the Eagles in only one matchup. In 2021, he had nine rushing attempts in a game against the Eagles early in the season.
With the Eagles pass rush, I expect Prescott to be on the move since he’ll need to buy time or create plays with his legs. That might include some designed rushing attempts if the Eagles defense is shutting down the Cowboys running backs.
Week 1 is also a fantastic time to break out some of those plays, since defenses might not be ready for them.
PICK: Dak Prescott (+130) Over 2.5 rush attempts
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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