2025 NFL Odds: Will Underdogs Bark Big in Week 1?

Last updated: 2025/09/02 at 7:06 PM

BigP Published September 2, 2025

In recent years, NFL Week 1 has been prime time for ‘dogs to bark.

According to BetMGM, since 2010, when teams are underdogs of six points or more in the first week of the regular season, those squads have gone 41-27-1 against the spread (ATS).

That’s good for a 60% cover rate.

Now that the season is kicking off, let’s look at a few of the big underdogs for Week 1 at BetMGM as of Sept. 2, along with some expert insight.

THURSDAY, SEPT. 4

Cowboys +8 @ Eagles

SUNDAY, SEPT. 7

Saints +6.5 vs. Cardinals
Giants +6 @ Commanders
Titans +8 @ Broncos

The first game of the season features the reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles facing off against the Cowboys.

Dallas has been at the center of the news lately after contract extension talks with Micah Parsons broke down, leading to the team unceremoniously trading the four-time Pro Bowl defensive end to Green Bay.

In the wake of Parsons’ departure, do the 8-point underdog Cowboys have a chance to follow the trend and cover the big spread when they face Philly?

According to “First Things First” co-host Chris Broussard, the answer is a resounding no.

“Dallas is going to get routed,” he said. “Even with Micah gone, Dallas has had an offseason full of distractions.

“Philly, I think, has been set on football. They have had no drama this offseason. So I think everything’s leading up to an Eagles’ rout.”

Why ‘everything is adding up to an Eagles rout’ in Week 1

Another Week 1 game that features a big underdog is Sunday’s Giants-Commanders matchup.

Washington exceeded expectations last season, reaching the conference title game with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. New York, on the other hand, went 3-14 in 2024.

To help alleviate their quarterback woes, the Giants signed veteran QB Russell Wilson to a one-year deal in the offseason.

Will 6-point underdog New York keep it close against Daniels & Co.?

Like Broussard, FOX Sports NFL writer Eric Williams is backing the favorite.

“[Washington] head coach Dan Quinn gets his first look at a New York offense led by Russell Wilson, with whom he teamed up to win a Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks,” Williams wrote.

“But the Commanders swept the season series with their NFC East rivals last year and have won four of the past six games. They’ll continue to have the Giants’ number here.”

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