So far this NFL season, we’ve seen teams have the misfortune of getting bitten by the injury bug, and we’ve also seen some veterans get benched for the younger next man up.
The games that I’m wagering on in Week 4 have a little bit of both. Let’s dive into it.
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Russell Wilson is out as the Giants quarterback after starting the season 0-3 with an offense that has looked lifeless.
Rookie Jaxson Dart will make his first NFL start against the Chargers on Sunday, and I see the potential for the young quarterback to struggle.
The Chargers defense, even without Khalil Mack, is fast and it flies around. It has been difficult to score on all season. It limited the Chiefs to 21 points in Week 1, then gave up nine to the Raiders in Week 2, followed by allowing 20 for the Broncos — Denver was aided with some short fields — in Week 3.
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New York’s offensive line is a concern outside of Andrew Thomas and the offense is not flush with skill and talent. I’d imagine Dart targets Malik Nabers more than Wilson did, but none of the other weapons are a concern.
The Giants also lost running back Tyrone Tracy for a few weeks, and while we all enjoy watching Cam Skattebo run, he’s not as dynamic of a runner. The Chargers defense should feast in this game.
On the other hand, L.A.’s offense has been rolling with Justin Herbert but has not scored as many points as one would expect. After putting up 27 against the Chiefs, the Bolts scored 20 against the Raiders and 23 against Denver. They shuffled around their offensive line because of injuries and that has shown to present some consistency issues.
The Giants defensive line is a top-three unit, and it has potential wins at every spot. Dexter Lawrence against the Chargers’ center or even their guards can be a huge advantage for the G-Men.
I think we see a lower scoring game with that early kickoff window for the West Coast Chargers.
PICK: Under 43.5 points scored by both teams combined
I lean Seattle in this contest but not enough to make a wager on the side.
I try to stay away from Thursday Night Football sides, as these games can be wonky. However, I like a prop in this one.
Arizona’s best running back, James Conner, is out for the season. Conner was an important part of the Cardinals offense and took pressure off Kyler Murray. He rushed for over 1,000 yards last season but was slow to start this year before the injury. With him out of the lineup, I think Murray has to run the ball more often.
The Cardinals will need to use Murray in designed runs to mitigate the loss of Conner. There’s also the possibility that Murray takes off against a Seattle pass rush that will present him with trouble.
Arizona is going to feel the heat of trying to avoid a 1-3 start, as their division foe, San Francisco, looks to get win No. 4.
PICK: Kyler Murray Over 29.5 rushing yards
Good time to fade the red-hot Colts, who are 3-0 to start the season.
The Colts beat the pathetic Dolphins in Week 1. They needed a weird officiating play to win in Week 2, and then they dominated the woeful Titans.
The Rams are none of those three teams and will be the stiffest competition Indianapolis has played so far.
Los Angeles is coming off that embarrassing loss in Philly, where its offense completely shut down in the second half and had back-to-back blocked kicks that led to a loss. L.A. owned the line of scrimmage in the first half and that will be critical to stopping the Colts’ rushing attack. No team has forced Colts’ quarterback Daniel Jones to operate in third-and-long situations — scenarios where he’s likely to struggle. I think the Rams can do that.
The Rams offense has played better every week as Matthew Stafford gets into a flow after missing training camp. I don’t think we know much about the Colts defense yet. It played one competent offense and the Broncos scored 28 points.
PICK: Rams (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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