Too many favorites winning, and definitely too many Overs — that was the common thread in bookmakers’ comments on NFL Week 2 odds.
Which is exactly what the public betting masses want to hear.
“Just judging by the amount of Overs and favorites winning, the bettors had a nice day,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said.
Oddsmakers at sportsbooks in Las Vegas and across the country recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.
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How ‘Bout Them Cowboys?
Dallas closed as a 4.5-point home favorite against New York. But the Cowboys found themselves in a back-and-forth battle throughout.
In fact, New York took a 37-34 lead with 25 seconds left, after Giants QB Russell Wilson uncorked a 48-yard touchdown pass to Malik Nabers.
However, those 25 seconds were enough to put Brandon Aubrey in position for a 64-yard field goal. Aubrey drilled it to force overtime, then won it for Dallas 40-37 on a 46-yarder on the final play of OT.
“We always need a favorite to lose. And Dallas definitely should have lost. That’s life in the NFL,” said John Murray, vice president of The SuperBook.
The result wasn’t necessarily a day-breaker for the books. But it would’ve been a day-maker.
“The Giants winning would’ve helped quite a bit,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. “We can’t get a legit underdog to win outright.”
Indeed, favorites are 11-3 straight up (SU) and 10-4 against the spread (ATS) heading to the Monday night doubleheader. The straight-up wins kept alive a lot of moneyline parlays for the public betting masses.
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Dallas was on plenty of those tickets, along with the Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. All three rolled, with Detroit ripping Chicago 52-21, Baltimore beating Cleveland 41-17 and Buffalo topping the New York Jets 30-10.
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Game of the Day
The Super Bowl rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs was the marquee matchup in NFL Week 2 odds. It wasn’t a blowout this time, but the end result was the same: the Eagles win, 20-17.
Even against the Chiefs and on the road, Philly was a popular favorite. That put multiple sportsbooks in the unusual spot of needing K.C. at home, and the Chiefs couldn’t deliver.
“To be rooting for Kansas City at Arrowhead, that’s a strange situation. It’s not normal,” Murray said. “Betting was more lopsided on the Eagles than I would’ve expected, especially with Kansas City being at home.”
It’s Never Under Til It’s Over
In Week 1, the Under went 12-4, which isn’t good for the public betting masses. They want to see things happen. They bet Overs.
The public got what it wanted in Week 2.
Through 14 games, the Over is 10-4, and a trio of those Overs were in games featuring popular teams in Detroit, Baltimore and Dallas.
All three of those teams played in the early window Sunday, which set the tone for bettors and bookmakers.
“Overs going 8-1 in the early games is not what you want to see,” BetMGM’s Cipollini said.
One of the few games that went better for bookmakers was the Sunday night Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings clash. Atlanta won 22-6 as a 3.5-point road underdog, and the Under easily cashed on a total of 44.5.
“Falcons and Under were what we were rooting for,” SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon said, noting that helped salvage Sunday. “It was a very small winning day for us.”
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From Loser to Winner
If you were on the Denver Broncos -1.5 or the Indianapolis Colts +1.5, then you went through a range of emotions at game’s end.
With Denver leading 28-26, Indy lined up for a potential game-winning 60-yard field goal. But Spencer Shrader didn’t have enough leg as time expired, seemingly giving the Broncos the win and spread bettors a narrow cover.
But wait, there’s more.
Denver was flagged for a leverage penalty. A game can’t end on a defensive penalty, and in this case, it was a 15-yarder, giving Shrader a much more tenable 45-yard try.
He booted it through and Indy won 29-28, with Colts +1.5 bettors — and Colts moneyline bettors, for that matter — winning their wagers.
On Campus
Unlike the NFL, college football Week 3 odds showed better returns for the bookmakers, particularly at BetMGM. And particularly in the most popular matchups.
Tennessee saw plenty of sharp action vs. Georgia and was a trendy home underdog with public bettors. The Bulldogs eked out a 44-41 overtime win, but didn’t cover as 3.5-point favorites.
However, BetMGM more so needed Georgia to just win the game, as Tennessee was a popular moneyline play to pull the modest upset. BetMGM also needed LSU by at least 7 points and got there with the Tigers’ 20-10 victory.
And Texas A&M, a 6.5-point underdog at Notre Dame, capped the day with a 41-40 upset on a touchdown with 13 seconds left.
“Saturday joins Week 1 as two of the best college football Saturdays the house has seen in the past few years,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. “Nearly every big decision went our way. A&M outright was a big way to end the night.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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