College football fans are being treated to a hotly anticipated Big 12 matchup in Week 4 that could determine who’s in the driver’s seat of the conference for the rest of the season.
No. 17 Texas Tech and No. 16 Utah will meet in Salt Lake City on “Big Noon Saturday” this weekend, which I’ll be on the call for. So, I won’t be making a pick for that game, as it shapes up to be a fun one.
However, I will be making picks for a few other notable games on the slate this weekend, including a pair of intriguing early Big Ten matchups and a ranked battle in the SEC.
Let’s get to my preview and picks.
This is a great matchup, particularly when Utah’s offensive line and Texas Tech’s defensive line are on the field. On the Red Raiders’ side, this is a group that brought in a couple of guys who I think are excellent players. Linebackers Romello Height and David Bailey have been good pass rushers at the end of the line of scrimmage, but they’re going to have a big test going up against Utah’s O-line. I think the Utes’ offensive line might be the best in the country, with offensive tackle Spencer Fano being someone who I believe will be a top-15 pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
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I think that matchup is going to be where the game’s won or lost, but both quarterbacks are also intriguing. Utah’s Devon Dampier has been someone I’ve really loved to watch early on this season. His short-area quickness and ability to create are real problems for defenses. He’s a better passer than people are led to believe, but he has provided something special for Utah as it hasn’t gotten great quarterback play over the years. I feel like Utah now has a guy who can lead it to a Big 12 title.
Utah’s also got some two-way players on the roster, and I can’t wait to see how they deploy them on Saturday. Smith Snowden’s a great cornerback, but he plays running back at times. Lander Barton is Utah’s best linebacker, but he’ll also play some H-back and tight end. Safety Jackson Bennee also gets some run on both sides of the ball. It’s unique, but head coach Kyle Whittingham is getting his best players on the field.
For Texas Tech, its offense runs through quarterback Behren Morton. He’s having a terrific year after having a good season in 2024. This wasn’t a team that was hurt by its offense a year ago, with its defense being the focus of its major spending spree in the transfer portal. Texas Tech’s defense has played well so far as a result, while its offense has remained explosive. It’s No. 1 in the country in several categories. The Red Raiders can score from everywhere, and I love Morton’s wide receivers (especially Coy Eakin, who they call “Cowboy Coy”). There’s a chance for big plays for Texas Tech with how aggressive Utah’s defense can be.
This should be a terrific game in one of college football’s most outstanding environments. This is really a battle for midseason supremacy in the Big 12, with all due respect to Iowa State.
This is the second game of the two-game suspension that Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore is serving, but that is a catalyst game for both teams. If you’re Michigan, you can’t have a second loss so early in the season. For Nebraska, this would be a huge win as it hasn’t defeated a ranked opponent in its last 27 such games.
Matt Rhule’s Nebraska squad relied on its defense last year. However, it lost both defensive tackles that really made that unit strong, especially against the run. It isn’t as stingy against the run this year, which is a problem when you’re welcoming in Michigan. Nebraska is currently 75th at stopping the run, with Cincinnati putting up 202 rushing yards in the season opener.
In fact, Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby ran for nearly 100 yards and two touchdowns in that game. That might shape well for Michigan QB Bryce Underwood, who is slowly getting the bubble wrap removed from him. He rushed for six first downs and two scores last week, while RB Justice Haynes has had three 100-yard games to start the season.
I think Nebraska is going to have to rely on its offense for success. It has looked good so far during the opening part of the season and QB Dylan Raiola has looked good. If it can get the passing game going early and stay balanced, the crowd becomes much more of a factor. Ultimately, though, I think Michigan is able to pull away with a double-digit win.
Pick: Michigan 34, Nebraska 21 (Michigan -2.5)
Auburn’s off to a good start this year, and now quarterback Jackson Arnold can get some revenge in his return to the “Palace on the Prairie.” Nobody knows Arnold better than OU head coach Brent Venables and that defense, though. They just went through a season of struggles on offense with Arnold at quarterback. They know what he struggles with, what he doesn’t see and which looks he might struggle with against the blitz.
That’s not a great omen for Auburn. We also know Arnold struggles with pressure at times. Beyond the injuries, part of the reason for Oklahoma’s struggles on offense last season was due to poor offensive line play. Arnold dealt with more pressure than he could handle, so I’d anticipate Oklahoma’s defense to be aggressive and put its former quarterback in an uncomfortable spot.
Flipping things around, Oklahoma QB John Mateer is playing the best football of anybody in the country. He can put his team on his back and win games like he did against Michigan, which is why I have Mateer as the No. 1 quarterback in the country. He’s a baller and there’s really a belief around the program that I haven’t seen with the program since it had back-to-back Heisman-winning quarterbacks during the Lincoln Riley era.
John Mateer and Dante Moore headline Joel Klatt’s top CFB QBs this season
In fact, speaking to some people around that Oklahoma program, they see a lot of Baker Mayfield in Mater. The way he handles practice and how the team loves Mateer can’t be understated. We see this team playing hard for Mateer because of his leadership style and ability.
I think Oklahoma is really on the brink of a special season, even with a tough schedule. If I were Venables, I’d say, “Yeah, I know we have a tough go of it. But you know who else does? Anyone who has to play us.”
This could be a bit of a high-scoring affair due to Mateer and the playmakers Auburn has at wide receiver. Because of that, the quarterbacks have to be great, and I favor Mateer to do that over Arnold.
Pick: Oklahoma 34, Auburn 27 (Oklahoma -6.5)
This is a massive game with College Football Playoff implications. The winner of this game sets itself to be the third or fourth CFP team out of the Big Ten with the way their schedules line up.
As for the matchup, Illinois QB Luke Altmyer has been really good. He’s like Iowa State QB Rocco Becht in that if the game’s close, I trust him because of his experience. That’s why Indiana being favored surprised me, but Illinois still has to play an Illinois-style game. Indiana wants to play more up-tempo on offense, while Illinois is going to want to drag this game down and make it a bit of a grind.
Flipping things around, Illinois’ defense is an excellent defense. This is a man-oriented unit, which is good for when you go up against an RPO-style team against Indiana. It can create tight windows and put pressure on the quarterback, making the opponent move too fast. That’s what Indiana did to Duke in its road win earlier this month.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza has been solid this season. The Cal transfer has yet to turn the ball over and has 11 total touchdowns through the first three games, but I’m not sure if Indiana is as good as it was a year ago.
That said, I think Illinois wins this game outright.
Pick: Illinois 24, Indiana 21 (Illinois +5.5)
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to “The Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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