QB Stock Market: Projecting How All 32 Starters Will Fare In 2025

Henry McKenna

NFL Reporter

If anyone showed how hard it is to play quarterback, it was Arch Manning.

This article may be about NFL quarterbacks, but it is — most of all — an article about quarterbacking. So let’s take a tangent into college, shall we? And it’s justified, in part, because many folks think Manning is a future first overall pick. But he didn’t look it this past Saturday. While his season debut for the Texas Longhorns had the pageantry of royalty, his actual play on the field was pedestrian. Manning looked like a young kid who was in over his head.

“Maybe hold off on tanking for Arch,” an AFC executive texted me.

There could come a time when teams tank for Arch. But yeah, let’s hold off.

The lesson from Week 1 of college football was simple: We’ve exited hype season. We’ve exited the best-shape-of-his-life phase of the year. The games will now tell us what’s real and what’s not.

Whether you’re a Manning or a Mahomes or a Ward, it’s hard to play quarterback. I don’t think we (fans and media) always work to wrap our heads around just how difficult it is. So before we get into the rankings, let’s dive into the simple act of calling a play in the huddle (which excludes preparing for the play at the line of scrimmage and executing the play under duress).

Here are Tony Romo and Matt Ryan explaining the difficulties of spitting out plays. Don’t be surprised if you have to watch the clip a few times.

This is all to say that I don’t want my rankings to feel reductive, like the conversation around Manning got on social media. Quarterbacking is a rigorous job, and one season — let alone one start — is not necessarily indicative of who a guy is or can be. In this edition of the QB Stock Market, I’m looking at how I think the NFL’s 32 starters will play this year and where they will land by the end of the regular season. (This isn’t a look at where the players stand currently.) So, think about projection, not reflection.

I’m going to take Patrick Mahomes for his word.

The Chiefs QB told reporters in training camp that he wants to get the ball downfield. He wants to hit the deep shot. And he wants to have more fun on the field, which I take to mean that we’ll see a more creative version of Mahomes in 2025. More throws that you have to watch 10 times to comprehend. More escapes from the pocket. More plays that make people think the NFL is rigged (which it is not).

The thing that could compromise Mahomes’ theatrical play is his desire to win. Over the past few years, we’ve seen Mahomes sacrifice what makes him popular (highlight-reel plays) to ensure his team’s and his own greatness. Which is actually quite unselfish. Just look at his stats: boring and unimpressive. But look at where the Chiefs continually finish: in the Super Bowl.

Mahomes’ latest skill is knowing when he’s not needed. And given how KC built its recent rosters, the quarterback hasn’t had to do what Joe Burrow has had to do — putting the entire team on his back. Nor has Mahomes had the tools to do it. (His receivers and offensive line weren’t good last year.) The defense has led the way. Mahomes just keeps every duck in a row.

But will he do more this year? There’s hype out of camp about a more solid left side of the offensive line, with rookie tackle Josh Simmons and guard Kingsley Suamataia. There’s hype, too, about the receiver room (which I would feel better about if Rashee Rice wasn’t serving a six-game suspension to start the year). There’s always hype. They’re the Chiefs!

I won’t be surprised if Mahomes ends the season as No. 5 on this list. But right now, I’m going to make the other guys take the mantle from him.

Among life’s hardest questions: Who is QB2 in the NFL?

Even harder: Who will be QB2 at the end of 2025?

Burrow has all the same weapons as last year. He has all the same defensive issues, which will mean he’s constantly in a shootout. Burrow will have to play his butt off every week, and we’ve seen he can do exactly that. I could even see a scenario in which he eclipses Mahomes as soon as Week 1. The thing that’ll be different is that he’ll actually win games at the outset of this season.

Who’s the best QB in the NFL right now? Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes both have their supporters. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

I’m worried about what might happen to Daniels under the weight of expectations — and the weight of the 2024 game film (that you can bet defensive coordinators have spent the offseason studying). The NFL will be ready for Daniels in Year 2. Will he be ready for his opponents?

And that’s where my worries begin to fade. Daniels is one of the most intelligent and overprepared youngsters in the NFL. He was on the cutting edge of virtual reality’s integration with football, which helped him operate Kliff Kingsbury’s offense at a high level. Daniels and Kingsbury should be prepared to meet whatever challenges are on the horizon.

“[Daniels] has a Houdini way about him — he can just make a play regardless of the circumstances,” an NFC general manager told me.

It’s also not like the Commanders are simply running it back. They got Laremy Tunsil at left tackle. And they brought in Deebo Samuel, who may be the butt of jokes on X but is actually a crucial schematic domino for opening up more space in Washington’s offense.

Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts could be battling for NFC supremacy for years to come. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Everything is falling into place for Prescott to have a career year in a handful of passing categories. And that’s saying something. Remember, Prescott has thrown for 4,902 yards in a single season. He’s thrown 37 touchdowns. He has even rushed for six (in three different seasons). I’m not saying he’ll eclipse every one of those totals. But some, no doubt.

In the wake of the Micah Parsons trade, the Cowboys offense will be even more important to victory. And certainly, they have star power, with receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. It’s likely — given the Dallas defense has been one of the league’s worst when Parsons isn’t in the lineup — that Prescott will have to do something similar to what Burrow did for the Bengals did last year. I don’t necessarily think Prescott is that caliber of player. But even if Prescott does 90% of what Burrow did, we’ll again be talking about him as one of the best pocket passers in the league.

Will Jim Harbaugh let Justin Herbert cook more in their second season together? (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Emmitt Smith had a mantra when he played in the NFL: “If you can’t play with pain you can’t play the game.” I stumbled upon that quote in the Cowboys’ Netflix docuseries. But it left me thinking about Jordan Love, whom I watched go 3 of 12 in 7-on-7 red-zone drills in a joint practice against the Seahawks during training camp.

Love, who is dealing with a thumb injury, was playing with a cast on his left, non-throwing hand — which meant that he wasn’t even taking the snaps, just simulating them — and the QB looked completely lost for answers against the Seattle secondary.

If you look at 2024, you can chalk up his struggles to injuries. You can. Or you can think of Smith’s quote — and wonder whether Love will ever be healthy enough to rediscover his 2023 form when he threw for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns.

After speaking with Love and speaking with Love’s teammates about the QB, I came away from Green Bay with a greater appreciation for him. But until he proves he can play through injuries with consistency, I’m not sure he’s a top-10 QB.

At Vikings training camp, I saw something I didn’t expect. McCarthy closed out a full-team scrimmage and, while he had running back Aaron Jones and tight end T.J. Hockenson, he did not have receiver Justin Jefferson … or Jordan Addison … or Jalen Nailor … or even left tackle Christian Darrisaw. They were all dealing with injuries. And I wondered whether we’ve assumed a few too many things about Minnesota.

McCarthy steps into a situation in Minnesota where quarterbacks almost seem interchangeable. Sam Darnold led the league in passing yards for parts of last season and made an epic career comeback, proving he can be a legitimate NFL starter, after all. McCarthy’s situation — with coach Kevin O’Connell, Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson and Jones — would appear idyllic.

But it’s not so simple. Even the Vikings seemed to acknowledge McCarthy was not totally set up for success, having traded for receiver Adam Thielen last week.

I’m not saying it’s time to panic. I’m just saying it’s not picture-perfect in Minnesota.

Brock Purdy enters his fourth season with more doubters than believers after he and the 49ers took a step back in 2024. (Photo by Scott Strazzante/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)

The Seahawks’ offense will surprise some people, not just in its efficiency but also in its composition. Obviously, people know there are some new characters at the center of the Seahawks offense. There’s Darnold, Cooper Kupp and new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak — all set to join receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running backs Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III.

The Seahawks are using condensed formations that will remind folks of the Rams. But Seattle seems dead set on running the ball like Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers. Those are two good offenses for a QB. I’m not sure Darnold will get much love this year, but I do think he’ll play at a respectable level for a Seahawks team that’ll be much better than people expect.

Drake Maye’s talent is evident. But will his supporting cast hold him back in Year 2? (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Can Ben Johnson unlock Caleb Williams’ full potential? (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

We’ve never ignored a prospect quite like we’ve ignored Ward, particularly given the obvious comparisons between him and Mahomes. Ward’s flying under the radar is a confluence of three things: 1) an underwhelming 2025 QB draft class, 2) no one (outside of Tennessee) caring about the Titans, and 3) Ward’s understated, hard-working personality.

I’m just not sure if he has what it takes to do what Will Levis, Marcus Mariota, Jake Locker and Vince Young couldn’t do: turn around the Titans franchise. The last homegrown QB to do that was Steve McNair, whom the Houston Oilers drafted in 1995 (two years before the franchise relocated to Tennessee). And maybe that’s what ultimately quiets the narratives around Ward. The Titans don’t have infrastructure in place to get excited about the young QB in the same way that you might with McCarthy or Daniels.

How long will Russell Wilson hold off rookie Jaxson Dart for the Giants’ starting job? (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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