Last weekend, I picked against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, and they weren’t penalized a single time over 60 minutes.
Good times!
This weekend, there are a handful of juicy college football spots and the Chicago Bears are laying how many?! Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
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2025 record: 17-21-2, -5.9 units
No. 20 USC @ No. 13 Notre Dame (-9.5, O/U 60.5)
Watch out for Notre Dame. I thought my numbers were too high when they said the Irish were fifth in the country. Then a former Vegas bookmaker told me they’re his third-highest rated team. C.J. Carr has unleashed the passing attack, and we know how solid the running game is. USC might hang around early, but I feel like the Trojans get knocked out late.
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PICK: Notre Dame (-9.5) to win by more than 9.5 points
No. 8 Oregon (-17.5, O/U 61) @ Rutgers
Plug your nose for this play. It’s never popular to bet Rutgers against a high-profile team and people will talk smack if Oregon wins by 28. Them’s the breaks. This is a sleepy, horrible spot for a Ducks squad that was dominated in the trenches by Indiana and now must fly across the country. It’s difficult to imagine you get max effort from Oregon here. Just win and get out.
PICK: Rutgers (+17.5) to lose by fewer than 17.5 points or win outright
Maryland @ UCLA (-3, O/U 52.5)
Bruins interim coach Tim Skipper deserves his flowers for getting UCLA to fight the last two weeks. The program was left for dead against Penn State and Michigan State and won both games outright. Now it’s the ol’ reversal, where you morph into the favorite after back-to-back upsets. I have Maryland three points better on a neutral and the Rose Bowl ain’t worth six points.
PICK: Maryland (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
No. 11 Tennessee @ No. 6 Alabama (-8.5, O/U 59.5)
After betting Alabama the last three weeks, I’m going the other way in this one. Josh Heupel’s Tennessee offense speaks to me, catching more than a touchdown, and I believe the Vols keep it interesting. Receiver Chris Brazzell II leads a talented wideout core that will make plays against the Tide secondary. Here’s hoping Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar protects that precious football.
PICK: Tennessee (+8.5) to lose by fewer than 8.5 points or win outright
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, O/U 44) @ Minnesota Vikings
All signs point to Carson Wentz getting the start under center for Minnesota, giving J.J. McCarthy another week off. You know the Eagles have stewed since the Thursday night loss to the Giants and the Philly defense is much healthier. It sounds like Jalen Carter and Quinyon Mitchell will go, giving the champs much-needed playmakers to erase big plays from the Vikings offense.
PICK: Eagles (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears (-5, O/U 46.5)
The Ben Johnson hype train is back on track after the Bears blocked a game-winning field goal in Las Vegas, then Jake Moody drilled one in Landover. Sometimes, it’s better to be lucky than good. This number feels a smidge high for a Chicago team that’s still learning how to win. If the Saints can test this Bears defense on the ground, it’ll be closer than the market thinks.
PICK: Saints (+5) to lose by fewer than 5 points or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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