Sayonara, September.
Outright upsets by Alabama and the Kansas City Chiefs led to a winning week, and now we’re onto October, a much-needed change of scenery.
I believe the Crimson Tide are still undervalued in the market and this weekend, I find myself needing good college teams to do big things against lesser opponents. Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I’m betting with my own money.
Let’s go to work.
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2025 Record: (11-16-1, -6.4 units)
No. 16 Vanderbilt @ No. 10 Alabama (-11.5, O/U 56.5)
The Commodores are morphing into Saturday’s trendy underdog before our very eyes. It’s important to remember Vandy was a 23-point pup last October in Nashville, and now they’re catching 11.5 in Tuscaloosa?! Tide quarterback Ty Simpson should have a monster game and I don’t think the electric Diego Pavia will strike lightning in back-to-back years. Roll Tide.
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PICK: Alabama (-11.5) to win by more than 11.5 points
Kent State @ No. 5 Oklahoma (-45.5, O/U 53.5)
Even with the Red River game on deck, I expect Oklahoma to push the envelope with backup quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle needs to see what he’s got with Hawkins in John Mateer’s absence. Las Vegas oddsmakers believe this Kent State team is one of the worst in college football history. Don’t be surprised if it’s 59-7.
PICK: Over 53.5 points scored by both teams combined
Boise State @ No. 21 Notre Dame (-20.5, O/U 62.5)
Notre Dame’s losses against Miami and Texas A&M look better by the minute. The Fighting Irish also responded in a big way, blasting Power 4 teams Purdue and Arkansas by a combined 69 points. Boise’s been moving the ball but come on, Eastern Washington? App State? There’s a lot to like about the Irish in this matchup and I like ‘em by three touchdowns or more.
PICK: Notre Dame (-20.5) to win by more than 20.5 points
Minnesota @ No. 1 Ohio State (-23.5, O/U 43.5)
Keeping with the theme of this week, let’s bet an elite team to do what it is supposed to do. Minnesota doesn’t have the skill and speed required to challenge Ohio State on the perimeter and that seems pretty important. I expect Matt Patricia’s defense to take care of business at home and feel like the Gophers will struggle to crack 10 points.
PICK: Ohio State (-23.5) to win by more than 23.5 points
Washington Commanders @ L.A. Chargers (-3, O/U 47)
Jayden Daniels is healthy and ready for Washington, while Los Angeles could be down three offensive linemen. Yikes. Justin Herbert is taking a ton of hits under center as chronicled by a Nate Tice report saying he’s been pressured 50 times in his last 95 dropbacks. Protection is important, after all. I like the Commanders to go across the country and pull the upset.
PICK: Commanders (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, O/U 45.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
So much for the Chiefs’ window closing. Xavier Worthy’s speed and deception were a boon for Andy Reid’s offense and now Kansas City gets a Jacksonville defense that leads the league in turnovers. Can the Chiefs keep it up? And are you really going against Patrick Mahomes in primetime? You know better.
PICK: Chiefs (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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