The Chiefs appear in charge once again.
Although sitting at 3-3, Kansas City resembles the Kansas City of old, a scary proposition for the rest of the league.
As we head toward Week 7, here are my picks for two games that have caught my eye, including Kansas City in a divisional tilt.
Let’s dive in.
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The team with the best record in the AFC resides in Indianapolis.
The Colts are 5-1. They are second in overall team DVOA, first on offense and 15th on defense. It’s not a fluke. They’ve played efficient football with Daniel Jones at quarterback, they have a run game that’s mauling opponents and there is also a defense that’s doing just enough.
It’s also fair to note the Colts have beaten two teams with a single win — the Dolphins and the Titans — and another two teams with just two wins. Indy beat the Broncos in a game that Denver should have won, and the Colts’ only loss came against the Rams, who happen to be the best team on their schedule.
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The Chargers escaped with a win against the Dolphins on Sunday in a game they controlled for 55 minutes, and currently, L.A. is so beat up. It is without three offensive tackles and its top two running backs. It is missing Khalil Mack, but the defense is mostly whole. Nonetheless, the Chargers have their plan and they stick to it. I’ve said before, and it’s worth repeating: Jim Harbaugh has got the Chargers to stop “Chargering.”
That win on Sunday was a game the Chargers would have lost for years, and yet they eked out the win.
No one is going to wager on the Chargers because of their injuries, the fourth quarter against Miami and what feels like the Colts’ title wave of success. I’m going to zigzag here and L.A. to win and cover. This is a huge step-up in competition for the Colts and there are some underlying issues with their defense that concern me. The Colts aren’t great against the run and have a middle of the road pass rush. PFF ranks the Colts 18th in coverage.
While the Chargers do have injuries on the offensive line, they can still move the ball on Indy. Justin Herbert should have opportunities to throw the ball, same as Jacoby Brissett did last weekend.
The Chargers defense is good, and it will have to be solid in order to win this weekend. The Colts have an efficient offense with an excellent run game and tight end Tyler Warren is a stud. The Chargers defense struggles to stop the run, but Derwin James gives the Chargers a shot at shutting down Warren. I like the Chargers to cover.
PICK: Chargers (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points
The Chiefs offense is back.
Kansas City is up to fourth in offensive EPA, which includes ninth in passing and second (yes) in rushing. That is mostly due to Patrick Mahomes being their leading rusher, but the run game has come along nicely lately. The Chiefs have moved some of their offense under center, and it’s paid off with a more balanced attack. With Xavier Worthy coming back healthy, the offense finally has some deep shot potential. Now the Chiefs have added back Rashee Rice after starting the season with a six-game suspension. The K.C. offensive line has improved every week and Mahomes appears comfortable again in the pocket.
Lastly, the Chiefs’ offensive creativity has returned, and it’s the best they’ve played in a few seasons.
The confidence of the K.C. offense should continue this weekend against the Raiders. Las Vegas’ defense is 14th in efficiency, but when it has played a couple of legit offenses, it allowed 41 to the Commanders and 40 to the Colts.
The Chiefs have scored 37, 28 and 30 in their last three games, and it’s going to continue this weekend against the Raiders.
PICK: Chiefs Over 27.5 points scored
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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