Some NFL teams have shown us their stripes already this season, and no matter who they play, nothing is going to change how bad they look.
Then there are other squads who have taken the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde approach, playing phenomenally at times and then looking completely unrecognizable in others.
In Week 8, I’ve got wagers on all of the above and then some.
Check out where I’m putting my money on this weekend’s NFL slate.
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Why would this game be any different for the Texans?
The two-win Texans have beaten the lowly Titans and the injury-riddled Ravens. They’ve played four games against real teams and have failed to win any of them. Their offense has been pathetic in those losses. They failed to score more than 19 points in any of those four games and their offense is 22nd in overall expected points added.
Houston is only slightly better than the Ravens with their backup quarterback and the cratering Miami Dolphins. It’s not how it wanted to start its season, with a revamped offensive identity. C.J. Stroud hasn’t looked comfortable, and the offensive line — which was poor on paper — is actually poor in real life.
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The good news for the Texans is that their defense has been excellent. It’s first in EPA. It hasn’t allowed a ton of passing yards, and it is able to rush the passer well. In short, that defense is consistent and trustworthy.
Now, let’s look at San Francisco.
You have to admire the job the 49ers’ coaching staff has done this season. Injuries at quarterback and at skill positions have robbed the offense of its full potential. The 49ers are also without their two best defensive players, as pass rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner are done for the season.
But the 49ers defense has been flying around, rushing the passer and playing sound football. I know what the 49ers are, and we know what the Texans have been.
To take it a step further, why would this game on Sunday be any different for either of these teams?
What makes the Texans finally click on offense? Does Stroud play better because the Niners are missing two key defensive players? I’m not going to overthink this game, and I’m going to take the 49ers to cover the spread on the road.
I trust their game plan and coaching staff. Yes, missing key players on defense hurts, and you can make the case that, the more they play, the worse it will get. However, I’m not sure this Texans team can take advantage of it.
PICK: 49ers (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points or win outright
The Falcons are two different teams. The team at home has scored points and played defense. They did lose to the Bucs in Week 1 but then scored 34 in a win over the Commanders, and then beat the Bills 24-14.
On the road, the Falcons beat the Vikings in Week 2 but also lost to the Panthers 30-0 and then the 49ers 20-10. Now they are back home to play the lowly Dolphins, and I think their offense will be right back on track come Sunday.
Atlanta needs more consistent play from quarterback Michael Penix Jr. but does have the weapons to have an above-average passing attack. It is worth noting that the Dolphins allow opposing tight ends to have monster days. A Kyle Pitts Over receiving yards will make my bet slip, too.
Then remember that the star of the Falcons offense is their rushing attack with Bijan Robinson. He’s over 500 yards rushing this season, plus he adds the ability to catch and run.
The Miami defense is very bad. Actually, the entire team stinks, but I’m just here to discuss the defense.
It is 32nd in defensive EPA. That’s dead last in the NFL. There’s nothing to even point to that hints it might be better than its numbers. The Falcons will be looking for a get-right spot after scoring only 10 points on the road at San Francisco. I like the Falcons to score on Sunday.
PICK: Falcons team total Over 26.5 points
There’s no better spot to back Mike Tomlin than as a home underdog. This might be my favorite wager in the NFL.
Tomlin is 57% against the spread (ATS) off a loss, but he improves to 25-14 against the spread off a loss when he’s an underdog. Tomlin has been listed as the home underdog in 32 games in Pittsburgh, and he’s 22-7-3 ATS in those games.
Although their offense has looked solid with Aaron Rodgers, and it moves the ball most of the game, the Steelers lost to the Bengals on Thursday night and it was embarrassing. They were nearly a touchdown favorite and decided it was not important to guard Ja’Marr Chase.
The Green Bay squad that Pittsburgh is playing this week is worse than its record shows. The Packers are 4-1-1 and after winning their first two games of the season, they have looked nothing like the team some of us expected. A 3-point loss to the Browns, followed by a tie with the Cowboys. Then, as nearly two-touchdown favorites against the Bengals, the Packers won by eight points. Last weekend, they needed a late comeback to beat the awful Cardinals.
I’m taking the Steelers to cover this game.
PICK: Steelers (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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