One of this week’s marquee matchups — well, thee marquee matchup — features the Chiefs and the Bills.
Buffalo has had Kansas City’s number the last several years during the regular season. Does that tide change in Week 9?
Also, the Steelers are home underdogs. And if you know how I feel about Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomllin in this spot, then you might have a good idea of how I’ll wager on that game.
Or, maybe I’ve changed my tune.
Let’s dive into my best bets for NFL Week 9.
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The Chiefs and Bills meet once again. It’s the sixth year in a row these teams have met in the regular season, with the Chiefs winning during the COVID year and the Bills taking the next four games.
While Kansas City does prevail in the postseason against the Bills, that won’t matter on Sunday.
Buffalo has beaten the Chiefs four years in a row, and the reason why is simple: The Bills have been better than the Chiefs.
Buffalo was the second-best team according to DVOA in 2021; the Chiefs were sixth-best. In 2022, the Bills were first and the Chiefs fourth. In 2023 and 2024, it was more of the same.
However, the Bills are not better than the Chiefs heading into this game.
K.C. struggled compared to its standards in the first three games. The Chiefs lost to the Eagles and Chargers, and then beat the Giants ugly. Their offense looked disheveled, and their defense couldn’t stop anyone. Then, Xavier Worthy got healthy, and the offensive line started to gel with two first-time players on the left side.
Since then, the Chiefs have scored 28 points in five straight games and have looked better than at any point since Tyreek Hill was traded.
Rashee Rice, returning from his six-game suspension, has made the offense whole. That unit is up to second in DVOA, and it is facing a Bills defense that’s beaten up and injured.
Buffalo lost Ed Oliver against the Panthers and that just adds to the list of injured defensive players. The Bills were already without some defensive linemen and their most important player in middle linebacker Matt Milano. He was listed as questionable against the Panthers and did not play. It’s possible he’s back this weekend. Buffalo’s 20th-ranked defense will need him.
The Bills offense ranks fourth in DVOA, and it has still got Josh Allen, who tortures the Chiefs. He just plays so well against them because he knows they need everything from him to win that game. The offensive line is one of the best in the game and running back James Cook is legit. He just rushed for over 200 yards against the Panthers.
The question mark for the Bills is at receiver, where they don’t have elite talent and that can bog down the pass game if the run game isn’t working. The Chiefs run defense is outstanding. It’s ninth in DVOA against the run, and it’s done a great job of shutting down No. 1 backs over the years. But the Chiefs can be had in the pass game with their lack of pass rush and questionable cornerback play.
Can the Bills find open receivers against the Chiefs defense? We know the Chiefs love to dial up pressure and Allen has beaten them in the past. He’s also gotten caught with extra defenders in his face.
I like where the Chiefs are this season and I like them to cover. They are better than the Bills. I’d also like to take a look at Allen’s Over rushing attempts when the market is available. He’s had at least 10 rushing attempts in the last four regular-season meetings against K.C.
PICK: Chiefs (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points
Mike Tomlin’s Steelers as home underdogs is one of my favorite wagers to make.
Tomlin was 22-7-3 against the spread (ATS) as a home ‘dog before the Steelers got throttled by the Packers on Sunday Night Football.
Do I get off this trend or trust the years of data?
The reason why Tomlin has been good as an underdog is because, traditionally, his defense has kept his teams in games when the offense hasn’t been good enough.
That’s not the case anymore.
The Pittsburgh defense ranks 25th in efficiency. It does nothing well and can’t rush the passer. It has also allowed a ton of points this season, giving up 32 to the Jets, 31 to the Seahawks and 21 to New England. And that included the Patriots turning it over twice in the end zone.
Pittsburgh also gave up 33 to the Bengals and 35 to the Packers.
The Steelers now face a Colts offense that’s the best in the NFL. Indy is first in yards per play, first in efficiency, first in points scored and so on. It’s a legit offense that is well-designed and, with execution, should get after the Pittsburgh defense.
Unless the Colts are flat, they should move the ball well.
The Steelers offense is doing OK with Aaron Rodgers. It is 10th in offensive efficiency, and it passes the ball better than it runs it. However, the Steelers have trouble getting the ball downfield with any consistency, and it stunts some of the offense. The Colts defense is 12th in overall defensive efficiency, and it plays well as a unit.
I just can’t back the trend this weekend with Pittsburgh’s defense being a wreck.
I do think the Colts are unstoppable at the moment and the Steelers don’t have the players or coaches to slow them down.
PICK: Colts (-3) to win by more than 3 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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