How many teams would you pick to win the national championship before Notre Dame?
That question was posed by Chris “The Bear” Fallica during our “Big Noon Kickoff” production call on Monday. After two losses to open the season, Notre Dame has seemingly emerged as the nation’s best two-loss team, and looks poised to make the College Football Playoff.
But that question also led to a great thought exercise that I wanted to do with “The Bear” on my podcast, “The Joel Klatt Show.” So, we did a 12-team draft of which teams we think are the most likely to win the national championship this season.
So, this isn’t necessarily a draft of which teams we think will make the CFP. Rather, it’s a draft to determine which teams have the best chance at winning it all and who might have the highest upside.
Ohio State in the National Champion draft with Chris Fallica 👏
ADVERTISEMENT
1. The Bear: Ohio State
Bear’s thoughts: “It’s obvious. It’s easy. It’s the team that won last year, and it’s the team that’s probably going to win this year. It’s gotta be Ohio State. It’s the most complete team out there. Julian Sayin is getting better week after week. They continue to work him into the offense and throw the ball more. I think the backs will get better. The defense is impossible to score against. Yeah, they’ll probably run up against a team that plays offense better than the offenses they’ve played so far. But how can you go against Ohio State?”
2. Klatt: Indiana
This one is a bit more difficult. I debated between two teams, but I’m going against my gut. My gut tells me to go with the other one, but I don’t know if I trust their defense enough. Of the last four national champions, the worst defense of the bunch ranked fourth in all of college football. Three of those defenses were No. 1 in the country. So, I went with Indiana.
I like Indiana in this spot because the Hoosiers are balanced. They can run it. They can throw it. Fernando Mendoza’s having an incredible year. Their defense is better than people give it credit for. They got a ton of pressure against Oregon and look at what Oregon did against just about everyone else.
Fernando Mendoza #15 of the Indiana Hoosiers looks to throw a pass during the first half against the Oregon Ducks. (Photo by Soobum Im/Getty Images)
One worry that I have, I bring up the stat about how teams who’ve won a championship have had a top-five defense. That’s why I went with Indiana, but national champions also seem to have a top-15 roster. Indiana doesn’t have that, but that’s a flawed metric. Some of those players didn’t have those stars coming out of high school or in the transfer portal and they’re playing like that. Elijah Surratt is one of those guys.
For me, it’s what is their depth like? If the wrong guy gets injured, do they have the depth as some of these other power brokers to go through that? That would be my fear with Indiana.
3. The Bear: Oregon
Bear’s thoughts: “Surprise, surprise! There were two teams I was considering here, Oregon and I’ll wait and see who you pick. But you mentioned the roster construction and how blue chips still matter. Oregon’s got a ton. They might be a little young, but Oregon might have the best potential mix of portal and recruiting/homegrown talent. I think the loss at home might be a good thing.
“I love Dan Lanning. I love Dante Moore. I love the defense. It did concern me a little bit that it couldn’t run the ball as well on Indiana as I thought they would, but I thought people went a little too far from one extreme to the other.”
4. Klatt: Alabama
I wasn’t expecting that pick. Alabama looks like the team out of the SEC that’s the most formidable. It continues to get better on defense. Tennessee had the No. 1 scoring offense in the country and — granted, that game could’ve looked a lot different based on the sequence at the end of the first half — but Alabama was able to get the stop.
This is one of the premier passing games in the country, and if Alabama continues to get better running the football and on defense, it should be right there. Then, the run Alabama has been on, you brought up with Indiana if it could win three straight games against quality opponents. Well, we’ve seen Alabama win four straight games against quality opponents, top-20 teams. Those four teams that Alabama beat are 23-1 against teams that aren’t Alabama.
Ty Simpson is so good, and Alabama’s passing game has more depth this year.
Ty Simpson #15 of the Alabama Crimson Tide looks to pass against the Tennessee Volunteers. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
5. The Bear: Georgia
Bear’s thoughts: “It kills me, because we were talking about how you need a great defense to win, but I’m going to go with Georgia. I know you’re probably thinking I was going to go with another team here, but the only reason I’m going to go with Georgia is the mentality and the inability of other teams to kill this team. The Bulldogs were down double digits at Auburn and came back and won. They were down double digits at Tennessee and came back and won. They were down nine and couldn’t get a stop against Ole Miss, until they did.
“Maybe that was the Waterloo moment the other day and Georgia’s going to completely turn it around on defense. I just have to trust the pedigree and everything of what Kirby Smart’s done there.
“It wouldn’t surprise me if Georgia was playing on Jan. 19, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Gunner Stockton was in New York for the Heisman.”
6. Klatt: Notre Dame
There’s the answer to your question from Monday. I thought you were deciding between Georgia and Notre Dame. With the schedule Notre Dame has the rest of the way, I think they are virtually a lock to make the College Football Playoff. I do believe that the committee is going to look at those two losses they have — Texas A&M and Miami —- and realize those aren’t terrible losses, particularly when you’re breaking in a new quarterback.
What Notre Dame did in the run game against USC was flat-out impressive, with Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love running for a million yards. Notre Dame is really physical upfront, and its defense is getting better. It was really alarming to see its defense get cut through by Texas A&M, but it has gotten better.
Notre Dame also survived CJ Carr’s worst game. I don’t think he’s going to play as bad as he did against USC moving forward.
I’m not sure if Notre Dame is going to play at home in the first round, but its certainly a team I wouldn’t want to face.
7. The Bear: Texas A&M
Bear’s thoughts: “I bet you thought I would go somewhere else. I love my alma mater (Miami), but I’ve got to be realistic here. Texas A&M is big, nasty, physical, travels well, has a quarterback that can throw and run (Marcel Reed), those receivers (Mario Craver, KC Concepcion) are problems. Mike Elko’s gotten it right at College Station.
“Texas A&M has a tricky game in Baton Rouge this week at LSU, which is fighting to save its season. Its defense gave up 40 at South Bend and 42 points against Arkansas last week, but I think A&M is a team that — do I think it can win the national championship? Probably not. But if it gets the right path, like Notre Dame did last year — some team out there who is playing and hosting one of those first-round games is going to make a run to the title game.”
Marcel Reed #10 of the Texas A&M Aggies high-fives fans after defeating the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
8. Klatt: Miami (Fla.)
I like A&M. This is the point in the draft where I start to hem and haw. The first six teams we picked, I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them won the national championship.
For Miami, if Carson Beck just plays well, it wins that game against Louisville even though it didn’t play that great. And Louisville is a team that is going to trip someone up, particularly under Jeff Brohm.
I do like the way Miami is built, even though it didn’t run the ball well on Friday. Beck isn’t going to throw four interceptions, although that’s going to be in the back of my mind. But I do get worried about Miami as we get into some of these big games down the stretch, whether it’s the ACC Championship Game or in the CFP. Mario Cristobal isn’t a great game manager, and the way Miami went about that last drive against Louisville was like it was trying to tie the game rather than go for the win.
9. The Bear: Texas Tech
Bear’s thoughts: “Now we’re at the point with teams that aren’t guaranteed to make the playoff. We thought last week that Texas Tech was the best team in the Big 12, but it had injuries along the defensive line and at quarterback before making that mad comeback that fell short at Arizona State on Saturday. Texas Tech is still the significant favorite to win the Big 12. If it can get its injury situation squared away, I think the schedule works out well the rest of the way. I don’t think Arizona State will be able to run the table and hold the tiebreak.”
10. Klatt: Ole Miss
The internet was down on my flight during Saturday’s Ole Miss-Georgia game, so I’ve only watched the game on film. But Ole Miss was impressive for the entire game and then, all of a sudden, the moment and environment became too big for Trinidad Chambliss. That’s probably to be expected. He’s played big games, but not against Georgia and in that building.
That’s my fear with Ole Miss. Does it have to win 45-42 when it plays a quality opponent? It might have to. The defense was misaligned several times. It allowed first downs at crucial times.
Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) drops back to pass during the college football game between the LSU Tigers and Ole Miss Rebels. (Photo by Andy Altenburger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
But I like Ole Miss at No. 10, largely because I couldn’t pick the team that plays great defense that isn’t so great on offense.
11. The Bear: Vanderbilt
Bear’s thoughts: “I was thinking OU, but I’m not sure it can make it through this gauntlet with just one more loss. It’s a feel-good story, and Vanderbilt has no chance of winning the national title, but wouldn’t it be great to see Vandy beat Missouri, go to Texas and win, go to Neyland and win and sit there at 11-1 to make the playoff? Diego Pavia is in New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony, too? Why not?
“Clark Lea has done an awesome job. Vandy is so well coached. The offensive line is so underrated. They run the ball so well. They aren’t going to win, but at No. 11, give me Vandy.”
12. Klatt: Texas
I don’t dislike the Vandy pick. They had a chance to beat Alabama. That’s a good football team.
Anyway, I debated between Texas, Oklahoma and — I know this might sound crazy — Michigan, because I saw it go back to its roots on Saturday. But Michigan’s got to beat Ohio State, Oklahoma has that gauntlet and Texas has Georgia on its schedule. So, I’m not sure if any of these three teams are going to make the CFP.
But I’m going to go back to the basics and pick Texas because of its defense. If Arch Manning figures it out at all, Texas has a great roster around him. I don’t love Texas’ chances at Athens, but we’ve talked about how Georgia’s defense isn’t great. Maybe that’s a get-right game for Manning? I can’t see a scenario where Texas doesn’t figure it out at some point. Steve Sarkisian is too good of an offensive coach.
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to “The Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
