Seeing Alabama in a high-profile game is as common as the sun rising in the east.
Seeing Vanderbilt, though? Not so common.
But that’s where we are in the college football Week 6 odds market, as No. 16 Vandy vs. No. 10 Alabama is among the biggest games this week.
“If you would’ve told me two years ago that Vandy-Alabama would be considered a really good, competitive game, I’d have told you that you were crazy,” Caesar Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “But that’s gonna be the game that drives action this week.”
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on that matchup and more, as we dive into college football Week 6 betting nuggets.
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How Dandy Is Vandy?
Vanderbilt is 5-0 straight up (SU) and almost perfect against the spread (ATS) at 4-1. Most impressive was the Commodores’ Week 3 win at South Carolina, a 31-7 blowout as 3-point underdogs.
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And it bears noting that last season, Vandy was a 23-point home underdog to Alabama and posted a shocking 40-35 victory.
The Crimson Tide (3-1 SU and ATS) were already dealt one upset this season, losing 31-17 as two-touchdown favorites at Florida State in Week 1. But Alabama has since won three in a row, including a signature 24-21 victory at Georgia last week.
Alabama certainly has the revenge factor, too, and is at home in a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. But Vanderbilt, though still a sizable underdog, is getting respect this week.
Caesars Sports opened Alabama as a 13.5-point favorite, and within just a few hours Sunday, the line tumbled to -10.5. It then briefly went to ‘Bama -10 on Monday, before resettling in at -10.5.
“It shows that really sharper action is favoring this Vanderbilt team as a live ‘dog,” Feazel said. “But the public is coming in on Alabama and the Over. There’s more Bama money, after a big win against Georgia.”
College Football Rocks on FOX
FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff heads to the Big House in Ann Arbor, where No. 20 Michigan hosts Wisconsin. It’s a big point spread at Caesars, and it’s getting bigger.
The Wolverines (3-1 SU/2-2 ATS) opened as 15.5-point favorites vs. the Badgers (2-2 SU/1-3 ATS). That line quickly advanced to -16.5, and on Tuesday night, Michigan reached -17.
“Early action suggest bettors are on Bryce Underwood. It’s one-way action on Michigan, and I don’t expect that to change,” Feazel said.
On Campus Sharp Side
Last week, college football betting expert Paul Stone was rightly on Notre Dame as a 4.5-point favorite at Arkansas. The Fighting Irish rolled 56-13.
This week, Stone is looking at that aforementioned Vanderbilt vs. Alabama clash.
First off, Stone acknowledged that quarterback Diego Pavia is a beast in the underdog role. At New Mexico State, then last season and into this season at Vanderbilt, Pavia-led teams are a superb 19-5-1 ATS when cast as the underdog.
And 15 of those spread-covers were actually outright wins. As noted above, Pavia’s most notable upset came last year, when Vanderbilt shocked then-No. 1 Alabama 40-35 as a 23-point home underdog in Nashville.
However, despite Pavia’s proficiency in the underdog role, Stone is happy to take Alabama -10.5. In fact, he sees the Crimson Tide prevailing by two touchdowns or more.
“Vanderbilt will get Alabama’s full focus and attention this time around,” Stone said. “Since Alabama lost its season opener at Florida State, first-year starting quarterback Ty Simpson has been hitting on all cylinders. I think Alabama brings its A-game Saturday and wins comfortably.”
Sunshine State Showdown
College football Week 6 odds also feature a key ACC battle, between unbeaten Miami (4-0 SU/3-1 ATS) and Florida State (3-1 SU and ATS).
Both teams already have signature wins, with Miami topping Notre Dame, and Florida State’s aforementioned win over Alabama, both in Week 1. But the Seminoles are coming off a 45-38 upset loss in double overtime at Virginia, where they were 7-point favorites.
As of Wednesday night, Caesars has Miami as a 4.5-point road favorite, which is where the line has been all week.
“This game will decide who’s really going to lead the ACC,” Feazel said. “So far, we’re seeing Miami money come in. It’s a really good, competitive game with two good quarterbacks.”
Miami’s Carson Beck is seen as the better QB, though. He’s currently the +1000 fourth choice in Caesars’ Heisman Trophy odds. Florida State’s Thomas Castellanos is a distant +7500.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
As of Wednesday night, there’s not much to report in the way of major wagers on college football Week 6 odds. But Caesars has taken a couple of mid-five-figure plays:
- $56,086.95 — yeah, that’s an unusual amount — on Clemson -14 vs. North Carolina
- $50,000 on Colorado +13 (-115) vs. TCU
Clemson vs. North Carolina is a battle of disappointing teams.
The Tigers, a trendy preseason pick to win the College Football Playoff, are 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS. The Tar Heels, in Bill Belichick’s first season, are 2-2 SU and ATS, but those two wins are over lightweights Charlotte and Richmond.
In Week 4 at Central Florida, the Tar Heels tumbled 34-9 as 7-point underdogs. And you probably recall that in Week 1, at home, Belichick’s squad got smoked by TCU 48-14 as a 3.5-point underdog.
Both UNC and Clemson were off in Week 5 and surely needed the break to regroup. If the visiting Tigers manage to win by more than 14, then the bettor profits $50,988.14 (total payout $107,075.09).
As for Colorado-TCU, if Coach Prime’s squad avoids getting blown out, then the bettor wins $43,478.26 (total payout $93,478.26).
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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