College football’s Week 7 oddsboard has two Big Ten games that stand out, starting with Saturday’s FOX Big Noon Kickoff, where No. 1 Ohio State travels to No. 17 Illinois.
Then a game with a closer point spread — and a more appealing underdog — follows when No. 7 Indiana meets No. 3 Oregon.
“That’s one of the games that we’re most looking forward to,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “There’s good money and movement toward Indiana.”
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on both those matchups and more, as we dive into college football Week 7 betting nuggets.
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College Football Rocks on FOX
Defending national champion Ohio State is rolling along at 5-0 straight up (SU) and 4-0-1 against the spread (ATS). Illinois (5-1 SU and ATS) has been a little less steady, breaking into the AP Top 10, then getting trucked by Indiana 63-10 in Week 4.
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The Fighting Illini rebounded with a 34-32 upset as 6.5-point home underdogs to USC in Week 5.
Ohio State and Illinois notched easy Week 6 wins, over Minnesota and Purdue, respectively. But Caesars’ risk room is much more sold on the Buckeyes than the Illini.
In Saturday’s noon ET start, Ohio State is a 14-point road favorite, although that is down a point from the -15.5 opener.
“We’re seeing one-sided action on Ohio State so far, and I expect that to continue. Ohio State bettors are turning out, week in and week out,” Feazel said. “Illinois is kind of up and down. The Illini got embarrassed by Indiana, but beat USC.”
Rested and Ready
Indiana (5-0 SU/3-2 ATS) and Oregon (5-0 SU/4-1 ATS) are both coming off byes. However, the Ducks are coming off the more impressive victory.
Oregon was a 4-point underdog at Penn State in Week 5. The Ducks blew a 17-3 fourth-quarter lead, but still went on to win 30-24 in double overtime. Indiana had a tougher time at Iowa, hanging on for a 20-15 victory as a 9.5-point favorite.
Caesars opened Oregon -8.5 (-105) and within a few hours on Sunday was down to -7.5. As of Wednesday night, it was Ducks -7.5 (-105).
“Indiana is getting some respect. But Oregon is a tough place to play, and it’s a big stage for the Hoosiers,” Feazel said. “I think betting will be a little more two-way than we expect. People who like Indiana are gonna take the moneyline, and people who like Oregon will take the spread.”
The Hoosiers are +240 on the moneyline, meaning a $100 bet would profit $240 (total payout $340) if Indiana pulls off the road upset. Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET.
On Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone has hit his last two plays in this space, narrowly getting Alabama -10.5 last week, on a last-minute touchdown in a 30-14 win over Vanderbilt.
In Week 7 odds, he’s intrigued by the Indiana-Oregon showdown. Stone is happy to lay the 7.5 with Oregon and, in fact, thinks the Ducks will win by double digits.
“In his first 18 games at Indiana, coach Curt Cignetti has been really good against the lower- and mid-level teams,” Stone said. “But he has yet to get it done when stepping up in class to face one of the sport’s true heavyweights.”
Indiana was cast as the betting underdog twice last season, failing to cover on both occasions, against Ohio State and Notre Dame.
“It’s a small sample size, but I’ll expect more of the same until I see something different from Indiana,” Stone said. “Autzen Stadium is going to be rocking Saturday. I was also really impressed with Oregon quarterback Dante Moore in the victory at Penn State. I think Oregon wins by 10 or more points.”
Tide and Tigers
No. 8 Alabama (4-1 SU and ATS) travels to No. 14 Missouri (5-0 SU/3-2 ATS) in a pivotal SEC clash. The Crimson Tide opened as 4-point favorites at Caesars, and the line was bet down to ‘Bama -3 early in the week.
“Alabama is coming off the Vandy win, in what was a revenge situation, and the Tide got the backdoor cover, too,” Feazel said.
Indeed, as alluded to above, leading 23-14 in the waning seconds, Alabama got an otherwise meaningless touchdown vs. Vanderbilt to win 30-14 and cover the spread. That home victory was on the heels of a big road win over Georgia.
“This could be a letdown spot for Alabama,” Feazel said, though he acknowledged bettors don’t see it that way yet. “We do not need Alabama. It’s one-sided action on Alabama and the Over.”
That said, the total is at 51.5, actually down from the 52.5 opener for Saturday’s noon ET kick.
Red River Rivalry
Staying in the SEC, No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0 SU/3-2 ATS) meets no-longer-ranked Texas (3-2 SU/1-4 ATS) in a neutral-site game, at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The Longhorns are coming off a 29-21 loss as 4.5-point favorites at Florida.
Still, with Sooners QB John Mateer’s status uncertain early this week, Caesars opened Texas as a 4.5-point favorite. By Tuesday, however, the line was down to Texas -1, where the ‘Horns remained Wednesday night.
That’s in part due to Mateer potentially returning, though he’s still considered questionable as he recovers from a Sept. 24 hand surgery.
“We’ve seen this line go just one way, toward Oklahoma,” Feazel said. “It’s mostly Oklahoma action so far, and that’s connected to what we saw last week in Texas’ loss to Florida.
“People are gonna remember what they saw last, and it wasn’t a good Texas team.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Caesars has taken a mid-five-figure play on one of this week’s marquee matchups:
- $44,500 Oregon moneyline -305 vs. Indiana
It’s the opposite of those lottery-ticket parlays that we now see every week, where bettors wager a little to win a lot. This customer is betting a lot to win significantly less, on the hope that solid favorite Oregon just wins the game, regardless of final margin.
Provided the Ducks do so, the bettor profits $14,590.16 (total payout $59,090.16). That’s almost 33% ROI, which any of us would take on our 401k.
But there’s no guarantee. Just ask Penn State, which was a much larger favorite at UCLA last week — 24.5 points — and lost outright 42-37.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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