The American League and National League Championship Series are set, and with just one round left until the World Series, the chase for the title is still wide open with no clear favorite.
Both series will feature some of the heaviest hitters in Major League Baseball, but which one has had the best postseason so far? And who’s under the most pressure to perform this round? And, most of all, who will be playing in the World Series?
FOX Sports’ Rowan Kanver and Deesha Thosar answered that and more in our LCS preview roundtable:
1. We had not one, but TWO Division Series that ended in extra innings this past week. Between the Dodgers and Mariners, which team do you think should be more concerned about how close they were to elimination and why?
Thosar: The Mariners. Without Playoff Randy, the complexion of Seattle’s lineup looks totally different, and way less threatening. Arozarena is hitting just .174 (4-for-23) with eight strikeouts, one walk, one RBI and one double in his five postseason games as the Mariners leadoff man this year. But he entered October with excellent overall numbers in the playoffs, hitting .336 with a 1.104 OPS, 13 walks, 11 home runs, and 17 RBI in 33 career postseason games.
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Quietly, Arozarena is the key to the Mariners being a more formidable offensive force. It would also help if Cal Raleigh could slug more than one home run in their next series against the Blue Jays, and the Mariners have to hope his incredible 60-homer season while catching 159 regular season games hasn’t caught up to him just yet. Otherwise, that’s a major concern for Seattle’s championship goals.
(Photo by Jane Gershovich/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Kavner: The Mariners. The Dodgers’ series win was more impressive, besting a Phillies team that many (including myself) thought was a legitimate championship contender in just four games. There’s an argument to make that might be the toughest team they’ll see the rest of the way. The Mariners, meanwhile, needed 15 innings in a winner-take-all Game 5 to take down a Tigers team that had lost 22 of its last 31 games entering the postseason. It’s only getting harder for Seattle from here, and the Mariners’ offense will need more consistency to move forward through October. I expect we’ll see that, though.
2. Is there a single person under more pressure to perform in the next round than Shohei Ohtani?
Thosar: No. Ohtani has to start coming through for the Dodgers at the plate — despite how impressive it was that he was able to separate his results in the box from his performance on the mound in Game 1 of the NLDS. The difference in Los Angeles’ lone loss against the Phillies in Game 3 was that the heart of the Phillies order came alive, while the heart of the Dodgers order didn’t.
The secret is out: Ohtani is shut down against strong left-handed pitching. The Brewers, at least, don’t have as many hard-throwing southpaws as Philly deployed. Perhaps that will finally get him going. Like Aaron Judge and the Yankees in last year’s Fall Classic, it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers winning another World Series without Ohtani waking up at the plate.
(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Kavner: Nope. The Mariners are in the LCS for the first time in 24 years, the Blue Jays are there for the first time in nine years, and the Brewers are there for the first time in seven years. All that to say, this year is already a massive success for all three of those franchises. None of their players is under more pressure than Ohtani.
For the Dodgers, nothing short of a championship will suffice. And it’s hard to imagine that happening if Ohtani goes 1-for-18 with nine strikeouts in another series. Often, the at-bats weren’t competitive. He chased outside the zone and then watched strike three down the middle. But the matchups going forward are more conducive than they were against the Phillies’ left-handed stud rotation, and with him, things can click in an instant with one big swing. He didn’t exactly star at the plate in last year’s postseason, either (.230/.373/.393), so if this continues in an LCS exit, expect the spotlight to fall on him.
3. Which player can confidently say they’re the best player in the Championship Series based on how their postseason has gone so far?
Thosar: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He was so electric against the Yankees in the ALDS – the most locked in I’ve ever seen him in a series — that it was a reminder how far his MVP-caliber production can take the Blue Jays this October. Never mind his awesome belly-flop slides into home plate, Guerrero has three multi-hit performances in four games this postseason. He enters the ALCS hitting .529, which is second only to his teammate, Ernie Clement, across all batters in the playoffs so far this year.
Now, Guerrero has to prove he can perform at the same clip when his hated Yankees aren’t in the opposing dugout. But he should be feeling plenty confident heading into the ALCS.
Kavner: The best player left is still undoubtedly Ohtani, despite his struggles this October. But if we’re strictly going off how they’ve performed so far, it’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It’s been an unbelievable playoffs for the Blue Jays star, who is earning that massive $500 million extension by leading all postseason players in slugging and OPS while going 9-for-17 with three home runs.
There have been a plethora of supporting players who turned the Blue Jays into division champions, but Guerrero is the star that makes them championship contenders. Now, the question is if he can keep it going when he doesn’t have the motivation of facing the Yankees.
‘Daaa Yankees Lose’ 😂 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. & Big Papi TROLL New York after ALDS elimination
4. Of the remaining teams, which one do you think has the best shot of winning the World Series based on their season to date and not what their ceiling could be? Which team are you least confident in?
Thosar: I’m sticking with the Blue Jays here. They looked terrific and sure-footed against New York all season before finally eliminating them from the playoffs this past week. Afterwards, Yankees players were raving about Toronto’s contract-driven offense, sneakily pacing the league in taking extra bases, on top of sporting the lowest strikeout rate in the majors this season. They’re strutting into the ALCS with three of the top four hitters so far this October (Clement, Guerrero, and Daulton Varsho).
I’m least confident in the Dodgers, mostly because of their bullpen. The emergence of Roki Sasaki as their closer helps, but the bridge to the ninth inning has been ugly. Nearly every Dodgers reliever used this playoffs has had a meltdown inning, which is concerning.
(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Kavner: The Mariners entered the postseason winning 17 of their last 21 games (and that includes getting swept at home to end the season after they’d wrapped up the division and had nothing left to play for). That stretch demonstrated the potential that was finally realized. I think they have the most complete team left in the field, so I’ll take them. But it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Blue Jays, who’ve been obliterating the baseball this October, making that series go the distance.
I’m least confident in the Brewers, which maybe isn’t fair considering they’re the top seed and have been the best team in baseball basically all year, but I have a hard time seeing them getting through both the Dodgers (though it’s worth pointing out they did sweep that season series) and the winner of the Mariners/Blue Jays with their lack of both star power and actual power. The pitching is so good this time of year that it’s hard to string hits together the way that offense did all year, and I see them having a tough time against the Dodgers’ starters.
4.5. Make your predictions for the AL and NL Champions Series and explain your choices.
Thosar: In the AL, I’m picking the Blue Jays over the Mariners. As previously mentioned, I think their offense is overpowering — and Seattle should still be feeling the fatiguing impact of its emotional 15-inning win when it takes on Toronto in Game 1 of the ALCS, maybe even in Game 2. In the NL, despite those bullpen concerns, I’m going with the Dodgers because of their overall elite talent, plus, they have the edge in starting pitching. That being said, the Brewers went 6-0 against L.A. in the regular season. I think this series has the most potential to go the distance.
Kavner: Mariners and Dodgers. The Mariners might be exhausted after the ALDS, and that Game 5 certainly doesn’t help as they set out their rotation, but I think Seattle has the more complete team, and I like their pitching more in a seven-game series. The Dodgers’ bullpen gives me real concerns without off days to rest Roki Sasaki, who’s amazingly now basically the only reliever Dave Roberts can trust, but the Brewers don’t have the home run threats that the Phillies did. I see Ohtani and Freddie Freeman breaking out now that they don’t have to face Cristopher Sánchez, Jesus Luzardo and Ranger Suarez and a Dodgers win. It wouldn’t surprise me if either series went seven, though. This should be fun.
Deesha Thosar covers Major League Baseball as a reporter and columnist for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
