A lot of things went right for the public betting masses in NFL Week 7 odds.
Perhaps most of all, the Denver Broncos transferred an embarrassing blowout loss into an unfathomable victory over the New York Giants.
“That was good for the patrons. Not so good for us,” Chris Andrews said from his perch as sportsbook director at the South Point in Las Vegas.
But Andrews easily could’ve been speaking for bookmakers nationwide.
More on the weekend that was, as oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap NFL and college football betting.
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Mile High Miracle
The Broncos were by no means a lock at home on Sunday. We’ve all seen enough NFL to know that no team is a lock. But Denver (-8) was the second-largest favorite on the Week 7 oddsboard, behind only double-digit favorite Kansas City.
Yet Denver didn’t score a point through three quarters, trailing New York 19-0. It didn’t get much better when the Giants scored a touchdown with 10:14 remaining to go up 26-8.
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But somehow, the Broncos scored the next 22 points in a span of 8:23, taking a 30-26 lead with 1:51 remaining.
Still, there was more wildness to come.
Jaxson Dart and the Giants, aided by a couple huge penalties, regained the lead 32-30 on a touchdown with 37 seconds remaining. But Jude McAtamney then missed his second extra point of the game.
Bo Nix and Denver made New York pay, driving to set up a Will Lutz 39-yard field goal to give the Broncos a 33-32 win. No, Denver didn’t cover. But the Broncos salvaged countless moneyline parlays.
“We would have done a lot better if the Giants had won,” said John Murray, vice president of The SuperBook.
Added Andrews: “Between the Giants and Cardinals, if one of them would’ve won outright, it would’ve saved us on moneyline parlays and teasers. That’s what got us.
“It looked like we’d win the Giants and Cardinals outright, and we won neither.”
The Cardinals led the Packers 23-20 well into the fourth quarter, but lost 27-23 on a Packers touchdown with 1:50 remaining. Arizona’s final drive stalled at the Green Bay 27-yard line.
Playing Favorites
It wasn’t just Denver’s improbable comeback that boosted Sunday NFL bettors. To get those moneyline parlays to the finish line, plenty more favorites had to get the job done.
And they did, with favorites winning nine of 12 games. Key favorites won all over the map, primarily Kansas City, Philadelphia, New England and Chicago — all in the early window on Sunday. And though Carolina closed as a short road underdog vs. the New York Jets, the public was not betting on the Jets.
Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel noted that the NFL’s five worst teams — the Raiders, Dolphins, Titans, Jets and Saints — all played in the early window and went 0-5 straight up and against the spread.
“With the worst five teams in the league losing [by] a combined 132-39, the [day] started perfectly for customers,” Feazel said. “Opposing the bad teams in recent years has proven to be a tried and trusted formula.
“The perfect storm of all five playing in the [early] slate was beneficial to the customers,” Feazel said.
That success continued in Sunday’s late window, not just with the Broncos, but the Cowboys and Packers.
“In the afternoon, when we thought we had a chance, the Giants and Cardinals losing their games benefited the bettors as well,” Feazel said.
BetMGM senior trader Tristan Davis put it succinctly: “Bettors had their best day of the season, by far.”
BetMGM even got burned by the one underdog to win in Sunday’s late window. The Indianapolis Colts were 2.5-point road ‘dogs to the L.A. Chargers and rolled to a 38-24 victory.
But shortly before kickoff, BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said “a couple of significant bets on Colts +2.5” came in. Though Magee couldn’t disclose the amounts, he said the wagers flipped BetMGM’s need from the Colts to the Chargers.
On Campus
The bookmakers vs. bettors battle in college football Week 8 odds fell more so in favor of the sportsbooks. However, mileage varied a bit from operator to operator.
The SuperBook had a banner Saturday. That was primarily due to Georgia’s 43-35 victory as a 7.5-point home favorite vs. Ole Miss, as the Rebels were trendy underdogs. And then Arizona State’s 26-22 upset of Texas Tech, an 8-point road favorite.
“It was our best college football Saturday of the season,” Murray said.
BetMGM posted a winning day, though there was some give-and-take.
“It was a pretty ho-hum day all around,” Magee said. “Notre Dame covering -9.5 and staying under the total was big, considering Alabama covered.”
The Fighting Irish narrowly covered in their 34-24 home win vs. USC, with the Under hitting on a total of 60.5. Alabama, a 10.5-point home favorite vs. Tennessee, notched a 37-20 victory.
“Oklahoma covering -5.5 at South Carolina was our best result of the day. We took a couple big bets on South Carolina +5.5,” Magee said of the Sooners’ 26-7 rout. “And Florida State is just the gift that keeps on giving for sportsbooks. Another loss as a double-digit favorite, which killed a lot parlays going deep into the night.”
Indeed, the Seminoles’ game at Stanford was the last one of the day, kicking off at 10:30 p.m. ET/7:30 p.m. PT. Florida State was a healthy 17.5-point favorite and got humbled outright, losing 20-13.
It was the ‘Noles fourth consecutive loss, after a 3-0 start that included a big win over Alabama.
At South Point, Andrews termed it a “good, not great day, no complaints.”
That said, one finish drew his ire a bit. Indiana closed as a 26-point home favorite vs. Michigan State and led 38-10. Then the Spartans inexplicably decided to kick a 34-yard field goal with 33 seconds left.
The kick was good, so Sparty covered while the Hoosiers won 38-13.
“We needed the favorite in that game. I can’t believe they kicked a field goal with 33 seconds left, just to cut it to 25,” Andrews said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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