Week after week, bookmakers just want to see a couple of key NFL underdogs — better still, big underdogs — come up with an outright upset.
That finally happened in the NFL Week 5 odds market. The Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills — all significant favorites — came up short for the public betting masses.
“For a year, we’ve been needing some big underdogs to win outright. And we got three of them this week,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said.
More on the weekend that was, as oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap NFL and college football betting.
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Maye Day
The Bills were consensus 7.5-point favorites Sunday night at home against the New England Patriots. But the Bills only led for about three minutes midway through the third quarter, 10-6, after a Curtis Samuel touchdown catch.
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The next two scores came from New England, with the second an impressive 90-yard drive led by QB Drake Maye. That possession was culminated by a 7-yard Rhamondre Stevenson touchdown run, giving the Pats a 20-10 lead early in the fourth quarter.
Buffalo fought back with touchdown and field-goal drives, tying it at 20 with 2:17 remaining. But Maye guided the Pats into position for a field goal, and Andy Borregales drilled it from 52 yards with 15 seconds left, securing the 23-20 upset.
“That locked in a winning day for us,” said Casey Degnon, risk manager at The SuperBook. “Patriots outright and the Under was our best scenario.”
Ah, yes, the other result bookmakers always welcome, particularly in standalone prime-time matchups: low-scoring games. The Patriots-Bills total was 49.5, so all the public Over bettors went begging on that outcome, as well.
Prior to kickoff, BetMGM national trading manager Christian Cipollini said: “A Patriots’ outright win would be best.”
Not that Cipollini expected to get it. But it happened. Pregame, BetMGM data analyst John Ewing posted on X that in moneyline wagering, accounting for all bet types (straight bets and parlays), 90% of bets were on the Bills to just win.
Cardinals Sin
While New England’s upset probably helped oddsmakers the most, the Cardinals certainly did their part, with an epic implosion.
Arizona closed as a 7.5-point home favorite against the winless Tennessee Titans. Early in the fourth quarter, it seemed a Cardinals win was a lead-pipe cinch.
With the Cards up 21-6, running back Emari Demercado busted off an apparent 72-yard touchdown run that should’ve put Arizona up 28-6 with 12:56 remaining.
But Demercado celebrated a split second too early, letting go of the ball just before crossing the goal line. The ball rolled out of bounds in the end zone for a touchback.
Tennessee then came back with the game’s final 16 points, winning 22-21 on a final-second field goal.
“That was an insane comeback. It was a good result for the book. We needed the Titans to cover, and outright was just icing on the cake,” Degnon said.
San Francisco Treat
Bookmakers got Week 5 off to a great start on Thursday night. The San Francisco 49ers — without QB Brock Purdy — sprung a 26-23 overtime upset of the Los Angeles Rams.
L.A. was an 8-point home favorite and a popular play on the point spread. More so, the Rams surely led off countless moneyline parlays, in which you only need each team to win the game, regardless of final margin.
So those moneyline parlays went up in smoke before the weekend even began. No one anticipated the undermanned 49ers could actually beat the Rams.
But Mac Jones & Co. got it done, in perhaps a harbinger for Sunday’s two big upsets.
Public Rises Early
Sunday actually started well for the public betting masses, who were more so on the Minnesota Vikings in a London game against the Cleveland Browns.
Minnesota closed as a 3.5-point favorite, then won and covered in sweat-breaking fashion. Down 17-14, the Vikes — behind backup QB Carson Wentz — went on a 10-play, 80-yard drive, capped by a Wentz-to-Jordan Addison 12-yard touchdown pass with 25 seconds left.
So Minnesota won 21-17, barely covering the number.
“The early start in London did not deter customers, who started the day great with the Vikings’ comeback to cover the -3.5 spread,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Feazel went on to add that most of Sunday’s early slate of games fell in favor of bettors. Specifically, the Vikings’ cover, the popular underdog Dallas Cowboys beating the New York Jets 37-22, and the Indianapolis Colts rolling to a 40-6 victory as 7-point home favorites vs. the Las Vegas Raiders.
“The [early] games overall were a big win for the customers,” Feazel said.
However, as noted above, Tennessee and New England massively upset the apple cart, in the late window and on Sunday night, respectively.
On Campus
There were a few notable games in the college football Week 6 odds market. No. 16 Vanderbilt vs. No. 10 Alabama was among the best, and it worked out well for bettors — barely.
The Crimson Tide were 12.5-point home favorites, yet at no point were they covering, through most of four quarters. In fact, the Commodores led twice in the first half, 7-0 and 14-7, and the game was tied at 14 at halftime.
Alabama got three second-half field goals, the last of which gave the Tide a 23-14 lead with 4:08 remaining.
On the subsequent drive, Vandy turned it over on downs at its 28-yard line, with just 1:18 remaining. All Alabama had to do to run out the clock was get a first down.
On fourth-and-2 from the 20, Jam Miller got those two yards, and at any point afterward he could have taken a knee and ended the game. Instead, he ran it in for a touchdown.
And Alabama covered the 12.5 with a 30-14 win.
“We needed Vandy, so that hurt,” Andrews said, echoing the sentiment of oddsmakers across the nation.
Saturday brought a couple surprises as well, one huge and one modest. The modest one: Florida, a 4.5-point home underdog, might’ve just ruined Texas’ season with a 29-21 victory.
But the huge one was much more interesting: Penn State vs. UCLA.
The Bruins were 24.5-point home underdogs. On the moneyline, UCLA was +1400 to pull the outright upset, meaning a $100 bet would win $1,400, in the unlikely event of the winless Bruins beating the title-contending Nittany Lions.
But stunningly, UCLA built a 27-7 halftime lead, and Penn State never got closer than five points from there, as the Bruins pulled off the 42-37 shocker.
Here’s hoping you made that bet. Pretty nice ROI if you did.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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