Normally, when a lot of NFL favorites win on Sunday, bookmakers get taken to the cleaners.
Yet on Sunday, when favorites won 11 of 12 games, that wasn’t the case.
It’s not that sportsbooks won the battle of NFL Week 6 odds, but they didn’t lose nearly as much as normal under such circumstances.
“It’s nice to have almost all the favorites win and us not get killed,” said Casey Degnon, risk manager at The SuperBook. “It was a small losing day for the book, overall.”
More on the weekend that was, as oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap NFL and college football betting.
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Sunday Night Showdown
The NFL saved the best for last on Sunday, with the Detroit Lions visiting the Kansas City Chiefs in prime time. Detroit entered the game at 4-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), while K.C. was 2-3 SU and ATS, trying to dodge a 2-4 start.
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Further, Detroit has been a spread-covering machine since the middle of the 2022-23 season, going 39-13-1 ATS and an even better 41-12 SU.
But the Chiefs were up to the chore, posting a 30-17 victory as 2.5-point home favorites. That was a mixed-bag result for The SuperBook.
“The Chiefs covering and the Under was a very small loser for us,” Degnon said, alluding to the two teams falling well short of the 51.5 total. “But the Chiefs, by double digits, at least killed the Lions teasers for us.”
For those unfamiliar, teasers are somewhat like parlays, except the bettor either subtracts points from the favorite’s point spread or adds points to an underdog’s point spread.
Six-point teasers are typical, and any that were live to the Lions on Sunday night would’ve had Detroit +8.5, rather than +2.5. So K.C. winning by more than 8.5 fell in The SuperBook’s favor.
Nationally, BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini was rooting for a much closer result.
“We’re hoping for a Chiefs win by one or two,” Cipollini said pregame, wanting a K.C. win but a Detroit cover.
That’s because most BetMGM customers were either wagering on Chiefs -2.5 or Lions moneyline. A 1- or 2-point K.C. win would’ve meant the sportsbook scooped up all the Chiefs spread bets plus all the Lions moneyline wagers.
London Calling
Bookmakers had no complaints about Sunday’s opening game, the Denver Broncos vs. the New York Jets in London. The Broncos were 7-point favorites and did just about everything they could to lose to the winless Jets.
Denver escaped with a very ugly 13-11 victory. So the underdog covered and the Under easily hit on a total of 43.5. The cliché states that parlays are a bookmaker’s best friend. Not far behind is the ‘dog and Under.
“This started the day with a win for the book, given that it was the Jets hanging on [to cover] in a low-scoring game,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
But much like at The SuperBook, Caesars had a back-and-forth duel with bettors for the rest of the day, winning some and losing some. The day went a little better for South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews.
“We started off good with the Broncos-Jets. The Cardinals covering against the Colts was good, and the Rams covering was good. Everybody bet on the Ravens late,” Andrews said of L.A.’s 17-3 victory as 7-point road favorites.
“But everybody bet Carolina over the Cowboys, and they took the points with the Dolphins. So those weren’t good.”
The Panthers were 3-point home underdogs and beat Dallas 30-27. Miami rallied from a 26-13 deficit to take a 27-26 lead in the final minute against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Dolphins proceeded to lose 29-27 on a final-second field goal but covered as 3.5-point home underdogs.
Big-Game Bucs
If you’d asked six weeks ago which team would have the NFL’s best record by mid-October, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wouldn’t have been your first guess.
But here, Tampa is at 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS, tied with another surprise team in the Colts, also 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. Semi-on topic: The Buffalo Bills (4-1 SU/2-3 ATS) can get to 5-1 SU on Monday night in Atlanta.
Baker Mayfield & Co. hosted the San Francisco 49ers in one of the better Sunday matchups. The Bucs were 3.5-point home favorites and won 30-19. Sharp bettors don’t always get it right, but they did in this case, betting on Tampa at -2.5 and -3 earlier in the week.
“A lot of sharp guys [were] on Tampa,” SuperBook vice president John Murray said.
Too Much To Swallow
Much as the public likes to bet on favorites, there is a breaking point. The Green Bay Packers laying 14 points, even on their home field, was just too much to ask.
But a Cincinnati Bengals team getting those 14 points? Perhaps revitalized a bit after acquiring Joe Flacco to take over as quarterback? Sure, why not.
BetMGM and The SuperBook both reported stronger-than-expected action on Bengals +14.
“We have seen that. It’s surprising to me,” Murray said. “But the public doesn’t want to lay 14 points.”
And the public was right to instead take 14 points. Green Bay was never covering, though it did lead 24-10 midway through the fourth quarter. But that’s a push.
Flacco led the Bengals to a touchdown with 4:11 remaining to make it 24-18, perhaps giving the Packers a little concern. Green Bay ultimately won 27-18, and the Bengals covered the spread.
On Campus
When underdogs post outright wins in high-profile games, oddsmakers are generally happy. Such was the case with Indiana’s 30-20 road upset of Oregon on Saturday.
“It was a great week for the book. Indiana beating Oregon outright was one of our best results of the year,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said.
Sharp bettors were on the seventh-ranked Hoosiers, who opened as high as 9.5-point underdogs but closed +7. The public betting masses were on the No. 3 Ducks, including in moneyline parlays.
So Indiana outright broke up a boatload of said parlay tickets.
A couple more upsets helped fuel a winning Saturday for BetMGM.
“Pitt outright over Florida State and UCLA beating Michigan State were other great games,” Magee said.
The Seminoles were 10.5-point home favorites but tumbled to the Panthers 34-31. The Bruins were 7-point road underdogs and blew out the Spartans 38-13.
It was the second straight upset for UCLA, which in Week 6 was a massive 24.5-point home underdog and shocked Penn State 42-37.
Those upsets all took place in the noon ET or 3:30 p.m. ET window of games. So, too, did Penn State’s second straight stunning setback, a 22-21 home loss as 21-point favorites vs. Northwestern.
“A lot of parlays died before the night slate even got going,” Magee said.
And on Sunday, one job was lost, as well.
Penn State fired coach James Franklin, following two embarrassing losses as part of a three-game skid overall. FWIW: The Nittany Lions (3-3 SU) are the only college team that’s winless against the spread this season, at 0-6.
Alabama–Missouri was another popular game, with the Crimson Tide closing as 3.5-point road favorites. During the week, the point spread toggled between Bama -3.5/-3. When that happens, it’s often bad for the bookmakers when the favorite wins by exactly 3, which Alabama did, 27-24.
But BetMGM again came out in front.
“Alabama landing on 3 ended up OK for us. There was a lot of interest in ‘Bama -3.5,” Magee said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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