NFL Week 8 odds saw a couple of alarming upsets.
The Dolphins were touchdown underdogs and flattened the Falcons. The previously winless Jets overcame a 14-point, fourth-quarter deficit to shock the Bengals.
That would normally be a bookmaker’s delight, wiping out moneyline parlays. And indeed, that happened, to some degree. But favorites dominated the rest of Sunday, enough to make it a toss-up between bettors and sportsbooks.
“Let’s call it a break-even day. Plenty of favorites won, although the Falcons did us a real favor getting beat. With the results that were thrown at us, we will sign for it,” BetMGM senior trader Tristan Davis said.
More on the weekend that was, as oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap NFL and college football betting.
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Patriot Games
The Patriots won just four games last season. And that was after winning just four games in the 2023-24 campaign. Nobody was betting on the Pats during that stretch.
That’s not the case anymore, with New England 6-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this season. The Patriots were among the favorites drawing plenty of public action in NFL Week 8 odds.
Drake Maye & Co. delivered, easily covering the 7-point spread by rolling over Cleveland 32-13. New England has quickly become a pain point for bookmakers this season.
“The Patriots keep burying us. They keep covering big spreads against really bad teams, and the public is smartly cashing in on them,” said John Murray, vice president of The SuperBook in Las Vegas. “The public is doing that with the Bills, Colts and Bucs, as well.
“Too many favorites to have a really good day. The Dolphins and Jets saved it. The Dolphins winning was a great result for us.”
Added BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini: “The Falcons losing was the best outcome of the day for the book.”
Miami was a 7-point road underdog and blasted Atlanta 34-10. New York, a 5.5-point underdog at Cincinnati, was down 38-24 with 10:21 remaining in the fourth quarter and made a stunning comeback to win 39-38.
Favorite Flavor
Favorites went 9-2 SU and ATS on Sunday, and the Chargers — 3-point Thursday night favorites vs. the Vikings — kicked off Week 8 with a 37-10 blowout.
As Murray noted above, the Bills, Colts and Bucs are go-to teams for bettors, too, and all three rolled Sunday:
- Buffalo (-7) routed Carolina 40-9
- Indianapolis (-14.5) thumped Tennessee 38-14.
- Tampa Bay, a much more modest 3.5-point favorite at New Orleans, coasted 23-3.
The Colts are now 7-1 SU, the best record in the league, and are 6-2 ATS. Indy and Tampa played in Sunday’s limited three-game late window, in which all three favorites won big. The Broncos (-3.5) ripped the Cowboys 44-24.
“We lost every late game,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said ahead of the Sunday night Packers–Steelers meeting.
That was yet another contest that went to the favorite, with Green Bay (-2.5) turning it on in the second half to win 35-25.
Andrews’ shop didn’t have too much of a need on either team, with good two-way action. But bettors hammered the Over, and the Pack and Steelers easily surpassed the total of 46.5.
Speaking of Overs, the public loves those, too, and feasted on them so far in Week 8. The Over is 9-1-2 heading to the Commanders–Chiefs game on Monday night.
On Campus
BetMGM was on the precipice of a massive Saturday in college football Week 9 odds. South Carolina, a 12.5-point home underdog to No. 4 Alabama, shockingly held a 22-14 lead with 10 minutes remaining.
The Crimson Tide were practically considered a free Bingo space on everybody’s moneyline parlay tickets. An Alabama outright loss would’ve blown up all those bets.
“That would’ve killed a ton of parlays before we even got to the evening slate. It would’ve set up a huge day for the book,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said.
Alas, the public betting masses again got what they needed. Alabama tied it at 22 on a touchdown and 2-point conversion with 2:16 left.
Two plays later. Gamecocks QB LaNorris Sellers fumbled, giving Bama the ball at the South Carolina 38-yard line. Five plays later, Germie Bernard ripped off a 25-yard TD run, and the Crimson Tide won 29-22.
Several other popular teams got there Saturday, as well. Andrews pointed specifically to No. 2 Indiana, No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 10 Vanderbilt, No. 11 BYU and especially No. 22 Texas.
Mississippi State led 38-21 with 12:29 left in the fourth quarter and seemingly had the Longhorns dead to rights. When the dust settled, though, Texas had a 45-38 overtime victory.
“That was brutal for us,” Andrews said. “Indiana hurt us too. We beat the sharp guys, but the public did really good.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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