A week ago, when sportsbooks put out look-ahead lines for NFL Week 5 odds, the Baltimore Ravens were 9.5-point home favorites vs. the Houston Texans.
Then Sunday, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson suffered a hamstring injury in a 37-20 loss at Kansas City. Jackson is doubtful to play this week, and Baltimore is banged up elsewhere, as well.
Correspondingly, the line has significantly shifted. Perhaps too much.
“It’s a very bizarre game. This game last week was Ravens -9.5. Now it’s Texans -1.5,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said Wednesday afternoon. “To me, Lamar Jackson is worth 6.5 points. This line going through zero to make the Texans a favorite is baffling to me.”
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Texans-Ravens and other intriguing games, as we dive into NFL Week 5 betting nuggets.
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Over-Correction?
On Monday, in the wake of Jackson’s injury, Caesars Sports reopened the Texans-Ravens spread at Baltimore -4.5. Within an hour, that number was down to -3.5.
Compared with the look-ahead line, that was probably just about right, with Jackson worth 6.5 points to the spread.
But Tuesday brought a bunch more movement.
Baltimore has a slew of defensive players questionable for Sunday, and Pro Bowl defensive lineman Nnamdi Madubuike is done for the season with a neck injury.
On offense, left tackle Ronnie Stanley is also questionable.
Caesars slid the Ravens to -2.5/-2/-1.5, then jumped the Texans to 1.5-point favorites and actually got to Texans -2.5 briefly. As of Wednesday afternoon, it’s Houston -1.5 again.
“We’re only seeing Texans money so far this week,” Feazel said, while noting the public betting masses might not get as involved with this matchup. “I think there will be limited action, with bettors not knowing how to play this game.”
NFL Rocks On FOX
America’s Game of the Week on FOX pits the Washington Commanders vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, in a 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff. It’s a battle of two playoff teams from last season.
The Chargers are 3-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), coming off an upset road loss to rookie QB Jaxson Dart and the New York Giants. The Commanders (2-2 SU and ATS) look as if they’ll get Jayden Daniels back under center, after he missed two games with a knee issue.
Caesars opened the Chargers as 3-point home favorites, and as of Wednesday afternoon, it’s Chargers -2.5 (-120).
“If Daniels is definitely in, we’ll see line movement toward the Commanders,” Feazel said. “Despite the Chargers’ weird game in New York, we’re still seeing Chargers action this week.”
Thursday Theater
The first game on the NFL Week 5 odds board is seeing noteworthy line movement, thanks again to injuries. Caesars opened the Los Angeles Rams as 3.5-point home favorites vs. the San Francisco 49ers, and midweek, L.A. is all the way out to -7 (-105).
That’s largely due to the expectation of 49ers QB Brock Purdy (toe) not playing. San Fran is beat up elsewhere, too, most notably at wideout, with Jauan Jennings (ankle/ribs) and Ricky Pearsall (knee) questionable.
“So it’s not only Purdy. The 49ers are hurting injury-wise. And the Rams are playing really good football. A lot of early money is coming in on the favorite,” Feazel said.
Strong Schedule
In FOX Sports’ preseason strength-of-schedule report, the Philadelphia Eagles came in at No. 4. Perhaps that number would’ve been even higher if it was just based on the first five weeks.
For the fourth week in a row, Philly is facing a playoff team from last season, this time hosting the Denver Broncos. But it’s worked out fine so far for the Eagles, one of only two unbeaten teams left, at 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS.
Denver (2-2 SU and ATS) took two losses on final-seconds field goals, then rebounded at home in Week 4, drilling Cincinnati 28-3 on Monday night. But that means the Broncos have a short week and long road trip against the defending Super Bowl champions.
“Sharp bettors are still believing in that Broncos side. Almost every week, we’ve seen Broncos sharp money,” Feazel said.
With that, the Eagles have dropped from 5.5-point favorites to -3.5 by midweek, with stops at -5/-4.5/-4 along the way. But Philly has gotten and will likely continue getting support from the masses.
“We’ve seen public Eagles money,” Feazel said.
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is getting involved with another high-profile game in NFL Week 5 odds: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. the Seattle Seahawks.
Both teams are 3-1 SU, with the Seahawks also 3-1 ATS and the Bucs 2-2 ATS.
Seattle is on the rise at Caesars Sports, opening at -2.5, quickly getting to -3 and sitting at -3.5 (-105) Wednesday afternoon. McKay got in on the Seahawks at -3 (-120).
“There are travel and injury troubles for the Buccaneers,” McKay said. “Seattle also has more rest, and the Seahawks’ defense should have success against Tampa Bay’s beat-up interior offensive line.
“Plus, Sam Darnold has looked good so far in Seattle’s offense.”
Tampa is indeed banged up. Wide receiver Mike Evans (hamstring) is out for a second straight week, and running back Bucky Irving (foot/ankle) is questionable. The Bucs are down two starters on the offensive line, too, with right guard Cody Mauch (knee) out for the season and right tackle Luke Goedeke (foot) out a few games.
As for rest goes, Seattle played in the Week 4 Thursday night game, plus Tampa has to make the long road trip for a 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff.
Monday Night Money
Wrapping up Week 5: the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars.
At 2-2 SU and ATS, the Chiefs aren’t quite where many expected them to be at this point. Ditto for the Jags, but in a more positive way, with Jacksonville out to a 3-1 SU and ATS start that included an upset win at San Fran last week.
But midweek, bettors are leaning into the road favorite at Caesars Sports.
“It’s one-sided with the Chiefs, and we’ve moved from -3 to -3.5,” Feazel said. “I think we’ll continue to see more Chiefs action. Bettors are back on Kansas City.”
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
NFL Week 5 odds haven’t seen much in the way of major wagers at midweek. But Caesars revealed one notable early play:
- $50,000 Colts -6.5 (-115) vs. Raiders. If Indy covers at home on Sunday, then the bettor profits $43,478.26.
Hopping in the not-so-wayback machine, the Jets–Dolphins Monday night game drew a massive wager at Borgata Sports, a BetMGM property in Atlantic City: $1.3 million on Jets +3.5 (-160) vs. Dolphins.
The Jets actually closed as 2.5-point underdogs. So the bettor played an alternate spread of +3.5, hence the -160 price.
Not that it mattered either way. From midway through the second quarter on, New York wasn’t covering either number and lost 27-21. So that was a massive donation to the house.
And speculating a bit: The wager might’ve come from the same high-roller who put nearly $2 million on Penn State moneyline -175 vs. Oregon. That’s two seven-figure wipeouts, totaling more than $3 million, in basically 48 hours, from Saturday night through Monday night.
Oof.
On the flip side, a DraftKings Sportsbook customer put down a miles-more-modest $100 bet on a two-leg player-prop parlay:
- Darren Waller to score the first touchdown in the Dolphins’ game vs. the Jets
- Bo Nix to score the first TD in the Broncos’ game against the Bengals
The odds for that were a hefty +36300, or in easier-to-read terms, 363/1. And the bet hit, for a $36,300 profit. It’s hard to beat that kind of ROI.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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