Prime time has been no country for NFL favorites of late.
Underdogs are not only covering the spread, but winning outright, with a 6-1 mark in the last seven night kickoffs.
But the public betting masses are often slow to adapt, finding it hard to move off favorites. That might again be the case with NFL Week 7 odds. Even if bettors get on the ‘dogs now, they might’ve missed the window of opportunity.
“We’ll see the public adapt to these trends, but sometimes it’s too late,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
The Buccaneers–Lions Monday night clash could serve as a good test to the latest trend.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Tampa Bay-Detroit and other intriguing games, as we dive into NFL Week 7 betting nuggets.
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Monday Money
Tampa Bay is among the pleasant surprises of the season, sitting at 5-1 straight up (SU) and 4-2 against the spread (ATS). That’s actually better than Detroit (4-2 SU and ATS), which played in prime time during Week 6, as well, losing to the Kansas City Chiefs 30-17.
In fact, the Lions — 2.5-point underdogs to K.C. — are the only ‘dog to lose in the past seven prime-time kicks, a stretch that started with the 49ers’ upset of the Rams in the Week 5 Thursday night game.
In NFL Week 7 odds, Caesars opened the Lions -5.5, dipped to -4.5 on Monday, then Tuesday returned to -5.5, where the line stood Wednesday afternoon. And bettors are on the home favorite so far, at least on the point spread.
A key reason why: Detroit is a spread-covering machine, going 39-14-1 ATS in its last 54 games (41-13 SU).
“We’re still seeing Lions money here,” Feazel said. “If people like the Bucs, they’re taking the Tampa moneyline. And the Lions, outside of last Sunday night, they just cover. So they’re taking the Lions on the spread.
“Bucs moneyline is making a bigger impact, because they’re +200. So we’re looking for that Super Bowl middle thus far: A Lions win and a Bucs cover.”
With regard to this point spread, definitely keep an eye on injury updates. Detroit’s banged-up secondary was an issue in the loss to Kansas City. Tampa wideouts Emeka Egbuka and Mike Evans are questionable with hamstring injuries, while wideout Chris Godwin (leg) and running back Bucky Irving (foot) are unlikely to play.
NFL Rocks on FOX
FOX has two of the more intriguing games in Week 7 NFL odds: Eagles–Vikings at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, followed by Commanders-Cowboys at 4:25 p.m. ET.
The Eagles (4-2 SU/3-3 ATS) are on a surprising two-game slide, but are a little more rested. Philly lost to the New York Giants 34-17 in the Week 5 Thursday night game, with the Eagles 7.5-point road favorites.
Caesars opened the Eagles -2.5 vs. the Vikings (3-2 SU and ATS), who are coming off a bye after two overseas games. As of Wednesday afternoon, Philadelphia is down to -1.5 on the road.
“It will be interesting to see which side gets support. I think these are two teams the public really doesn’t like,” Feazel said. “I expect to see Eagles action come Sunday, just due to their star power.”
Similarly, Washington (3-3 SU and ATS) has moved from a 2.5-point road favorite to -1.5 vs. Dallas (2-3-1 SU/3-3 ATS).
“The Cowboys are one of those teams we see money on, week in and week out,” Feazel said. “It’s been one-way traffic on the home ‘dog so far, and I would expect to see that continue.”
Some of that traffic is sharp action on Dallas +2.5.
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay got to the pay window last week with Pittsburgh -4.5 vs. Cleveland, as the Steelers won 23-9. This week, he’s on a much more high-profile game: Monday night’s Bucs vs. Lions matchup.
Sharp bettors don’t always win. In fact, they constantly grind, and if they can even hit 56% against the spread, that’s considered good. What the smart set does consistently is find and bet on the best numbers.
McKay did that this week, grabbing the Buccaneers +6 at Circa Sports. No other U.S. sportsbook has gone higher than 5.5 as of Wednesday afternoon, and Circa only offered 6 for about four hours Tuesday.
“I can’t resist taking +6 here, with how Baker Mayfield and the offense have been looking for Tampa. Hopefully, Todd Bowles’ defense can have success against the Lions, like Kansas City did on Monday night,” McKay said.
Recency Bias
Sunday night’s Falcons–49ers tilt could present a common case in NFL wagering: Bettors remembering best what they say last.
And that was the Falcons dispatching the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills on Monday night. Atlanta (3-2 SU and ATS) notched a 24-14 upset as a 3.5-point home underdog.
On the flip side, the 49ers were 3.5-point road ‘dogs vs. Tampa and lost 30-19. Plus, the Niners were dealt another big injury, with linebacker Fred Warner (broken ankle) done for the season.
San Fran QB Brock Purdy (toe) missed Weeks 2, 3, 5 and 6, and he’s questionable this week. Also questionable are wideouts Jauan Jennings (ribs/ankle)) and Ricky Pearsall (knee).
“Obviously, the Falcons were very impressive, and you can see it in the market,” Feazel said, noting the 49ers opened -3, got down to -2 early Wednesday and were at -2.5 on Wednesday afternoon. “But that’s also reflective of the 49ers’ injuries.
“I would not be surprised to see a lot of Falcons money in this spot. But we usually see a lot of Niners money in Nevada, too. It’ll probably be two-way action, and we’ll need the Under.”
Indeed, the total is already up to 47.5 from a 45.5 opener.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
BetMGM saw a couple of notable bets drop on NFL futures odds from the same customer:
- $5,000 Steelers +5000 to win the Super Bowl
- $5,000 Steelers +2000 to win the AFC
Both those wagers came in before Pittsburgh’s 23-9 Week 5 home win over Cleveland, moving the Steelers to a definitely unexpected 5-1 SU on the season. BetMGM now has Pittsburgh at +3000 to win the Super Bowl and +1300 to win the AFC.
Neither bet is likely to cash, but if Aaron Rodgers has a dream final season, then the reality will be superb for this bettor.
An AFC title would net $100,000 profit (total payout $105,000), and a Steelers Lombardi Trophy would profit $250,000 (total payout $255,000).
And per usual, we’ve got some leftover bets from Week 5’s Monday night double-dip, from DraftKings Sportsbook:
- $100,000 Bills -4.5 vs. Falcons. As noted above, Buffalo lost outright 24-14. So that’s a six-figure donation to the house.
- $42,000 Falcons +4.5 (-105) vs. Bills. Atlanta didn’t even need the points. The bettor profited $40,000 (total payout $82,000).
- $30,000 Bears moneyline +205 vs. Commanders. The customer needed a Chicago upset and got it, 25-24, banking $61,500 in profit (total payout $91,500).
We also like little bets that pay relatively big, and Monday night saw two parlays do so.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, a customer put five bucks on a two-leg parlay of the first touchdown scorer in each game: Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier (+1100) and Bears QB Caleb Williams (+2000).
Add up those two long-ish shots, and you get odds of +25100, or in easier-to-digest terms, 251/1. So that $5 turned into $1,260.
Better still, a DraftKings customer put $25 on a three-leg parlay of anytime TD scorers, while the Bears-Commanders game was going on. The in-game wager was on Washington’s Zach Ertz and Luke McCaffrey, and Chicago’s D’Andre Swift to each find the end zone.
McCaffrey got there late in the third quarter, Ertz followed early in the fourth quarter, and just one minute later, Swift scored on a 55-yard pass from Caleb Williams.
At odds of +37500 (375/1), the bettor profited $9,375 (total payout $9,400). That’s the kind of ROI I’m here for.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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