Before the annual Red River Rivalry game three years ago, the Oklahoma Sooners tried to pull a fast one on the Texas Longhorns.
The Sooners’ quarterback at the time was Dillon Gabriel, and he was expected to miss the game after suffering a concussion the previous week. But Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables sent Gabriel out in full pads with the starters for warmups.
Late money on the Sooners flooded the market and sportsbooks suddenly found themselves rooting for Texas after days of a balanced ledger.
“Oh, I remember,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews told me from Las Vegas. “We wrote a bunch of Oklahoma money at the wire. Then the quarterback ran out of the tunnel in gym shorts at kickoff.”
Gabriel didn’t play and Texas clobbered OU 49-0.
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This year, Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer is the mystery man, as he progresses from surgery on his throwing hand two weeks ago.
ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported that Mateer is “pushing to return” for Saturday’s game. As we’ve learned with Venables, though, it’s a guessing game.
“I have no idea if he’s playing,” Andrews said before a laugh. “First, he was likely to miss. Now, he’s pushing to play. If he can go, he’s gonna go.”
Bettors recently pounced on Mateer Heisman Trophy prices, too. Multiple sportsbooks were offering 30-1 on Tuesday morning before Thamel’s report, and you’re lucky to find anything higher than 15-1 right now.
As for Saturday’s game, Texas opened as a 3-point favorite, but given the recent developments around Mateer, the line is down to Texas -1 and PK.
Feels cheap on the Horns, no?
To the professional ranks, Andrews loves what he’s seen from the Detroit Lions over the last four weeks. He’s truly impressed by Dan Campbell’s bunch.
“The Lions are arguably the best team in the NFL,” he said.
Detroit heads to Kansas City for Sunday Night Football, a game that will undoubtedly be a magnet for money across America. For every bettor looking to back the Chiefs off a loss, another will eye the Lions catching points.
Kansas City is currently -2/2.5 in market.
As an underdog, Detroit is 24-11(69%) ATS under Campbell. Trends don’t pay the rent until they do.
“I’m trying to stay under the market,” Andrews explained. “I want to be on the low end. I think the Lions are legit, and I’ve been anti-Chiefs all year.”
Why anti-Chiefs?
“I hate to use history as a blueprint, but betting against the Super Bowl loser has been really profitable,” he continued. “The Chiefs went 11-0 in one-score games last year, too. You just don’t figure that will continue.”
My FOX Sports teammate Geoff Schwartz has been chronicling the Chiefs’ lack of pass rush for quite some time. Look no further than Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence completing 72% of his throws Monday night and posting the best passer rating of his season against Kansas City.
Personally, I love the Lions in a six-point teaser.
Moving them from +2.5 to +8.5 — through the 3 and 7 — seems like a pretty decent proposition.
Who blows up a Lions-Broncos two-teamer?
Not the Jets.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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