There’s rain in sunny Southern California’s forecast this weekend, and I think the weather could impact the outcome of the Iowa–USC game.
There’s also a huge double-digit spread in the Purdue–Washington matchup, and some folks think the Huskies cover.
It’s me. I’m people.
Let’s dive into how I’m wagering on college football Week 12.
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There are two Washington Huskies teams: There’s the team that plays at home and the team that plays on the road.
Washington is 5-1 at home this season, with wins over Illinois and Rutgers by multiple touchdowns. The Huskies lost to Ohio State, but to be fair, everyone has lost to the Buckeyes. UW averages 38.8 points per game at home. It rushes for 200 yards per game at 5.22 yards per rush, plus averages nearly 280 yards passing in Husky Stadium.
Washington on the road is a much different team. That squad is 2-2 on the road, with wins over Washington State and Maryland — a game in which it needed 24 points late to overcome a 20-0 deficit. The Huskies’ other two road games are losses at Michigan and whatever last weekend was against Wisconsin.
The UW offense drops to 25 points per game when it is the away team, and it’s only that high because UW scored 59 at Washington State. It has yet to score more than 24 points on the road in conference games. No surprise, but the Huskies rush and pass for far fewer yards than they do in home games.
Again — a different team at home and a different team on the road.
Washington is back home against a Purdue team that’s bad and then some. The Boilermakers are 2-8, and they’ve lost those eight games in a row. They are 92nd in points per drive on offense and 107th on defense. They are about 90th on third down on both sides of the ball.
Purdue allows a ton of explosive plays and I’m worried about their run defense in this one.
Washington’s ability to control the line of scrimmage and have success with its rushing attack — which includes quarterback Demond Williams — is how the Huskies cover this game.
Purdue won’t be able to keep up. The Boilermakers allow a ton of pressure, and they turn the ball over a bunch.
PICK: Washington (-16.5) to win by more than 16.5 points
I’m going to convince myself of a few reasons to back Iowa here.
For starters, the Hawkeyes are not going to have a hangover after losing to Oregon and history is on my side. They lost to Iowa State and played well against Albany the following week. They lost to Indiana and beat Wisconsin 37-0 in their next game. Last season, they won all four games after a loss.
Iowa is built to not have hangover games.
The Hawkeyes win by brute force in the trenches and that’s a path to victory against USC. The Trojans just haven’t fared all that well against these styles of teams during the Lincoln Riley years. However, they play better at home in these games than on the road. It is supposed to rain in SoCal this weekend, which should help Iowa.
I also have to convince myself that USC’s high-powered offense will be stifled by Iowa.
The Trojans offense is first in yards per play and fourth in points per drive. USC is good on third down and gets a ton of explosives. And when it has played Big Ten defenses at home, it has fared well. Just look at the Michigan game this season.
Now, on paper, Iowa’s defense is built for anyone. The Hawkeyes are outstanding at limiting explosive plays, allowing the least amount of explosive runs this season. They keep everything in front of them while playing a high amount of zone coverage. They are more physical than USC at the point of attack and USC doesn’t have an all-world quarterback like past Riley teams.
My concern in this game is USC’s incredibly talented receiving group that can blow up any defense in the country. Can Iowa do enough on defense? The Hawkeyes did shut down both Indiana and Oregon’s offenses, but both games were at home.
Can Iowa play from behind or win a road game with zero passing threat? The Hawkeyes will have to shorten the game with their rushing attack and find targeted opportunities to pass the ball.
PICK: Iowa (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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