“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
Ouch — that’s what I have to say about last week.
But I’m looking forward to college football Week 13.
I’m excited because I always jump at an opportunity to bounce back. I’m also pumped because we’re a little bit closer to rivalry weekend.
For now, though, let’s look at what I’m on for the upcoming slate.
Last Week: 1-2
Season: 35-23-2
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Pittsburgh @ No. 16 Georgia Tech
Pat Narduzzi said he didn’t care about last week’s game against Notre Dame. He could lose 110-13 or whatever. The next two games were the ones that mattered. Well, the Panthers came close to losing that badly and now get to face a Tech defense which has allowed well over eight yards per play the last two games against NC State and Boston College. Go show us how much this one means, Coach Narduzzi!
PICK: Pittsburgh (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
No. 25 Arizona State @ Colorado
Jeff Sims & Co. are 7-point favorites on the road and likely in cold weather? Colorado has been terrible lately, but this is the only side you can play here.
PICK: Colorado (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright
Louisville lost last Friday to Clemson in a game that nobody appeared to want to win. Miller Moss kind of called his team out after, and I’d expect the Cards to play much better this week against an SMU offense that has been hit-or-miss this season.
PICK: Louisville (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
Mercer is 90th in the Sagarin ratings, which is 32 spots better than South Alabama, which Auburn beat by just 16 points earlier this season. Albeit against FCS competition, the 9-1 Bears have won their last four games by 62, 52, 49 and 63 points. Nothing would represent Auburn’s season like a close call against Mercer and then an upset win over Alabama next week.
PICK: Mercer (+28) to lose by fewer than 28 points or win outright
UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON THE MONEYLINE
Last Week: 2-1, +2.1
Season: 22-30, +11.9
Pitt +120
Colorado +225
Louisville +120
BEAR BYTES
No. 11 BYU @ Cincinnati
Since joining the Big 12, BYU is 16-1 straight up (SU) as a favorite. The one loss came at home against Kansas last year as a 2.5-point favorite. That game featured a 9-0 BYU team vs. a 3-6 Kansas team. Cincinnati has forced a 3-and-out on just 17.1% of its Power 4 opponents drives. That’s the worst in the country.
No. 15 USC @ No. 7 Oregon
USC has lost eight straight (0-5 under Lincoln Riley) games as a road underdog. In its last 21 games as a road ‘dog, USC has pulled just two upsets (5-16 against the spread). This is the first November Big Ten game featuring two eight-win teams with an .800 win percentage that hasn’t involved Michigan or Ohio State since 2019, and that was when 9-2 Wisconsin beat 10-1 Minnesota. This is the first AP-ranked matchup between two Big Ten teams since Oct. 11. In that span, the SEC had 11 ranked matchups, the Big 12 had three and the ACC also joined the Big Ten with zero. Oregon has outgained Power 4 opponents by 212.5 yards per game this season and averages 7.3 yards per play, both best in the country.
No. 18 Michigan @ Maryland
In its last 13 games as a double-digit favorite, Michigan is 3-10 against the spread (ATS). However, the Wolverines have not been upset as a double-digit favorite since 2020. That’s good for 40 straight wins. Excluding the 2020 season, Michigan has won 58 straight games as a double-digit favorite dating back to a 2017 loss to Michigan State.
Charlotte @ No. 4 Georgia
Kirby Smart is 0-13-1 ATS as a 40-point favorite. The Bulldogs beat Austin Peay earlier this season 28-6 as a 46.5-point favorite.
Syracuse @ No. 9 Notre Dame
Syracuse has lost six straight by an average of 22.5 PPG since the win at Clemson, averaging 11.7 PPG in those six games.
No. 25 Arizona State @ Colorado
Since a 2-0 start in 2023, Colorado is 9-19 vs. Power 5 teams under Deion Sanders.
No. 13 Miami @ Virginia Tech
Excluding the 2020 COVID-shortened season, this is the first time since 2015 vs. Ohio State that Virginia Tech is a home underdog of at least 14 points. The last time the Hokies were this big of a home ‘dog in a conference game was 1992 Miami (+19.5). Miami has allowed 15.9 PPG vs. Power 4 teams this season. Only Ohio State (8.3), Texas Tech (12.5), Indiana (13.1) and Oregon (14.6) have allowed fewer. The Hurricanes sack differential vs P4 teams is +16, trailing only Texas A&M. Virginia Tech has a -75 second-half scoring margin vs. Power 4 teams. Only Boston College and Oklahoma State are worse. Miami’s Power opponents have gone 3-and-out 43.6% of the time. Only Oregon is better.
No. 20 Tennessee @ Florida
Florida has averaged 17.1 PPG this season vs. Power teams. Only five teams have scored fewer (Syracuse, North Carolina, Stanford, Oklahoma State and Wisconsin). The Gators’ 16 TO vs. Power teams is worse than all but Baylor, Purdue and Boston College. Tennessee hasn’t won in Gainesville since 2003. That’s 10 straight losses, eight by more than one score, seven by double digits and the last three by 22.7 PPG.
Rutgers @ No. 1 Ohio State
SUNJ has allowed 7.8 YPP vs. P4 opponents this season (worst in country). That’s nearly twice as much as Ohio State has allowed (4.1 YPP).
Arkansas @ No. 17 Texas
Arkansas has allowed 3.4 points per drive vs. Power 4 teams (worst in country). Among CFP top 15 teams, the worst offensive efficiency rating belongs to Oklahoma (42). It’s the only offense outside the top 30. The worst defensive efficiency ranks belong to Vanderbilt (62), USC (56) and Ole Miss (55). Those are the only three ranked outside the top 30.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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