One of the biggest games this weekend just happens to be USC at Oregon.
If you know anything about me, and about how proud I am to have played for the Ducks, then you might have a clue how I’m wagering on this matchup.
And don’t worry, there are a couple other games I’m eyeing for college football Week 13.
Let’s dive into it.
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As someone with no bias in this result, I’m here to tell you that Oregon is going to win and cover this game.
While roster construction doesn’t always tell the story of a game, I’m just here to inform the readers that Dan Lanning’s team is better. Oregon is superior at quarterback, running back, offensive line, defensive line, linebacker and in the secondary. USC is better at wide receiver and there’s no argument here. Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane are superstars and the engine of the USC offense.
Still, this game features two offenses that have similar stats but go about things vastly different ways.
The Trojans are second in yards per play and fifth in points per drive. They are eighth on third down and ninth in plays over 20 yards. They can run the ball and are effective when they rush, but it’s not their bread and butter. Their top receivers are how they move the chains.
Lemon has 71 catches for 1,090 yards, while Lane has 40 catches for nearly 600 yards. Quarterback Jayden Maiava excels at extending plays and finding these guys downfield. His time to throw is nearly three seconds, which is higher than average. USC’s offensive line is good, but if it is missing Elijah Paige at left tackle, which is a concern for them.
The Oregon offense is third in yards per play and sixth in points per drive. It is 13th on third down and first in the country in plays of 20 yards or more. The Ducks are a rushing machine behind their Joe Moore Award semifinalist offensive line and their trio of running backs. All three backs average at least 6.9 yards per carry with both Dierre Hill Jr. and Noah Whittington over eight yards a carry.
Quarterback Dante Moore played poorly against Indiana but has been good otherwise. Against Minnesota, he threw for 300 yards in the first game Oregon played that wasn’t in a downpour in nearly a month.
The difference in this matchup is the defense. That’s where Oregon is outstanding.
The Ducks have the No. 1 pass defense in the country behind their secondary and top-tier pass rush. They’re the best in the country at limiting explosive plays as well. It’s fair to point out they haven’t faced a passing attack like USC, but I still like their chances to slow down the Trojans.
SC’s passing game (and offense) is just far worse on the road. It has a 57% completion rate away from home and converts far less on third down. USC also allows more pressure and turns the ball over more on the road.
Oregon is beat up at wide receiver, but that hasn’t seemed to matter because of the Ducks’ balance. On the other hand, the Trojans’ potential injuries are big for them.
USC’s best defender is safety Kamari Ramsey. He’s a Day 2 NFL pick and the Trojans’ defensive playmaker. He got hurt against Iowa and didn’t return to the game.
SC has not won a road game as an underdog in the last eight opportunities, including at Notre Dame this season.
I’ll say it again: Oregon is just better and has more ways to win this game.
PICK: Oregon (-9.5) to win by more than 9.5 points
I like the Hawkeyes to dominate this game back at home after two straight difficult losses.
Iowa lost to Oregon by two and then to USC by five last weekend. One admirable quality about the Hawkeyes is that their style of play is not prone to letdown or emotion. They just beat the crap out of their opponents with their offensive and defensive lines.
They can’t pass the ball all that well, but that doesn’t matter much. Oh, and Michigan State is bad.
Sparty is 0-7 in Big Ten play and when it has played competent teams, it hasn’t been competitive at all.
There was the 38-13 loss to Indiana, the 31-20 loss to Michigan and then last weekend 28-10 to Penn State. Michigan State benched its starting quarterback and the current starter might be dealing with injuries as well.
I think Iowa gets back in the win column in a big way.
PICK: Iowa (-16.5) to win by more than 16.5 points
No. 25 Arizona State @ Colorado
This side is gross, but it’s the right side.
Colorado is 3-7 and out of contention for a bowl game, but got a spark from freshman JuJu Lewis in its last game.
The true freshman quarterback made throws the Buffs hadn’t seen all season, and with a bye week to prepare for this game, I do expect the same performance or better.
Arizona State’s pass defense is fine, but the Sun Devils are 126th in pressure rate, and if they can’t rattle the freshman, he will produce yards.
Arizona State is playing Jeff Sims at quarterback after Sam Levitt was lost to injury. Sims is subpar and no surprise here, but he’s worse on the road. Colorado’s defense is awful, but I’m hoping we get a bad Sims game.
Also, ASU is 115th on third down and that doesn’t bode well for a road game. More than anything else, this is a bad spot for the Sun Devils.
It’s a look-ahead spot for a huge rivalry game against a good Arizona team next weekend. The Sun Devils are playing a late kickoff in the cold weather, which is not where they thrive.
PICK: Colorado (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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